據(jù)1月13日Offshore Energy報(bào)道，挪威石油管理局(NPD)預(yù)計(jì)，未來幾年將繼續(xù)保持穩(wěn)定總干事英格麗德·瑟爾貝格（Ingrid S?lvberg）表示，未來幾年，許多新發(fā)現(xiàn)以及幾個(gè)新油田開發(fā)，意味著產(chǎn)量有望在2024年之前有所增加。
根據(jù)NPD數(shù)據(jù)，挪威2021年石油產(chǎn)量為1.02億立方米(6.42億桶)，天然氣產(chǎn)量為1130億立方米，這相當(dāng)于每天大約有400萬桶，較前一年略有增加。
2021年有5個(gè)油田開始生產(chǎn)，分別是Duva、Yme(一個(gè)已重啟的老油田)、Solveig、北海Martin Linge和挪威海北部?rfugl。此外，北海Johan Sverdrup油田第一階段已全面投產(chǎn)，第二階段計(jì)劃于今年啟動(dòng)。一旦實(shí)現(xiàn)全面生產(chǎn)，Johan Sverdrup將占挪威大陸架石油產(chǎn)量的35%。
NPD表示，2021年已經(jīng)提交了8八個(gè)發(fā)展計(jì)劃（PDO），其他油田也在籌備之中，預(yù)計(jì)今年兩家公司將提交數(shù)十份計(jì)劃。石油稅臨時(shí)變化很可能導(dǎo)致了項(xiàng)目活動(dòng)增加。即使沒有稅收政策，這些項(xiàng)目也很有可能得以實(shí)施，但其中一些項(xiàng)目可能會(huì)被推遲。
油氣投資
2021年，挪威大陸架油田和新發(fā)現(xiàn)的開發(fā)投資總額約為1500億挪威克朗(約合172億美元)，這一數(shù)字略低于前一年。NPD預(yù)測(cè)，2022年將進(jìn)一步減少，而在2025年之前，投資會(huì)再次增加。
這些投資有助于到2030年繼續(xù)保持高利潤(rùn)生產(chǎn)，而目前計(jì)劃顯示，到2030年，產(chǎn)量將會(huì)下降，這種下降程度和速度將取決于這些公司在未來幾年能發(fā)現(xiàn)多少額外油氣資源。
雖然產(chǎn)量仍然很高，但二氧化碳排放量正在下降，這背后最重要的原因是使用了電力，旨在到2030年將排放量在2005年的水平上減少一半。
新的油氣發(fā)現(xiàn)
NPD數(shù)據(jù)顯示，2021年共完成了40口勘探井(31口探井和9口評(píng)價(jià)井)。探井發(fā)現(xiàn)了18處油氣資源。此外，在具有勘探目標(biāo)的生產(chǎn)井中又獲得了兩處發(fā)現(xiàn)。
2021年資源增長(zhǎng)達(dá)到8100萬立方米 (5.1億桶)。過去幾年，資源增長(zhǎng)穩(wěn)定，2021年是自2014年以來增長(zhǎng)最快的一年。
瑟爾貝格表示，NPD預(yù)計(jì)今年將鉆30至40口探井。
2021年，新勘探區(qū)域獲得了該領(lǐng)域內(nèi)的年度獎(jiǎng)勵(lì)和第25輪許可。在該輪融資中，共有30家公司獲得了61個(gè)生產(chǎn)許可證，7家公司在第25輪融資中獲得了所有權(quán)權(quán)益。在2021年也有大量的申請(qǐng)，這項(xiàng)獎(jiǎng)項(xiàng)將在幾周內(nèi)進(jìn)行。
新產(chǎn)業(yè)的興起
新參與者和行業(yè)正在挪威大陸架上出現(xiàn)。Hywind Tampen技術(shù)試點(diǎn)項(xiàng)目是世界上第一個(gè)從海上風(fēng)能為石油設(shè)施提供電力的項(xiàng)目。該計(jì)劃要求今年在北海安裝渦輪機(jī)。
海底礦物開采也可能成為一種新產(chǎn)業(yè)。2021年秋季，NPD進(jìn)行了考察，并在這一年中與挪威大學(xué)一起參加了其他幾次考察。4年數(shù)據(jù)采集初步結(jié)果表明，在挪威大陸架上存在著有趣的錳結(jié)殼和硫化物。
NPD之前已經(jīng)繪制了挪威大陸架上二氧化碳儲(chǔ)存圖，估計(jì)有800億噸的二氧化碳儲(chǔ)存空間，相當(dāng)于挪威目前水平上1500年的排放量。
NPD發(fā)現(xiàn)，無論是現(xiàn)有的還是新的參與者，都對(duì)二氧化碳存儲(chǔ)機(jī)會(huì)越來越有興趣。在2021年公布兩個(gè)地區(qū)后，當(dāng)局收到了5家企業(yè)申請(qǐng)。
王佳晶 摘譯自 Offshore Energy
原文如下：
Norway nets record-breaking revenues from oil & gas
The Norwegian Petroleum Directorate (NPD) expects stable, high production to continue over the next few years. Many new discoveries, as well as several new field developments in upcoming years, mean that production is expected to increase somewhat leading up to 2024, says Director general Ingrid S?lvberg.
According to the NPD, Norway’s production in 2021 came to 102 million standard cubic metres of oil (642 million barrels) and 113 billion standard cubic metres of gas. This corresponds to about four million barrels of oil equivalent per day, a minor increase from the previous year.
Five fields started production last year: Duva, Yme (an older field which was restarted), Solveig, Martin Linge in the North Sea, and ?rfugl in the northern Norwegian Sea.
Furthermore, Phase 1 of the Johan Sverdrup field in the North Sea is in full operation, and Phase 2 is scheduled to start up this year. once full production is achieved, Johan Sverdrup will account for 35 per cent of oil production on the Norwegian shelf.
The directorate said that additional fields are in the pipeline as eight development plans (PDOs) were submitted in 2021, and the companies are expected to submit dozens of PDOs this year.
The directorate believes that the temporary change in the petroleum tax has most likely led to an increase in project activity. The projects would most likely have been carried out even without the tax package, but some of them would have been postponed, the NPD said.
Oil & gas investments
A total of about NOK 150 billion or about $17.2 billion was invested in fields and the development of discoveries on the Norwegian shelf in 2021, which is somewhat lower than the previous year. The NPD’s forecasts show an additional reduction in investments in 2022 before they are expected to increase again leading up to 2025.
The investments contribute to continued high and profitable production towards 2030, at which point the current plans show that production will decline. The extent and speed of this decline will depend, among other things, on how much additional oil and gas the companies will discover in the years to come.
While production remains high, CO2 emissions are dropping and the most important reason behind this is the use of power from shore. The objective is to cut emissions in half by 2030 compared with the level in 2005.
New oil & gas discoveries
The NPD’s data show that 40 exploration wells were completed last year (31 wildcat wells and 9 appraisal wells). Wildcat wells yielded 18 oil and gas discoveries. Two additional discoveries were made in production wells with exploration targets.
Resource growth in 2021 amounted to 81 million standard cubic meters of oil equivalent (510 million barrels of oil equivalents). There has been a steady resource growth over the past years, and 2021 had the highest growth since 2014.
The NPD expects 30-40 exploration wells to be drilled this year, S?lvberg says.
Last year saw the award of new exploration acreage in the annual Awards in Pre-defined Areas (APA) as well as in the 25th licensing round. 30 companies were offered a total of 61 production licenses in the APA round, and seven companies offered ownership interests in the 25th round. There was also significant interest and a large number of applications in the APA round in 2021, and this award will take place in a few weeks.
New industries emerging
New players and industries are emerging on the Norwegian shelf. The technology pilot Hywind Tampen is the world’s first project to supply power to petroleum installations from offshore wind. The plan calls for the turbines to be installed in the North Sea this year.
Seabed mineral extraction could also become a new industry. In autumn 2021, the NPD carried out its own expedition and participated in several other expeditions with Norwegian universities over the course of the year. Preliminary results from four years of data acquisition show that there are interesting occurrences of manganese crusts and sulphides on the Norwegian shelf.
The NPD has previously mapped opportunities for CO2 storage on the Norwegian shelf and its estimates show that there is room to store 80 billion tonnes of CO2 – the equivalent of 1,500 years of Norwegian emissions at the current level.
The directorate is seeing increasing interest from both established and new players looking for CO2 injection acreage. The authorities received applications from five companies following the announcement of two areas in 2021.
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