據(jù)管道&天然氣雜志網(wǎng)12月21日報道，美國天然氣期貨周二小幅上漲，市場預(yù)期下周天氣將溫和，且供暖需求將低于此前預(yù)期，轉(zhuǎn)而關(guān)注歐洲天然氣期貨的大幅上漲，這可能使美國液化天然氣出口保持在接近紀(jì)錄高位的水平。
截至美國東部時間上午 9:34（格林威治標(biāo)準(zhǔn)時間 14：34），即月天然氣期貨上漲2.7美分，漲幅0.7%，至每百萬英熱單位3.861 美元，此前交易日上漲近4%。
Refinitiv分析師約翰·阿伯倫（John Abeln）表示，我們處于推拉式的市場狀況。一方面，由于歐洲和亞洲的高價格以及薩賓帕斯終端的擴(kuò)建，我們目前看到LNG原料氣創(chuàng)歷史新高。另一方面，GFS00和EC00天氣模式在未來兩周變暖。
歐洲天然氣價格上漲逾18%，創(chuàng)下歷史新高，由于俄羅斯通過一條主要輸氣管道向德國輸送的天然氣發(fā)生了逆轉(zhuǎn)，而寒冷的天氣增加了需求。
無論全球天然氣價格上漲多高，美國只能將約111億立方英尺/天的天然氣轉(zhuǎn)換為液化天然氣。流向出口工廠的剩余天然氣用于為生產(chǎn)天然氣的設(shè)備提供燃料。
咨詢公司 Ritterbusch and Associates 在一份報告中表示，考慮到產(chǎn)能，俄羅斯流入歐洲的流量減少不一定等同于液化天然氣出口的增量增加。因此，在天氣因素提供一些看漲因素之前，天然氣市場將繼續(xù)經(jīng)歷一些困難，難以突破4.00-4.10美元區(qū)域。
根據(jù)數(shù)據(jù)提供商Refinitiv預(yù)計，隨著天氣轉(zhuǎn)暖，美國日均天然氣需求(包括出口)將從本周的1237億立方英尺降至下周的1186億立方英尺。
據(jù)Refinitiv估計，未來兩周，美國本土48個州將有405采暖度日數(shù)，低于周一估計的413采暖度日數(shù)。每年這個時候的正常數(shù)據(jù)是428采暖度日數(shù)。
HDD用于估計家庭和企業(yè)的供暖需求，測量一天平均溫度低于65華氏度（18 攝氏度）的度數(shù)。
自11月中旬以來，氣候溫和，供暖需求一直較低，這意味著庫存中的天然氣將很快超過往年，這是自4月以來的首次。
12月到目前為止，流向美國LNG出口工廠的天然氣量日均為119億立方英尺，如今位于路易斯安那州的切尼爾能源公司薩賓帕斯工廠的第六條生產(chǎn)線正在生產(chǎn)LNG。
相比之下，11月為114億立方英尺/天，4月創(chuàng)下115億立方英尺/天的月度紀(jì)錄。
12月迄今為止，美國48個州的日均產(chǎn)量為967億立方英尺，這超過11月創(chuàng)下的965億立方英尺的月度紀(jì)錄。
郝芬 譯自 管道&天然氣雜志網(wǎng)
原文如下：
US NatGas Futures Edge Up on Soaring Global Gas Prices
U.S. natural gas futures edged up on Tuesday, shrugging off forecasts for milder weather and lower heating demand next week than previously expected, and focusing instead on a sharp rally in European gas futures that could keep U.S. liquefied natural gas exports near record highs.
Front-month gas futures rose 2.7 cents, or 0.7%, to $3.861 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) by 9:34 a.m. EST (1434 GMT) after rising nearly 4% in the previous session.
"We are in push-pull market condition. On the one hand, we are currently seeing record high LNG feedgas, caused by the high prices in Europe and Asia, as well as the expansion at Sabine Pass. On the other hand, both the GFS00 and EC00 weather models have shifted warmer over the next two weeks," Refinitiv analyst John Abeln said.
Gas prices in Europe jumped more than 18% to an all-time high as Russian gas shipments to Germany through a major transit pipeline reversed direction and colder weather increased demand.
No matter how high global gas prices rise, the United States can only convert about 11.1 Bcfd of gas into LNG. The rest of the gas flowing to the export plants is used to fuel equipment that produces the it.
"Curtailed Russian flows into Europe will not necessarily be equating to an incremental increase in LNG exports given capacity considerations. So, until some bullish assistance is provided by the weather factor, the gas market will continue to experience some difficulty in pushing above the $4.00-4.10 zone," advisory firm Ritterbusch and Associates said in a note.
Data provider Refinitiv projected average U.S. gas demand, including exports, would fall from 123.7 cubic feet per day this week to 118.6 Bcfd next week as the weather turns milder.
Refinitiv estimated 405 heating degree days (HDDs) over the next two weeks in the lower 48 U.S. states, down from the 413 HDDs estimated on Monday. The normal is 428 HDDs for this time of year.
HDDs, used to estimate demand to heat homes and businesses, measure the number of degrees a day's average temperature is below 65 Fahrenheit (18 Celsius).
Mostly mild weather since mid-November has kept heating demand low and means there will soon be more gas in stockpiles than is usual for the time of year for the first time since April.
The amount of gas flowing to U.S. LNG export plants has averaged 11.9 Bcfd so far in December, now that the sixth train at Cheniere Energy Inc's Sabine Pass plant in Louisiana is producing LNG.
That compares to 11.4 Bcfd in November and a monthly record of 11.5 Bcfd in April.
Output in the U.S. Lower 48 states has averaged 96.7 Bcfd so far in December, which would top the monthly record of 96.5 Bcfd in November.
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