???? 據(jù)今日油價(jià)4月5日?qǐng)?bào)道，在過去的一個(gè)季度里，美國(guó)石油生產(chǎn)商對(duì)油價(jià)和需求的態(tài)度變得更加樂觀，并且已經(jīng)從去年的低谷開始增加了鉆井活動(dòng)。在2020年12月和2021年1月，原油產(chǎn)量穩(wěn)定在1110萬桶/天左右，而目前WTI原油價(jià)格超過60美元/桶，石油鉆機(jī)數(shù)量的增加預(yù)示著今年下半年的月度產(chǎn)量將上升。

????路透社專欄作家John Kemp表示，考慮到鉆井活動(dòng)在開始反映高油價(jià)之前還有幾個(gè)月的滯后時(shí)間，鉆井活動(dòng)與石油產(chǎn)量變化之間還有6個(gè)月的滯后時(shí)間，最早將在本季度將開始看到美國(guó)產(chǎn)量增加。

????如果美國(guó)油價(jià)維持在每桶60美元左右，今年下半年產(chǎn)量增長(zhǎng)可能進(jìn)一步加劇。在這個(gè)價(jià)格點(diǎn)上，美國(guó)頁(yè)巖區(qū)塊的許多開采都是有利可圖的。

????預(yù)計(jì)今年石油產(chǎn)量的增長(zhǎng)將只是漸進(jìn)的，因?yàn)樵S多大型上市生產(chǎn)商更愿意提高股東回報(bào)，而不是將現(xiàn)金流以外的資金投入到鉆井項(xiàng)目上。然而，一些私營(yíng)頁(yè)巖生產(chǎn)商可能會(huì)繼續(xù)為了產(chǎn)量增長(zhǎng)而增加鉆井。這是因?yàn)槊客?0-65美元的油價(jià)將在這些產(chǎn)量增加的水平上給他們的收入帶來相當(dāng)大的提升，特別是在沒有華爾街審查產(chǎn)出決定的情況下。

????分析人士表示，目前的鉆井活動(dòng)速度遠(yuǎn)低于去年年初，可能僅夠維持美國(guó)石油產(chǎn)量的穩(wěn)定。但每桶60美元的油價(jià)也不應(yīng)被低估。

????上周最新的達(dá)拉斯聯(lián)邦能源調(diào)查顯示，在美國(guó)所有產(chǎn)油區(qū)，新井的盈虧平衡價(jià)格在46美元/桶至58美元/桶之間，二疊紀(jì)盆地的盈虧平衡價(jià)格平均為50美元/桶。Enverus董事總經(jīng)理伊恩?尼布爾(Ian Nieboer)上月向英國(guó)《金融時(shí)報(bào)》表示:“在每桶65美元的油價(jià)下，沒有什么東西是行不通的。”他指出，新發(fā)現(xiàn)的規(guī)律可能會(huì)逐漸消失。

????美國(guó)石油鉆機(jī)數(shù)量顯示鉆井活動(dòng)正在恢復(fù)。貝克休斯最新的鉆機(jī)數(shù)量報(bào)告顯示，上周美國(guó)公司的鉆機(jī)數(shù)量達(dá)到了去年1月以來的最高水平，在一周內(nèi)增加了13臺(tái)鉆機(jī)。

????達(dá)拉斯聯(lián)儲(chǔ)調(diào)查顯示，2021年第一季度，石油和天然氣活動(dòng)強(qiáng)勁擴(kuò)張。六個(gè)月前景也明顯改善，該指數(shù)從2020年第四季度的21.6升至2021年第一季度的70.6，為該調(diào)查五年歷史上的最高水平。

????根據(jù)EIA的最新數(shù)據(jù)，2021年1月美國(guó)原油產(chǎn)量為1108萬桶/天，而2020年12月為1110萬桶/天，德克薩斯州1月原油產(chǎn)量環(huán)比增長(zhǎng)0.5%，至466.3萬桶/天。2月和3月的數(shù)據(jù)因德克薩斯州的冰凍天氣而下降，導(dǎo)致每日數(shù)百萬桶的石油生產(chǎn)關(guān)閉了一個(gè)多星期。

????從第二季度開始，溫暖的天氣、超過60美元/桶的油價(jià)以及顯著改善的前景將重振美國(guó)的鉆井活動(dòng)。由于油價(jià)上漲、鉆井活動(dòng)和產(chǎn)量增加的滯后，今年的收益可能微乎其微。然而，明年美國(guó)的平均產(chǎn)量可能高達(dá)1200萬桶/天。這是EIA在3月份的《短期能源展望》(STEO)中做出的最新預(yù)測(cè)。由于預(yù)期油價(jià)較高，EIA將2022年的日產(chǎn)量預(yù)期較2月份的預(yù)測(cè)上調(diào)50萬桶。當(dāng)然，美國(guó)的石油產(chǎn)量和高于預(yù)期的增長(zhǎng)速度不會(huì)被歐佩克及其盟國(guó)忽視。

????上個(gè)月，該聯(lián)盟基本上把減產(chǎn)時(shí)間延長(zhǎng)到了4月份，或多或少是押注于美國(guó)生產(chǎn)商將繼續(xù)限制產(chǎn)量。但本月，歐佩克+決定在未來三個(gè)月逐步恢復(fù)每月增產(chǎn)，增加的產(chǎn)量將超過100萬桶/天。這一決定在很大程度上是基于以下預(yù)期:隨著出行季的開始，以及主要經(jīng)濟(jì)體推出刺激經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的計(jì)劃，全球石油需求將會(huì)增強(qiáng)。

????如果美國(guó)鉆探活動(dòng)的增長(zhǎng)超過預(yù)期,歐佩克+可能再次陷入兩難境地：通過向市場(chǎng)投放更多石油，讓油價(jià)下滑；或者通過每月謹(jǐn)慎的上調(diào)石油供應(yīng)規(guī)模，繼續(xù)支撐油價(jià)，但會(huì)讓美國(guó)頁(yè)巖油占得便宜。

????王佳晶 摘譯自 今日油價(jià)

????原文如下：

????U.S. Oil Production Is about To Climb

????Over the past quarter, U.S. oil producers have turned much more optimistic about oil prices and demand and have already increased drilling activity from last year’s trough.

????Crude oil production has stabilized at around 11.1 million barrels per day (bpd) in December 2020 and January 2021, while current oil prices at over $60 per barrel WTI and rising numbers of oil-directed rigs point to monthly rises in output later this year.

????Considering that there is a lag of several months before drilling activity begins to reflect higher oil prices and another six-month lag between drilling activity trends and changes in oil production, the U.S. is about to start seeing increased output as early as this quarter, Reuters columnist John Kemp says.

????Output gains could further intensify in the second half of the year if U.S. oil prices hold around $60 a barrel. At this price point, many - if not all - areas in the U.S. shale patch are profitable to drill.

????The rise in oil production is expected to be only gradual this year because many large listed producers would prefer to improve shareholder returns instead of investing beyond their cash flows into drilling. However, some private shale producers could continue to boost drilling for production growth’s sake. This is because $60-65 oil would give a sizable boost to their revenues at those increased production levels, especially since they don’t have Wall Street scrutinizing (and punishing) their output decisions.

????The current pace of drilling activity is much lower than at the start of last year, and it is likely just enough to keep U.S. oil production stable, analysts say. But the ‘siren song’ of $60 oil shouldn’t be underestimated.

????Across all U.S. oil-producing regions, average breakeven prices to profitably drill a new well range from $46 to $58 per barrel, with breakeven prices in the Permian averaging $50 a barrel, the latest Dallas Fed energy survey for Q1 showed last week. “There’s nothing that doesn’t work at $65 a barrel,” Ian Nieboer, a managing director at Enverus, told the Financial Times last month, noting that the newly-found discipline could fade away.

????The U.S. oil rig count points to recovering drilling activity. American firms added last week the highest number of rigs, 13, in one week since January last year, the latest Baker Hughes Rig Count report showed.

????During the first quarter of 2021, oil and gas activity expanded strongly, the Dallas Fed survey showed. Six-month outlooks also improved notably, with the index rising from 21.6 in Q4 2020 to 70.6 in Q1 2021, which was the highest reading in the survey’s five-year history.

????As per the latest available EIA data, U.S. crude oil production stood at 11.08 million bpd in January 2021, compared to 11.1 million bpd in December 2020, with Texas oil production rising by 0.5 percent month over month to 4.663 million bpd in January.

????The figures in February and March will be lower due to the Texas Freeze, which shut in millions of barrels of oil production per day for more than a week.

????Beginning in the second quarter, warmer weather, $60-plus oil prices, and significantly improved outlooks are set to reinvigorate American drilling activity. This year’s gains could be minimal because of the lag from oil price hikes to drilling activity to production boost. Next year, however, U.S. production could average as much as 12 million bpd. That’s the latest EIA forecast from the March Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO). The EIA raised its 2022 production outlook by 500,000 bpd compared to the estimate from February because of higher expected oil prices.

????Of course, U.S. oil production and faster-than-expected increases will not go unnoticed by OPEC and its allies in the OPEC+ group.

????Last month, the alliance essentially rolled over the production cuts into April, more or less betting on continued restraint from American producers. But this month, OPEC+ decided it is gradually returning to monthly production hikes over the next three months for a total of more than 1 million bpd. Much of the decision was based on expectations that global oil demand will strengthen with the start of the driving season and with major economies rolling out packages to support growth.

????If U.S. drilling activity grows more than initially expected, OPEC+ could be caught between a rock and a hard place this summer, again: let oil prices slide by putting more oil on the market, or continue supporting oil prices with careful monthly increases, thus letting U.S. shale to take advantage.

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