據美國鉆井網站2021年8月5日報道，最近幾周，原油價格的近期前景似乎已顯著惡化。
這是根據渣打銀行發表的一份最新油價報告得出的結論。分析師們在報告中表示，他們認為全球石油市場目前仍處于過剩狀態，亞太地區需求的疲軟意味著未來存在更大的過剩風險。
渣打銀行在周三（8月4日）發給美國鉆井網站的報告中表示：“隨著價格前景的黯淡，現在的問題是生產商在油價上漲期間如何反應。”
分析師補充稱：“從石油公司的上半年財報季來看，許多獨立石油公司在過去3個月里有所保留，考慮到當前投資組合中對沖價格相對較低，他們更傾向于增加上行敞口。”
渣打銀行的分析師接著說，對25名早期記者的抽樣調查顯示，石油對沖頭寸連續第5個季度萎縮。 未來4個季度的掉期交易平均每桶超過66美元，比3個月前投資組合中一年期掉期交易的平均水平高出了22美元。 現在的平均價格略高于每桶47美元，仍遠低于當前價格。
分析師在報告中指出，美國能源信息署(EIA)最新發布的報告仍看漲其美國石油多頭買空指數，并表示在過去一周全球流動數據略強，但分析師補充稱，過去兩個月在最大地區的總體趨勢要么是持平或下降。
基本面前景不變
惠譽解決方案國家風險和行業研究分析師周三在發給美國鉆井網站的一份報告中表示，他們對本季度油價的基本面展望沒有變化。他們預測，2021年布倫特原油均價將達到72美元/桶，2022年為69美元/桶，2023年為70美元/桶，2024年為72美元/桶，2025年為74美元/桶。
惠譽分析師在報告中表示：“我們預計下半年市場平衡仍將緊張。”
分析師補充說：“供應將會上升。歐佩克+同意在8月至12月期間每天恢復40萬桶原油產量，而頁巖產量在二疊紀盆地的帶動下恢復了低增長水平。 然而，面對全球新冠肺炎疫情的再度爆發，石油需求也將繼續正常化，增速將超過產量的增長。”
“從2022年開始，前景變得更加黯淡。 隨著經濟復蘇勢頭放緩，石油需求增長放緩，經濟復蘇將越過高峰。 與此同時，美國、歐佩克+的原油產量增加，將大幅增加市場上的供應。”
分析師表示，他們的全球供需平衡表明，明年全球市場將出現大量供應過剩，而隨著疫情消退，市場人氣可能只會部分上揚。
李峻 編譯自 美國鉆井網站
原文如下：
Analysts Talk Oil Prices
The immediate prospects for oil prices appear to have deteriorated significantly in recent weeks.
That’s according to a new oil price report from Standard Chartered, in which analysts state that they think the market is now in surplus and that weakness in Asia-Pacific demand implies a risk of larger surpluses to come.
“With the price outlook darkening, the question is, how did producers react during the period of higher prices,” Standard Chartered said in its note, which was sent to Rigzone on Wednesday.
“The evidence from the first half of the oil company reporting season is that many independents held back over the past three months, preferring to increase their exposure to the upside given the relatively low hedged prices in their current portfolio,” the analysts added.
“A sample of 25 early reporters implies oil hedge books shrank for a fifth successive quarter. Swaps transacted for the next four quarters averaged above $66 per barrel, $22 per barrel higher than the average of one-year swaps in the portfolio three months ago. That average is now just over $47 per barrel, still well below current prices,” Standard Chartered analysts went on to say.
The analysts noted in the report that the latest Energy Information Administration (EIA) release was bullish according to its U.S. oil data bull-bear index, and said global mobility data was slightly stronger over the past week, but added that overall trends in the largest regions over the past two months are either flat or falling.
Fundamental Outlook Unchanged
Analysts at Fitch Solutions Country Risk and Industry Research revealed that the company’s fundamental outlook on oil prices is unchanged this quarter, in a report sent to Rigzone on Wednesday. The company forecasts that Brent crude oil will average $72 per barrel in 2021, $69 per barrel in 2022, $70 per barrel in 2023, $72 per barrel in 2024 and $74 per barrel in 2025.
“We expect the market balance to remain tight over H2 [second half of the year],” Fitch Solutions analysts stated in the report.
“Supply will rise. OPEC+ has agreed to return 400,000 barrels per day every month between August and December, while shale production has returned to low levels of growth, led by the Permian. However, in the face of renewed outbreaks of the coronavirus globally, oil demand will also continue to normalize, outpacing the growth in production,” the analysts added.
“From 2022, the outlook becomes more clouded. The economic recovery will have passed it peaks, with momentum slowing and oil demand growth decelerating. At the same time, rising volumes from the U.S., OPEC+ and, prospectively, will substantially increase the supply availably to market,” the analysts continued.
The analysts said their global supply and demand balance points to a large glut next year, which may only partly be offset by firming sentiment as the pandemic fades.
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