據世界石油1月28日消息稱，EIA在其1月份的短期能源展望（STEO）中預測，2022年歐佩克石油產量將增加近270萬桶/日，這是自2004年以來歐佩克產量的最大年增長。我們此次上調原油產量預測主要是基于其對2022年1月OPEC+會議的解讀，當時與會者重申了他們的決定，即繼續每月增產40萬桶，直到所有的減產都被逆轉。

盡管近期非計劃停產增加，但據估計，歐佩克成員國的剩余產能仍高于過去的平均水平。由于COVID-19大流行的爆發大大減少了需求，導致產油國減產，歐佩克的過剩原油產能在2020年年中增至近900萬桶/天。自那以來，歐佩克的過剩產能一直在下降，最近一次是在2021年12月，平均為460萬桶/天。據預測，到2022年，歐佩克原油產量將增加250萬桶/天，平均達到2880萬桶/天。

朱佳妮 摘譯自 世界石油

原文如下：

EIA: OPEC production to grow in 2022

In its January Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), the EIA forecasts that OPEC petroleum production will increase by nearly 2.7 million bpd in 2022, the largest y/y increase in OPEC production since 2004. This increase in our forecast of crude oil production is largely based on its interpretation of the January 2022 OPEC+ meeting, when participants reaffirmed their decision to continue to increase output by 0.4 million bpd each month until all of the production cuts are reversed. 

Despite the recent increase in unplanned outages, it is estimated that OPEC members still have more surplus production capacity than they have had on average in the past. OPEC’s surplus crude oil production capacity increased to nearly 9 million bpd in mid-2020 as the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic greatly reduced demand, causing producers to lower output. OPEC’s surplus capacity has fallen since then and most recently averaged 4.6 million bpd in December 2021. It is forecasted that OPEC crude oil production will increase by 2.5 million bpd to an average of 28.8 million bpd in 2022.

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