據(jù)油價(jià)網(wǎng)2021年8月13日?qǐng)?bào)道，雖然拜登政府日前呼吁歐佩克+增加超過已計(jì)劃的原油產(chǎn)量，但主要石油預(yù)測(cè)人士降低了他們對(duì)市場(chǎng)需要更多歐佩克+原油的預(yù)期。

　　本周早些時(shí)候，白宮呼吁歐佩克+增加原油產(chǎn)量，以遏制可能破壞全球經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇的汽油價(jià)格上漲。

　　然而，彭博新聞的朱利安·李指出，同樣在本周，美國能源信息署(EIA)、國際能源署(IEA)和歐佩克本身都下調(diào)了他們對(duì)今年和明年歐佩克原油需求的預(yù)測(cè)。

　　EIA在其8月份的短期能源展望(STEO)報(bào)告中估計(jì)，在今年第三季度和第四季度，歐佩克的原油產(chǎn)量仍將低于預(yù)期。 第三季度，全球?qū)W佩克原油需求將超過產(chǎn)量100萬桶/天。 然而，這一差距將在第四季度下降到30萬桶/天。

　　EIA 8月10日曾表示：“從2022年第一季度開始，我們預(yù)計(jì)歐佩克原油產(chǎn)量將超過全球?qū)W佩克原油產(chǎn)量需求的預(yù)期，這將導(dǎo)致原油庫存增加，原油價(jià)格下跌。”一天后即8月11日，美國政府敦促歐佩克+打開水龍頭。

　　EIA表示：“歐佩克+領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人預(yù)計(jì)將在今年12月再次開會(huì)，屆時(shí)他們的削減產(chǎn)量計(jì)劃將有所調(diào)整。”

　　IEA 8月12日警告稱，亞洲為對(duì)抗德爾塔變異毒株肆虐出臺(tái)的新的出行限制措施，將減緩今年下半年的全球原油需求增長，不過IEA對(duì)全年全球石油需求增長的預(yù)期基本保持不變。

　　IEA在其8月12日發(fā)布的備受關(guān)注的石油市場(chǎng)報(bào)告中表示：“歐佩克+的直接增產(chǎn)，與歐佩克+聯(lián)盟外需求增長放緩和產(chǎn)量增加相沖突，消除了近期供應(yīng)緊縮或超級(jí)周期的揮之不去的暗示。”

　　甚至在7月達(dá)成協(xié)議以后，歐佩克+在今年第四季度的原油產(chǎn)量預(yù)計(jì)仍將比其此前預(yù)期低20萬桶/天，而在7月協(xié)議達(dá)成前，全球石油需求缺口預(yù)計(jì)高達(dá)200萬桶/天。

　　IEA表示：“但如果歐佩克+繼續(xù)取消減產(chǎn)，而不參與協(xié)議的產(chǎn)油國為應(yīng)對(duì)油價(jià)上漲而增加產(chǎn)量，缺口規(guī)模可能在2022年恢復(fù)盈余。”

　　歐佩克在8月12日發(fā)表的月度報(bào)告中下調(diào)了全球原油需求。今年全球?qū)W佩克原油的需求比7月的預(yù)測(cè)下降20萬桶/天，為2740萬桶/天。明年全球?qū)W佩克原油需求預(yù)計(jì)將比7月預(yù)估下降110萬桶/天，至2760萬桶/天。

　　李峻 編譯自 油價(jià)網(wǎng)

　　原文如下：

　　Why The Market Doesn’t Need Much More OPEC+ Oil

　　While the Biden Administration calls on OPEC+ to boost production more than planned, the major oil forecasters scaled back their outlook on how much OPEC+ crude the market would need.

　　Earlier this week, the White House called on the OPEC+ group to increase oil production more than they had planned in order to tame rising gasoline prices that could derail the global economic recovery.

　　However, also this week, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), the International Energy Agency (IEA), and OPEC itself revised down their forecasts for the call on OPEC crude this year and next, Julian Lee of Bloomberg News notes.

　　In the August Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), the EIA estimated that OPEC crude oil production would remain lower than calls on OPEC through the third quarter and fourth quarter of 2021. This quarter, demand for OPEC’s oil will exceed production by 1.0 million bpd. However, this difference will drop to 300,000 in the fourth quarter.

　　“Beginning in 1Q22, we forecast OPEC crude oil production will outpace calls on OPEC production, contributing to increased crude oil inventories and lower crude oil prices,” the EIA said on Tuesday, a day before the U.S. Administration urged OPEC+ to open the taps.

　　“OPEC+ leaders are expected to reconvene in December 2021, when we expect some adjustments to their curtailment plan,” the EIA said.

　　The IEA, for its part, warned on Thursday that new mobility restrictions in Asia to fight the Delta variant were set to slow global oil demand growth in the second half of 2021, although it left its full-year demand growth estimates largely unchanged.

　　“The immediate boost from OPEC+ is colliding with slower demand growth and higher output from outside the alliance, stamping out lingering suggestions of a near-term supply crunch or super cycle,” the IEA said in its closely-watched Oil Market Report published on Thursday.

　　Even after the deal from last month, OPEC+ is estimated to pump about 200,000 bpd below the call on its crude in Q4 2021, compared with a deficit of up to 2 million bpd expected before the July agreement.

　　“But the scale could tilt back to surplus in 2022 if OPEC+ continues to undo its cuts and producers not taking part in the deal ramp up in response to higher prices,” said the IEA.

　　OPEC itself revised down demand for its crude in its monthly report on Thursday. Demand for OPEC crude in 2021 was revised down by 200,000 bpd from last month’s forecast to stand at 27.4 million bpd. Demand for OPEC crude next year was revised down by 1.1 million bpd from the previous month’s assessment to stand at 27.6 million bpd.

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