據(jù)世界能源12月22日消息：Rystad Energy的分析顯示，如果12月剩余時(shí)間未能有任何重大油氣發(fā)現(xiàn)，2021年全球油氣發(fā)現(xiàn)量有望達(dá)到75年來(lái)的最低全年水平。截至11月底，今年全球已發(fā)現(xiàn)的總儲(chǔ)量為47億桶油當(dāng)量，由于本月迄今沒(méi)有宣布重大發(fā)現(xiàn)，石油行業(yè)正面臨自1946年以來(lái)最嚴(yán)重的損失。這也意味著，與2020年發(fā)現(xiàn)的125億桶油當(dāng)量相比，產(chǎn)量將大幅下降。

液體仍然是碳?xì)浠衔锏闹饕煞郑伎偘l(fā)現(xiàn)量的66%。2021年11月宣布了7項(xiàng)新發(fā)現(xiàn)，新發(fā)現(xiàn)儲(chǔ)量約2.19億桶油當(dāng)量。今年的月平均探明產(chǎn)量為4.24億桶。累積數(shù)量的減少突顯出沒(méi)有大的個(gè)體發(fā)現(xiàn)，就像往年一樣。

“盡管一些排名靠前的勘探項(xiàng)目計(jì)劃在今年年底前進(jìn)行鉆探，但即使是重大發(fā)現(xiàn)也可能無(wú)法為2021年的發(fā)現(xiàn)量做出貢獻(xiàn)，因?yàn)檫@些井可能無(wú)法在本日歷年完成。因此，2021年的累計(jì)發(fā)現(xiàn)量肯定會(huì)是幾十年來(lái)的最低水平，”Rystad Energy上游研究副總裁Palzor Shenga說(shuō)。

2021年11月發(fā)現(xiàn)的最大油田是俄羅斯盧克石油公司在墨西哥海岸附近發(fā)現(xiàn)的Yoti West油田，據(jù)估計(jì)該油田擁有約7500萬(wàn)桶油當(dāng)量的可采資源。這一發(fā)現(xiàn)加強(qiáng)了盧克石油公司在北美國(guó)家的累計(jì)發(fā)現(xiàn)量。然而，這些數(shù)量仍然不足以進(jìn)行商業(yè)開(kāi)發(fā)，在制定開(kāi)發(fā)概念之前，還需要進(jìn)行類(lèi)似規(guī)模的進(jìn)一步發(fā)現(xiàn)。不過(guò)，這些發(fā)現(xiàn)確實(shí)給墨西哥帶來(lái)了希望，即該國(guó)可以停止或減緩其產(chǎn)量下降。幾口井計(jì)劃在各個(gè)投標(biāo)輪次提供的區(qū)塊中鉆探，其中許多井由領(lǐng)先的國(guó)際石油公司提供。

馬來(lái)西亞近海，Nangka-1成為在SK 417區(qū)塊內(nèi)連續(xù)鉆探的第二口勘探井。該井由泰國(guó)國(guó)家運(yùn)營(yíng)商PTTEP鉆探至3758米深，并在中、晚中新世VI期碎屑巖儲(chǔ)層中發(fā)現(xiàn)了低硫天然氣。

挪威繼續(xù)挖掘中小型油田，為利用現(xiàn)有基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施實(shí)現(xiàn)這些發(fā)現(xiàn)提供了機(jī)會(huì)。

馮娟 摘譯自 世界能源

原文如下：

Global Oil And Gas Discoveries Set To Hit 75-Year Low In 2021

Global oil and gas discoveries in 2021 are on track to hit their lowest full-year level in 75 years should the remainder of December fail to yield any significant finds, Rystad Energy analysis shows. As of the end of November, total global discovered volumes this year are calculated at 4.7 billion barrels of oil equivalent (boe) and, with no major finds announced so far this month, the industry is on course for its worst discoveries toll since 1946. This would also represent a considerable drop from the 12.5 billion boe unearthed in 2020.

Liquids continue to dominate the hydrocarbon mix, making up 66% of total finds. Seven new discoveries were announced in November 2021, unearthing around 219 million boe of new volumes. The monthly average of discovered volumes this year now stands at 424 million boe. A reduction in cumulative volume highlights the absence of large individual finds, as has been the case in previous years.

“Although some of the highly ranked prospects are scheduled to be drilled before the end of the year, even a substantial discovery may not be able to contribute towards 2021 discovered volumes as these wells may not be completed in this calendar year. Therefore, the cumulative discovered volume for 2021 is on course to be its lowest in decades,” says Palzor Shenga, vice president of upstream research at Rystad Energy.

The largest discovery in November 2021 was Russian group Lukoil’s Yoti West off the coast of Mexico, which is estimated to hold around 75 million boe of recoverable resources. The discovery strengthens Lukoil’s cumulative discovered volumes in the North American nation. However, these volumes are still insufficient for commercial development and would require further discoveries of a comparable scale before a development concept could be drawn up. These discoveries do, however, give hope to Mexico that the country can halt or slow down its production decline. Several wells are scheduled to be drilled in blocks offered in various bid rounds, many by leading international oil companies.

Offshore Malaysia, Nangka-1 became the second successive exploration well drilled within Block SK 417. The wildcat was drilled by Thai state operator PTTEP to a depth of 3,758 meters and discovered sweet gas within the Middle to Late Miocene Cycle VI clastic reservoirs.

Norway continues to unearth small-to-medium finds, providing an opportunity to materialize these discoveries with available infrastructure.

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