據(jù)Oil & Gas Journal網(wǎng)站4月16日消息 雷斯塔能源預(yù)計(jì)2021年石油需求將同比增長(zhǎng)6%，從2020年的8960萬桶/日攀升至9540萬桶/日。估計(jì)顯示，2022年石油總需求將繼續(xù)上升，達(dá)到約9940萬桶/日。
預(yù)計(jì)2021年4月需求量將達(dá)到9300萬桶/日，5月和6月分別攀升至9400萬桶/日和9580萬桶/日。第三季度的石油總需求預(yù)計(jì)平均為9680萬桶/日，第四季度將升至9830萬桶/日。
雷斯塔能源預(yù)測(cè)，2021年全球道路燃料總需求將增長(zhǎng)9%，從2020年的4130萬桶/日增至4510萬桶/日。據(jù)預(yù)測(cè)，2022年道路燃料需求將加速至約4750萬桶/日。
預(yù)計(jì)4月份，全球道路燃油平均需求量為4420萬桶/日，5月份和6月份分別增至4490萬桶/日和4590萬桶/日。預(yù)計(jì)第三季度和第四季度的道路燃料平均需求分別為4620萬桶/日和4650萬桶/日。
在各種燃料行業(yè)中，噴氣燃料受到疫情的沖擊最為嚴(yán)重。雷斯塔能源預(yù)計(jì)，2021年噴氣燃料的平均需求量為390萬桶/日，比去年的320萬桶/日增長(zhǎng)21%，但與疫情前的水平仍相差甚遠(yuǎn)。大部分復(fù)蘇預(yù)計(jì)在2022年，隨著航空運(yùn)輸恢復(fù)到更正常的水平，航空燃油需求預(yù)計(jì)將為平均540萬桶/天。
預(yù)計(jì)4月份的航空燃油需求量將達(dá)到340萬桶/日，5月份和6月份分別增至360萬桶/日和390萬桶/日。進(jìn)一步預(yù)測(cè)，第三季度和第四季度的航空燃油平均需求分別為430萬桶/日和460萬桶/日。
王磊 摘譯自 Oil & Gas Journal
原文如下：
Rystad: Road fuels lead global oil demand recovery in 2021
Rystad Energy projects a 6% year-on-year increase in oil demand in 2021, climbing to an average of 95.4 million b/d from 89.6 million b/d in 2020. The estimates show that total oil demand in 2022 will continue to rise, reaching about 99.4 million b/d.
April 2021 demand is expected to land at 93 million b/d, climbing to 94 million b/d in May and 95.8 million b/d in June. Further ahead, total oil demand in the third quarter is expected to average 96.8 million b/d before ascending to 98.3 million b/d in the fourth quarter.
Total global demand for road fuels will rise by 9% in 2021, Rystad forecast, to 45.1 million b/d, from 41.3 million b/d in 2020. Road fuel demand is forecast to accelerate in 2022 to about 47.5 million b/d.
In April, road fuel demand is expected to average 44.2 million b/d globally, rising to 44.9 million b/d in May and 45.9 million b/d in June. Further ahead, road fuel demand is expected to average 46.2 million b/d in the third quarter and 46.5 million b/d in the fourth quarter.
Among the various fuel sectors, jet fuel has been hit the hardest by the pandemic. Rystad expects jet fuel demand to average 3.9 million b/d in 2021, rising by 21% from 3.2 million b/d last year, but still a far cry from pre-pandemic levels. Most of the recovery is expected during 2022, when jet fuel demand is expected to average 5.4 million b/d as air traffic returns to more normal levels.
Jet fuel demand in April is expected to reach 3.4 million b/d, rising to 3.6 million b/d in May and 3.9 million b/d in June. Further ahead, jet fuel demand is expected to average 4.3 million b/d in the third quarter and 4.6 million b/d in the fourth quarter.
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