???? 據(jù)Oil Now 3月29日報(bào)道，Rystad Energy在一份報(bào)告中表示，對(duì)于石油和天然氣公司來說，2021年是一個(gè)積極的開始，實(shí)際上這可能是該行業(yè)創(chuàng)收最好的一年。在過去的12個(gè)月里，油價(jià)大幅上漲，目前交易價(jià)格為60美元。同時(shí)，公司繼續(xù)關(guān)注資本紀(jì)律，繼去年投資下降30％后，今年的投資略有增加。油價(jià)的上漲和投資的限制導(dǎo)致石油和天然氣生產(chǎn)商的自由現(xiàn)金流（FCF）大大增加。
????Rystad Energy稱去年運(yùn)營現(xiàn)金減少了近2000億美元，降幅約為35％。這意味著這些公司可用于開展新活動(dòng)和向其所有者支付現(xiàn)金的現(xiàn)金較少。而去年的投資也下降了，下降了近1100億美元，降幅約為30％。
????今年運(yùn)營現(xiàn)金預(yù)計(jì)會(huì)卷土重來，在Rystad Energy的基礎(chǔ)案例中，布倫特原油價(jià)格為每桶54美元，上市公司的運(yùn)營現(xiàn)金預(yù)計(jì)將達(dá)到5000億美元左右，比去年增長了30％。
????“然而用于投資的現(xiàn)金預(yù)計(jì)今年不會(huì)恢復(fù)，并且可能會(huì)繼續(xù)與去年持平。” 總部位于挪威的咨詢集團(tuán)表示。
????無論能源轉(zhuǎn)型的情況如何，Rystad Energy預(yù)計(jì)全球石油需求將在2028年達(dá)到每天1.02億桶的峰值，然后在2050年下降至約6200萬桶。但重要的是目前供應(yīng)量不足以滿足這一需求。因此，邊境盆地的勘探是關(guān)鍵，同時(shí)也伴隨著風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。
????Rystad Energy表示：“我們已基于多個(gè)參數(shù)分析了與邊界勘探相關(guān)的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)和影響，包括石油系統(tǒng)、環(huán)境和政治因素，以及公司的興趣與否。
????圭亞那的低盈虧平衡價(jià)格、高質(zhì)量原油和有利的投資環(huán)境使其成為深水勘探和生產(chǎn)的首選目的地， 這種情況在美國石油巨頭埃克森美孚的帶領(lǐng)下有增無減。
????該公司最近承包了其第六艘鉆井船——Noble Sam Croft，用于今年的生產(chǎn)和評(píng)估鉆井財(cái)富。分析師稱，這將是圭亞那海上鉆井的最高紀(jì)錄。
????這家石油巨頭已經(jīng)發(fā)現(xiàn)了90多億桶原油，它不僅在高產(chǎn)的Stabroek區(qū)塊，還在其鄰近的土地（例如Canje區(qū)塊）尋求更多石油。目前Canje區(qū)塊已經(jīng)在進(jìn)行2021年的三口井計(jì)劃。
????陳可可 摘譯自 Oil Now
????原文如下：
????Cash flow bonanza for upstream industry in 2021, Guyana remains advantaged
????The year 2021 has started out on a positive note for oil and gas companies – in fact, this might be the best year yet in terms of generating cash for the industry, Rystad Energy said in a report. Oil prices have strengthened considerably over the last 12 months and are currently trading in the $60s. Simultaneously companies are continuing to focus on capital discipline, have made only a modest increase in investments this year, following the 30% drop last year. The oil price growth and investment restraint have resulted in a considerable increase in free cash flows (FCF) for the oil and gas producers.
????“Last year, cash from operations dropped almost $200 billion or around 35%. This implies that the companies had less cash available to finance new activity and pay out cash to their owners,” Rystad Energy said. “As a result, investments also dropped last year, falling by almost $110 billion or around 30%.”
????This year, the cash from operations is expected to make a comeback, and in Rystad Energy’s base case with Brent price at $54 per barrel (bbl), the cash from operations for public companies is expected to reach around $500 billion, an increase of more than 30% compared to last year.
????“However, the cash going into investments is not expected to recover this year and is likely to continue at the same level as last year,” the Norway-based consultancy group said.
????Regardless of energy transition scenarios, Rystad Energy expects global oil demand will peak at 102 million barrels per day in 2028, before declining to about 62 million bpd by 2050. Significant, however, is that available supply falls short of meeting this demand. Therefore, exploration of frontier basins is key – and it comes with risks.
????“We have analyzed the risks and impact associated with frontier exploration based on multiple parameters, including the petroleum system, environmental and political factors, as well as interest – or lack thereof – from companies,” Rystad Energy stated.
????Guyana’s low breakeven prices, high quality crude and favourable investment climate have made it a preferred destination for deepwater exploration and production, and this is continuing unabated, led by U.S oil major ExxonMobil.
????The company recently contracted its 6th drill ship – the Noble Sam Croft – for a production and appraisal drilling bonanza this year which analyst say will be a record for Guyana offshore.
????The oil major has already found more than 9 billion barrels of crude and is gunning for more, not just at the prolific Stabroek Block, but at its adjacent acreages, such as the Canje Block where a three-well programme for 2021 is already underway.
免責(zé)聲明：本網(wǎng)轉(zhuǎn)載自其它媒體的文章，目的在于弘揚(yáng)石化精神，傳遞更多石化信息，并不代表本網(wǎng)贊同其觀點(diǎn)和對(duì)其真實(shí)性負(fù)責(zé)，在此我們謹(jǐn)向原作者和原媒體致以敬意。如果您認(rèn)為本站文章侵犯了您的版權(quán)，請與我們聯(lián)系，我們將第一時(shí)間刪除。
