據(jù)今日油價(jià)7月6日?qǐng)?bào)道，石油市場(chǎng)正在趨緊，并將在今年剩余時(shí)間里繼續(xù)減少庫(kù)存。分析師和行業(yè)專業(yè)人士表示，減產(chǎn)的主要原因是歐佩克+在未來(lái)幾個(gè)月提供的供應(yīng)低于預(yù)期的需求增長(zhǎng)。歐佩克+預(yù)計(jì)將在8月至12月期間每日增產(chǎn)200萬(wàn)桶。前提是阿聯(lián)酋與其他國(guó)家在基線生產(chǎn)水平上的爭(zhēng)議僵局能夠得到解決，并在本周達(dá)成協(xié)議。由于歐佩克+取消了周一上午的會(huì)議，目前看來(lái)這樣的協(xié)議不太可能達(dá)成。

　　許多分析師認(rèn)為，隨著需求反彈，提議增加200萬(wàn)桶/天的供應(yīng)量(每月增加40萬(wàn)桶/天)將大大低于石油市場(chǎng)的需求。

　　全球最大的獨(dú)立石油交易商維托爾集團(tuán)(Vitol Group)認(rèn)為，盡管2021年剩余時(shí)間內(nèi)，石油供應(yīng)可能增長(zhǎng)，但全球石油市場(chǎng)將繼續(xù)收緊。

　　維多（Vitol）亞洲負(fù)責(zé)人邁克?穆勒（Mike Muller）周日在能源咨詢公司海灣情報(bào)（Gulf Intelligence）主辦的每日市場(chǎng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)研討會(huì)上表示：“我認(rèn)為有一點(diǎn)很肯定, 無(wú)論我們看到的歐佩克+增產(chǎn)產(chǎn)幅度有多小，都將是2021年下半年，滿足不斷增長(zhǎng)的需求所需數(shù)量的一小部分。”

　　穆勒指出:“如果我們按照上周提出的數(shù)字，即從8月到可預(yù)見(jiàn)的未來(lái)5個(gè)月，每月增產(chǎn)40萬(wàn)桶/天，那么現(xiàn)貨市場(chǎng)前景仍將是供不應(yīng)求。”全球石油庫(kù)存將繼續(xù)下降，因?yàn)槭袌?chǎng)對(duì)原油的需求將超過(guò)歐佩克+計(jì)劃在今年剩余時(shí)間內(nèi)增加的供應(yīng)。

　　荷蘭國(guó)際集團(tuán)（ING）策略師沃倫?帕特森（Warren Patterson）和姚文玉（Wenyu Yao），如果在12月前每月增產(chǎn)40萬(wàn)桶/天，將對(duì)油價(jià)起到支撐作用。

　　幾周以來(lái)，來(lái)自歐佩克（OPEC+）高層石油商的跡象和評(píng)論一直在暗示，聯(lián)盟不會(huì)過(guò)快地大幅降低減產(chǎn)水平，因?yàn)樗鼈兛赡芟Ｍ吹绞袌?chǎng)比平衡的市場(chǎng)更緊張一些。

　　沙特能源大臣阿卜杜勒-阿齊茲·本·薩勒曼親王在歐佩克+內(nèi)部發(fā)出了繼續(xù)保持謹(jǐn)慎的信號(hào)，他已經(jīng)警告交易者幾個(gè)月來(lái)不要做空石油。

　　薩勒曼6月初在俄羅斯的一個(gè)論壇上表示:“總是會(huì)有大量的供應(yīng)來(lái)滿足需求，但我們必須先看到需求，然后才能看到供應(yīng)。”

　　需求反彈已經(jīng)出現(xiàn)，美國(guó)的情況最為明顯。

　　根據(jù)GasBuddy的數(shù)據(jù)，7月2日，美國(guó)汽油需求創(chuàng)下疫情爆發(fā)以來(lái)的新高，較前一個(gè)周五飆升9.3%，為2019年以來(lái)的最高單日需求。此外，GasBuddy石油分析主管Patrick De Haan在推特上表示，7月3日美國(guó)汽油需求較前一個(gè)周六增長(zhǎng)1.9%，當(dāng)周需求增長(zhǎng)4.6%，為2019年8月以來(lái)最高水平。

　　對(duì)需求回升的預(yù)期令許多分析師看好石油市場(chǎng)，但其中很大一部分分析師警告稱，歐佩克+不會(huì)讓油價(jià)在每桶80美元上方過(guò)高。油價(jià)高于每桶80美元時(shí)將減緩需求增長(zhǎng)，而因通脹影響，正在反彈的經(jīng)濟(jì)體將受沖擊。

　　與此同時(shí)，世界第三大石油進(jìn)口國(guó)印度再次呼吁歐佩克+放松減產(chǎn)措施，并停止會(huì)威脅價(jià)格敏感買家的需求復(fù)蘇的油價(jià)上漲。

　　印度石油部長(zhǎng)普拉丹(Dharmendra Pradhan)表示，目前每桶75美元左右的油價(jià)對(duì)印度等對(duì)價(jià)格敏感的買家來(lái)說(shuō)是“具有挑戰(zhàn)性的”。他正在“說(shuō)服產(chǎn)油國(guó)朋友們”為一個(gè)合理的油價(jià)而努力。

　　盡管如此，歐佩克+在供應(yīng)協(xié)議上的爭(zhēng)吵導(dǎo)致的需求上升將推高油價(jià)，至少在油價(jià)測(cè)試需求破壞開(kāi)始的臨界值之前是這樣。

　　沙特國(guó)家銀行(Saudi National Bank)高級(jí)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家阿米爾汗(Amir Khan):表示“當(dāng)前環(huán)境對(duì)石油的需求是不斷上漲的，而供應(yīng)前景的不確定性也將導(dǎo)致價(jià)格上漲。”

　　王佳晶 摘譯自 今日油價(jià)

　　原文如下：

　　Oil Markets Will Tighten Regardless Of OPEC's Decision

　　The oil market is tightening and will continue to draw down inventories for the rest of the year. This drawdown is largely due to OPEC+ offering less supply than the expected demand growth in the coming months, analysts and industry professionals say. The OPEC+ group is expected to add 2 million barrels per day (bpd) between August and December. That is if the UAE-vs-all-others standoff on baseline production levels is resolved and a deal is sealed this week. Such a deal now looks unlikely as OPEC+ called off the meeting on Monday morning.

　　The proposed additional supply of 2 million bpd, in monthly installments of 400,000-bpd production increases, would be considerably less than the oil market would need as demand is bouncing back, according to many analysts.

　　The world’s biggest independent oil trader, Vitol Group, also believes that the global oil market will continue to tighten regardless of the fact that supply is likely to grow for the rest of 2021.

　　“I think there’s very little doubt that whatever lessening of the OPEC+ production cutbacks we see…it will be a fraction of the amount needed to meet growing demand in the second half of 2021,” Mike Muller, head of Vitol Asia, told a daily market webinar hosted by energy consultancy Gulf Intelligence on Sunday.

　　“If we end up with the numbers mooted last week, which was 400,000 bpd per month, August through the foreseeable next five months…we will still have a market which has an outlook for the spot months that will see more demand than supply,” Muller noted.

　　As a result, global oil stocks are set to continue drawing down because markets would need more crude oil than OPEC+ is planning to add for the rest of the year, he added.

　　A 400,000-bpd easing of the cuts each month until December would be supportive for oil prices, ING strategists Warren Patterson and Wenyu Yao said early on Monday.

　　For several weeks, indications and comments from the top oilmen in OPEC+ have been suggesting that the alliance would not ease production levels too much too soon, as they would likely want to see the market a bit tighter than what would be a balanced market.

　　The Saudi Energy Minister, Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman, has signaled continued caution within OPEC+ as he has been warning traders for months not to bet against oil.

　　“There will always be a good amount of supply to meet demand, but we’ll have to see demand before you see supply,” Abdulaziz bin Salman said at a forum in Russia in early June.

　　The demand rebound is already here, most evident in the United States.

　　According to GasBuddy data, U.S. gasoline demand on Friday before the July 4 weekend hit a new COVID high, surging by 9.3 percent from the previous Friday, the highest single day for demand since 2019. Moreover, U.S. gasoline demand on July 3 rose 1.9 percent from the prior Saturday, closing out the week (Sun-Sat) with weekly demand up 4.6 percent, the highest since August 2019, Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis for GasBuddy, tweeted this weekend.

　　Expectations of demand roaring back keep many analysts bullish on the oil market, although a large part of them warn that OPEC+ will not let oil prices run too much above $80. Oil above $80 would slow down demand growth and hurt rebounding economies with inflation.

　　Meanwhile, the world’s third-largest oil importer, India, called on OPEC+, again, to ease the cuts and stop the price rally threatening demand recovery from price-sensitive buyers.

　　Current prices, of around $75 a barrel, are “challenging” for price-sensitive buyers such as India, its Oil Minister Dharmendra Pradhan said last week, adding that he is “persuading [his] producer friends” to work for a reasonable oil price.

　　Still, rising demand amid OPEC+ quarrels about a supply agreement is set to push prices higher, at least until oil tests the threshold where demand destruction begins.

　　“We’re in an environment where demand is rising for oil. This uncertainty about the supply outlook will feed into higher prices,” Amir Khan, senior economist at Saudi National Bank, told Bloomberg Television on Sunday.

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