據(jù)7月8日oil now消息：由于本周主要產(chǎn)油國(guó)之間的談判破裂可能導(dǎo)致目前的產(chǎn)量協(xié)議被放棄，石油供應(yīng)出現(xiàn)不確定性，周四油價(jià)連續(xù)第三天下跌。
格林尼治時(shí)間06:44，布倫特原油期貨價(jià)格下跌23美分，至每桶73.20美元，跌幅0.3%；美國(guó)西德克薩斯中質(zhì)原油期貨價(jià)格下跌33美分，至每桶71.87美元，跌幅0.5%。
在歐佩克與其盟友之間的談判破裂后，布倫特原油價(jià)格自周一收盤以來(lái)下跌了約5%，因?yàn)閷?shí)際領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人沙特阿拉伯拒絕了阿聯(lián)酋根據(jù)該組織的減產(chǎn)協(xié)議提高產(chǎn)量的要求。
OANDA高級(jí)市場(chǎng)分析師Edward Moya表示：“石油市場(chǎng)正在關(guān)注8月的石油供應(yīng)短缺，并預(yù)計(jì)歐佩克+協(xié)議將在2022年4月協(xié)議到期之前破裂，因?yàn)槠渌蓡T國(guó)將要求進(jìn)一步讓步以確保更多的市場(chǎng)份額。”
自冠狀病毒大流行期間需求暴跌以來(lái)，歐佩克+已經(jīng)限制供應(yīng)一年多。
該組織維持每天近600萬(wàn)桶的減產(chǎn)，并有望增加供應(yīng)，但為期三天的會(huì)議未能消除沙特和阿聯(lián)酋之間的分歧。
三名歐佩克+消息人士周三表示，俄羅斯正試圖在沙特阿拉伯和阿聯(lián)酋之間進(jìn)行斡旋，以幫助達(dá)成一項(xiàng)提高石油產(chǎn)量的協(xié)議。
美國(guó)石油庫(kù)存的大幅下降為油價(jià)提供了一些支撐。
兩名市場(chǎng)消息人士援引美國(guó)石油協(xié)會(huì)(API)的數(shù)據(jù)稱，截至7月2日當(dāng)周，美國(guó)這個(gè)全球最大石油消費(fèi)國(guó)的石油庫(kù)存減少了800萬(wàn)桶，而路透調(diào)查分析師的預(yù)估為減少400萬(wàn)桶。
美國(guó)政府庫(kù)存數(shù)據(jù)將于周四公布，推遲至7月4日美國(guó)獨(dú)立日假期后的一天。
美國(guó)能源信息署周三表示，今年美國(guó)石油產(chǎn)量下降預(yù)計(jì)將有所緩解，日產(chǎn)量將為1110萬(wàn)桶，較2020年減少21萬(wàn)桶，而此前的預(yù)測(cè)為減少23萬(wàn)桶。
然而，對(duì)冠狀病毒的擔(dān)憂令油價(jià)承壓，全球第四大石油消費(fèi)國(guó)日本將宣布東京地區(qū)進(jìn)入緊急狀態(tài)，直至8月22日，因新一輪感染出現(xiàn)，韓國(guó)報(bào)告了有史以來(lái)最高的新冠肺炎病例。
馮娟 摘譯自 oil now
原文如下：
Oil prices fall third day in a row amid OPEC+ uncertainty
Oil prices fell for a third day on Thursday amid uncertainty over supply after the collapse this week of talks among major producers which could potentially cause the current output agreement to be abandoned.
Brent crude oil futures slipped by 23 cents, or 0.3%, to $73.20 a barrel by 0644GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures were down 33 cents, or 0.5%, at $71.87 a barrel.
Brent prices have fallen about 5% since Monday’s close after talks between the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, including Russia, known as OPEC+, fell apart when de facto leader Saudi Arabia refused demands from the United Arab Emirates to raise its output under the group’s supply cut agreement.
“The oil market is looking beyond the oil supply deficit in August and expecting the OPEC+ agreement to fall apart well before April 2022 when the agreement expires as other member countries will ask for further concessions to secure more market share,” said Edward Moya, senior market analyst at OANDA.
OPEC+ has restrained supply for more than a year since demand crashed during the coronavirus pandemic.
The group is maintaining nearly 6 million barrels per day (bpd) of output cuts and was expected to add to supply, but three days of meetings failed to close divisions between the Saudis and the Emiratis.
Russia is trying to mediate between Saudi Arabia and the UAE to help strike a deal to raise oil output, three OPEC+ sources said on Wednesday.
Prices found some support from a large drop in oil inventories in the United States.
Oil stockpiles in the world’s biggest oil user fell by 8 million barrels for the week ended July 2, according to two market sources, citing American Petroleum Institute figures, compared with an estimate of a 4 million barrel fall by analysts in a Reuters poll.
Government inventory data is due on Thursday, pushed back a day following the U.S. Fourth of July holiday on Monday.
U.S. oil production declines this year are expected to lessen with the Energy Information Administration (EIA) saying on Wednesday that output will be 11.10 million bpd in 2021, down by 210,000 bpd from 2020, versus its previous forecast for a drop of 230,000 bpd.
Concerns over the coronavirus, however, weighed on prices, with Japan, the world’s fourth-largest oil user, set to declare a state of emergency for the Tokyo area through Aug. 22 amid a new wave of infections and South Korea reporting its highest ever daily COVID-19 cases.
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