???? 據(jù)2月23日Rigzone報(bào)道，由于投資銀行和交易員預(yù)測(cè)市場(chǎng)將進(jìn)一步收緊，推高了油價(jià)，油價(jià)上漲至每桶63美元。
????周二，紐約期貨市場(chǎng)上漲1.3%，前一交易日漲幅超過4%。根據(jù)摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)的數(shù)據(jù)，市場(chǎng)正走向至少是2000年以來最緊張的一個(gè)季度，而Socar Trading SA認(rèn)為，由于新冠肺炎疫情期間積累的過剩庫存將在夏季枯竭，全球基準(zhǔn)布倫特原油價(jià)格今年將達(dá)到每桶80美元。
????托克集團(tuán)(Trafigura Group)表示，隨著全球大部分地區(qū)擺脫封鎖限制，美國(guó)石油產(chǎn)量在大幅凍結(jié)后的減產(chǎn)也將有助于市場(chǎng)堅(jiān)挺。在寒流導(dǎo)致一些最大的煉油廠面臨緩慢而混亂的重啟之后，從亞洲流向美國(guó)的燃料將有所增加。
????在沙特阿拉伯承諾在2月和3月單方面額外削減每日100萬桶石油后，石油價(jià)格今年大幅上漲。高盛集團(tuán)預(yù)計(jì)，隨著需求超過全球供應(yīng)，油價(jià)將加速上漲。然而，俄羅斯和利雅得下周將再次參加歐佩克+會(huì)議，它們?cè)谙蚴袌?chǎng)供應(yīng)原油的問題上意見不同。
????Axi全球首席全球市場(chǎng)策略師斯蒂芬?英尼斯(Stephen Innes)表示:“隨著投資者毫不掩飾地傾向于看漲預(yù)期，石油行業(yè)的積極勢(shì)頭仍在繼續(xù)，樂觀遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)多于恐懼?！?/p>
????在價(jià)格方面。紐約商品交易所4月交貨的西德克薩斯中質(zhì)原油價(jià)格上漲82美分，至每桶62.52美元。周一上漲了4.1%。3月份的合約在上漲3.8%后于周一到期。
????歐洲期貨交易所4月份交割的布倫特原油價(jià)格上漲1.5%，至每桶66.22美元，前一交易日上漲3.7%。
????布倫特原油現(xiàn)貨價(jià)差在看漲現(xiàn)貨溢價(jià)結(jié)構(gòu)中穩(wěn)固，達(dá)到一年多來的最高水平。周二，價(jià)差升至每桶1美元以上，隨后回落至96美分。相比之下，本月初為25美分。
????摩根士丹利在一份報(bào)告中稱，今年迄今全球石油市場(chǎng)每日供應(yīng)不足280萬桶，將布蘭特原油第三季度價(jià)格預(yù)估調(diào)高至每桶70美元。高盛已將同期預(yù)估價(jià)格調(diào)高至每桶75美元，而Socar表示，未來18-24個(gè)月可能達(dá)到每桶100美元。
????托克石油貿(mào)易聯(lián)席主管本·盧科克（Ben Luckock）表示，市場(chǎng)可能低估了美國(guó)寒流的影響，2月份約有4000萬桶石油產(chǎn)量將無法完成生產(chǎn)，其中大部分來自二疊紀(jì)盆地。
????王佳晶 摘譯自 Rigzone
????原文如下：
????Oil Up with Tightening Market Boosting Outlook
????Oil rose toward $63 a barrel with investment banks and traders predicting the market will tighten further and push prices higher.
????Futures in New York gained 1.3% on Tuesday after climbing more than 4% in the previous session. The market is heading toward what could be the tightest quarter since at least 2000, according to Morgan Stanley, while Socar Trading SA sees global benchmark Brent hitting $80 this year as the glut of inventories built up during the Covid-19 pandemic is drained by the summer.
????The loss of oil output after the big freeze in the U.S. will also help the market firm as much of the world emerges from lockdowns, according to Trafigura Group. Fuel flows from Asia to the U.S. have gained after the cold blast left some of the biggest refineries facing a slow and messy restart.
????Oil has surged this year after Saudi Arabia pledged to unilaterally cut 1 million barrels a day in February and March, with Goldman Sachs Group Inc. predicting the rally will accelerate as demand outpaces global supply. Russia and Riyadh, however, will next week once again head into an OPEC+ meeting with differing opinions about adding more crude to the market.
????“The positive momentum continues in the oil complex, with investors unabashedly predisposed to a bullish view,” said Stephen Innes, global chief global market strategist at Axi. “There is far more optimism than fear.”
????Prices
????West Texas Intermediate for April delivery gained 82 cents to $62.52 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange at 7:40 a.m. London time after jumping 4.1% on Monday.
????The March contract expired Monday after rising 3.8%.
????Brent for April settlement added 1.5% to $66.22 on the ICE Futures Europe exchange are climbing 3.7% in the previous session.
????Brent’s prompt timespread firmed in a bullish backwardation structure to the widest in more than a year. The gap rose above $1 a barrel on Tuesday before easing to 96 cents. That compares with 25 cents at the start of the month.
????The global oil market has been under-supplied by 2.8 million barrels a day so far this year, Morgan Stanley said in a note, boosting its Brent forecast for the third quarter to $70 a barrel. Goldman has raised its estimate for the same period to $75, while Socar said $100 was possible in the next 18 to 24 months.
????The market is likely underestimating the impact from the U.S. cold snap, Trafigura’s co-head of oil trading Ben Luckock said in a Bloomberg Television interview. Some 40 million barrels of February oil output -- largely from the Permian Basin -- will not be produced due to the freeze, he said.
