據(jù)世界能源網(wǎng)站12月14日?qǐng)?bào)道，歐佩克上調(diào)了2022年第一季度的全球石油需求預(yù)測(cè)，但保留了全年增長(zhǎng)預(yù)測(cè)，因?yàn)樵摻M織表示，奧密克戎冠狀病毒變體將產(chǎn)生溫和影響。

該組織表示，預(yù)計(jì)新的奧密克戎變體的影響“將是溫和和短暫的，因?yàn)槭澜鐚⒏玫貞?yīng)對(duì)疫情及其相關(guān)挑戰(zhàn)”。該公司同時(shí)預(yù)測(cè)，盡管存在全球通貨膨脹的擔(dān)憂和供應(yīng)鏈瓶頸，但發(fā)達(dá)經(jīng)濟(jì)體和新興經(jīng)濟(jì)體的經(jīng)濟(jì)都將穩(wěn)步增長(zhǎng)。

歐佩克做出上述評(píng)估之際，油價(jià)繼續(xù)走高，各方對(duì)奧密克戎變體沖擊需求的擔(dān)憂有所緩解。

經(jīng)合組織國(guó)家的石油需求預(yù)計(jì)將在2022年增加180萬桶/天，而非經(jīng)合組織地區(qū)的石油需求預(yù)計(jì)將增加230萬桶/天。

歐佩克表示，這得益于經(jīng)濟(jì)活動(dòng)的穩(wěn)定勢(shì)頭，尤其是亞洲最大原油消費(fèi)國(guó)、印度和其他亞洲國(guó)家。

該組織將2021年全球石油需求增長(zhǎng)保持在上月估計(jì)的每日570萬桶不變。

歐佩克表示，受美國(guó)鉆井和完井活動(dòng)預(yù)計(jì)逐步增加的影響，2022年非歐佩克石油供應(yīng)預(yù)計(jì)將同比增長(zhǎng)300萬桶/天。

預(yù)計(jì)美國(guó)和俄羅斯將貢獻(xiàn)總預(yù)期增長(zhǎng)的三分之二，其次是巴西、加拿大、哈薩克斯坦、挪威和圭亞那。

賈麗 摘譯自 世界能源

原文如下：

Opec Maintains 2022 Demand Outlook and Expects Mild Impact from Omicron Variant

Opec raised its global oil demand forecast for the first quarter of 2022 but left its full-year growth projection as it said the Omicron coronavirus variant would have a mild impact.

The oil exporters' group expects oil demand to average 99.13 million barrels per day (bpd) in the first quarter of 2022, up 1.11 million bpd from its forecast last month, it said in its monthly bulletin on Monday. World oil demand growth was kept unchanged at 4.2 million bpd and total global consumption at 100.6 million bpd.

The impact of the new Omicron variant is projected to “be mild and short-lived, as the world becomes better equipped to manage Covid-19 and its related challenges”, it said while predicting steady economic growth in both the advanced and emerging economies, despite global inflation concerns and supply chain bottlenecks.

The assessment from Opec comes as oil prices continued to trade higher, amid easing concerns over the Omicron variant hitting demand.

Demand for oil in Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development countries is forecast to grow by 1.8 million bpd in 2022, while the non-OECD region is projected to increase by 2.3 million bpd.

Opec said,“supported by steady momentum in economic activities, particularly the biggest oil-consuming country, India and other Asian countries.”

The group kept world oil demand growth for 2021 unchanged from last month’s assessment of 5.7 million bpd.

Non-Opec supply growth in 2022 is expected to be 3 million bpd year-on-year on the back of an expected gradual increase in drilling and completion activities in the US, Opec said.

The US and Russia are forecast to contribute two thirds of total expected growth, followed by Brazil, Canada, Kazakhstan, Norway, and Guyana. 

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