據(jù)油價網(wǎng)2021年7月13日報道，國際能源署(IEA)周二表示，石油市場至今已經(jīng)緊張了一周，歐佩克+聯(lián)盟內(nèi)部有可能爆發(fā)新的油價戰(zhàn)，并補充稱，目前的談判僵局也有可能破壞全球經(jīng)濟復(fù)蘇。

　　IEA在其備受關(guān)注的7月石油市場報告中稱，6月全球石油日需求估計將增加320萬桶至9680萬桶。

　　IEA表示，在今年剩余時間里，全球石油需求將繼續(xù)反彈，原因是經(jīng)濟增長穩(wěn)健、疫苗接種率上升以及許多經(jīng)濟體限制放寬。

　　然而，IEA指出，由于歐佩克+僵局的持續(xù)，油價波動加劇，這對產(chǎn)油國和消費國都沒有好處，導(dǎo)致石油市場緊張不安。

　　IEA說：“與此同時，市場份額之爭的可能性，即使很遙遠，也籠罩著市場。高油價可能加劇通貨膨脹，損害脆弱的經(jīng)濟復(fù)蘇。 Covid-19德爾塔變異病毒在未來幾個月可能產(chǎn)生的全球影響的不確定性也緩和了市場情緒。”

　　已經(jīng)持續(xù)一周的僵局意味著，在達成妥協(xié)之前，歐佩克+將保持8月份的產(chǎn)量配額與7月份持平。 隨著全球石油需求持續(xù)反彈，這肯定會使市場更加吃緊。 IEA稱，發(fā)達經(jīng)濟體的過剩石油庫存已經(jīng)低于歷史平均水平，如果歐佩克+不放松減產(chǎn)措施，我們可能會看到市場明顯吃緊，尤其是原油平衡吃緊。

　　這家總部位于巴黎的機構(gòu)說，當前的油價或更高的水平可能刺激電氣化，但高油價也可能減緩經(jīng)濟復(fù)蘇，尤其是在大型新興市場。

　　美國汽油價格躍升至7年來的最高點。 IEA指出，歐洲各國的原油價格也在上漲，全球第三大原油進口國印度的原油價格也達到了歷史高點。

　　“在歐佩克+生產(chǎn)政策明確之前，石油市場可能會持續(xù)波動。 而且波動性無助于確保有序和安全的能源轉(zhuǎn)型，也不符合生產(chǎn)者和消費者的利益，”IEA在報告中如是說。

　　李峻 編譯自 油價網(wǎng)

　　原文如下：

　　The IEA Warns Of Another Oil Price War

　　The oil market has been on edge for a week now, entertaining the possibility of a new price war within the OPEC+ alliance, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said on Tuesday, adding that the current impasse is also threatening to derail the global economic recovery.

　　In June, global oil demand is estimated to have jumped by as much as 3.2 million barrels per day (bpd) to 96.8 million bpd, the agency said in its closely watched Oil Market Report for July.

　　For the rest of the year, oil demand will continue to rebound thanks to solid economic growth, rising vaccination rates, and easing of restrictions in many economies, the IEA said.

　　Yet, the oil market is jittery because of the ongoing OPEC+ deadlock, with increased volatility that helps neither producers nor consumers, the agency noted.

　　“At the same time, the possibility of a market share battle, even if remote, is hanging over markets, as is the potential for high fuel prices to stoke inflation and damage a fragile economic recovery. The uncertainty over the potential global impact of the Covid-19 Delta variant in the coming months is also tempering sentiment,” the IEA’s monthly report says.

　　The already week-long stalemate means that until a compromise can be reached, OPEC+ will leave production quotas in August flat compared to July’s levels. This will surely tighten the market much more as global oil demand continues to rebound. The excess oil inventories in developed economies are already below historical averages, and without OPEC+ easing its production cuts, we could see a significantly tighter market with especially tight crude oil balances, the IEA said.

　　Oil prices at current or higher levels could incentivize electrification, but high prices could also slow down the economic recovery, especially in large emerging markets, the Paris-based agency said.

　　Prices at the pump jumped to a seven-year high in the United States. They are also rising across Europe, and reached all-time highs in India, the world’s third-largest crude oil importer, the IEA noted.

　　“Oil markets are likely to remain volatile until there is clarity on OPEC+ production policy. And volatility does not help ensure orderly and secure energy transitions – nor is it in the interest of either producers or consumers,” said the agency.

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