據(jù)6月1日Oil Monster消息：全球最大的石油出口國沙特阿拉伯預(yù)計將小幅提高7月亞洲輕質(zhì)原油官方售價(OSPs)，盡管原油基準(zhǔn)走強(qiáng)，但利潤率疲弱和需求不確定性限制了其上行勢頭。

　　亞洲五家煉油商的消息人士預(yù)計，沙特旗艦級阿拉伯輕質(zhì)原油7月OSP將上漲10美分/桶，他們的預(yù)測從不變到上漲20美分不等。

　　阿拉伯輕質(zhì)原油的預(yù)期調(diào)整跟隨中東原油基準(zhǔn)Cash Dubai和DME Oman的價格走勢，5月份它們對迪拜掉期的溢價分別比4月份上漲了14美分和8美分。

　　但三名受訪者表示，亞洲煉油利潤率的疲弱，尤其是燃料油的利潤率，預(yù)計將導(dǎo)致7月份沙特較重原油品級的原油價格下降。

　　他們預(yù)計阿拉伯中型原油價格每桶將下降10-30美分，阿拉伯重型原油價格每桶將下降40-70美分。

　　亞洲5月下半月極低硫燃料油價格大幅下跌至五個月低點(diǎn)，因市場擔(dān)心現(xiàn)貨燃料和發(fā)電行業(yè)供應(yīng)充足而需求疲弱。

　　隨著亞洲部分地區(qū)新型冠狀病毒感染病例急劇增加，人們對交通燃料的需求引發(fā)擔(dān)憂，新的出行限制措施在5月份令亞洲對汽油的需求受到打擊。

　　上個月，由于西方需求復(fù)蘇相對較快，推動了亞洲以外的套利出貨，汽油和航空燃料受益于煉油利潤率的提高，但在幾個地區(qū)市場，它們也因疫情引發(fā)的需求疲軟而陷入困境。

　　市場的注意力還集中在石油輸出國組織及其盟友 (歐佩克+) 周二舉行的會議上，其中產(chǎn)油國可能會堅持緩慢放松供應(yīng)限制。

　　沙特原油期貨合約通常在每月的5號左右發(fā)布，并為科威特和伊拉克的價格設(shè)定了趨勢，影響到每天運(yùn)往亞洲的1200多萬桶原油。

　　國有石油巨頭沙特阿美根據(jù)客戶的建議設(shè)定原油價格，并根據(jù)產(chǎn)量和產(chǎn)品價格計算過去一個月石油價值的變化，確定其原油價格。

　　沙特阿美官員出于政策考慮，不對每月的運(yùn)營業(yè)績發(fā)表評論。

　　馮娟 摘譯自 Oil Monster

　　原文如下：

　　Saudi Arabia Expected to Raise July Light Crude Prices for Asia

　　Top oil exporter Saudi Arabia is expected to slightly increase its July official selling prices (OSPs) of light crude for Asia, as margin weakness and demand uncertainty cap the upside despite stronger crude benchmarks, a Reuters survey showed.

　　Sources at five Asian refiners on average expected the July OSP for Saudi flagship grade Arab Light to rise by 10 cents a barrel, with their forecasts ranging between no change to an increase of up to 20 cents.

　　The expected adjustment for Arab Light tracked the price strength in Middle East crude oil benchmarks Cash Dubai and DME Oman, which in May saw their premiums to Dubai swaps up by 14 cents and 8 cents respectively from April.

　　But weakness in Asia's refining margins, also known as cracks, in particular for fuel oil, is expected to bring cuts in July OSPs for heavier Saudi crude grades, according to three of the respondents.

　　They forecast a price reduction of 10-30 cents a barrel for Arab Medium and a cut of 40-70 cents a barrel for Arab Heavy.

　　Asia's crack for 0.5% very low-sulphur fuel oil (VLSFO) fell sharply in the second half of May to five-month lows amid concerns of ample supplies and weak demand in the spot bunkering and power generation sectors.

　　Asia's crack for gasoline also took a beating in May as fresh mobility restrictions amid a sharp rise in coronavirus cases from new variants in parts of Asia raised demand concerns for transportation fuels.

　　Gasoil and jet fuel, which benefited from higher refining margins last month thanks to a relatively faster demand recovery in the West that was boosting arbitrage shipments out of Asia, also struggled with COVID-19-induced demand weakness in several regional markets.

　　The market's attention was also on a Tuesday meeting by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, a grouping known as OPEC+, in which the producers are likely to stick to a slow easing of supply curbs.

　　Saudi crude OSPs are usually released around the fifth of each month, and set the trend for Kuwaiti and Iraqi prices, affecting more than 12 million barrels per day (bpd) of crude bound for Asia.

　　State oil giant Saudi Aramco sets its crude prices based on recommendations from customers and after calculating the change in the value of its oil over the past month, based on yields and product prices.

　　Saudi Aramco officials as a matter of policy do not comment on the kingdom's monthly OSPs.

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