???? 據(jù)2月24日Gulf Today報(bào)道，盡管令人頭暈?zāi)垦５挠蛢r(jià)暴跌，對(duì)許多交易員來(lái)說(shuō)仍是新鮮事物，但有傳言稱，到明年年底，油價(jià)可能再次突破每桶100美元。

????阿塞拜疆Socar Trading SA預(yù)測(cè)，全球基準(zhǔn)布倫特原油價(jià)格在未來(lái)18至24個(gè)月可能達(dá)到三位數(shù)，美國(guó)銀行預(yù)計(jì)，由于基本面改善和全球經(jīng)濟(jì)刺激，未來(lái)幾年可能突破每桶100美元。投機(jī)者也開(kāi)始行動(dòng)起來(lái)，增加了期權(quán)市場(chǎng)對(duì)油價(jià)將在2022年12月之前達(dá)到所預(yù)期的水平的押注。

????這些觀點(diǎn)是非常樂(lè)觀的，但它們強(qiáng)調(diào)了在布倫特原油價(jià)格在一起期間跌至18年低點(diǎn)后上漲超過(guò)200%后，石油市場(chǎng)的信心有所增強(qiáng)。主要亞洲市場(chǎng)的需求已經(jīng)反彈，而歐佩克+正在削減石油產(chǎn)量，而投資的缺乏也在遏制頁(yè)巖油氣的供應(yīng)。高盛集團(tuán)本周將第三季度預(yù)期上調(diào)10美元，至每桶75美元。

????近幾日，對(duì)2022年12月布倫特原油合約油價(jià)升至每桶100美元以上的期權(quán)押注大幅增加，過(guò)去一周未平倉(cāng)看漲頭寸從500升至3950。

????在許多交易員的心目中，每桶100美元的價(jià)格事是一個(gè)特殊的大關(guān)口，此前，由于新興市場(chǎng)的強(qiáng)勁需求吸引鉆探者進(jìn)入成本更加昂貴的地區(qū)，從深海海底到加拿大偏遠(yuǎn)的瀝青砂，石油價(jià)格在這一水平上徘徊了幾年。

????2014年，美國(guó)頁(yè)巖油氣公司證明了他們可以以低得多的成本開(kāi)采大量能源，這一時(shí)代結(jié)束了。不過(guò)，盡管自那以后，市場(chǎng)已經(jīng)無(wú)法達(dá)到所吹噓的價(jià)格水平，但交易員們并沒(méi)有忘記這一點(diǎn)。就在兩年多前，主要的貿(mào)易公司仍是預(yù)測(cè)會(huì)達(dá)到每桶100美元，但最終卻遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)低于這個(gè)數(shù)字。

????市場(chǎng)對(duì)每桶100美元的預(yù)期與目前市場(chǎng)的普遍預(yù)期相差甚遠(yuǎn)。彭博社分析師預(yù)測(cè)顯示，布倫特原油將在2025年前保持在每桶65美元以下，并且能否維持在這一水平仍存疑。彭博社的數(shù)據(jù)顯示，歐佩克的減產(chǎn)是人為的，一旦全球需求從一起中復(fù)蘇，該組織就有足夠的閑置產(chǎn)能來(lái)滿足任何供應(yīng)的缺口。

????王佳晶 摘譯自 Gulf Today

????原文如下：

????Oil prices to rise to $100? Rumblings are starting to emerge

????While oil’s dizzying collapse is still fresh for many traders, rumblings are starting to emerge that by the end of next year prices could once again top $100 a barrel.

????Azerbaijan’s Socar Trading SA predicts global benchmark Brent could hit triple digits in the next 18 to 24 months, and Bank of America sees potential spikes above $100 over the next few years on improving fundamentals and global stimulus. Speculators are also getting in on the action, increasing bets in the options market that oil will reach the vaunted level by December 2022.

????The views are ultra bullish, but they highlight increased confidence in the oil market after Brent rallied more than 200% after hitting an 18-year low during the pandemic. Demand has bounced back in key Asian markets, while OPEC+ is withholding barrels and a lack of investment is keeping shale supplies at bay. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. this week lifted its third-quarter forecast by $10 to $75 a barrel.

????Option bets on oil prices rising above $100 for the December 2022 Brent contract have jumped in recent days, with open interest on the calls rising from 500 to 3,950 in the past week.

????The $100 mark occupies a special place in the mind of many traders, as oil hovered around that level for several years in the early part of last decade as strong demand from emerging markets enticed drillers into ever more expensive locales, from deep ocean beds to Canada’s remote tar sands.

????That era ended in 2014, when U.S. shale firms proved they could pump massive amounts at far lower costs. But while the vaunted price level has been out of the market’s reach since then, it hasn’t been out of traders’ minds. It was just a little more than two years ago that major trading houses made $100 projections that ended up falling far short.

????Forecasts for $100 are far from the current consensus. The median analyst forecast compiled by Bloomberg has Brent staying below $65 a barrel through 2025. And there are plenty of reasons to be skeptical of such a resurgence. For one, the OPEC cuts that have limited supply are artificial, and the cartel has enough spare capacity to meet any shortfall should demand rocket following a worldwide recovery from the pandemic, according to Bloomberg Intelligence.