據美國油價網報道，路透社援引2月2日舉行的歐佩克聯合技術委員會的新聞稿報道說，歐佩克+仍預計今年全球石油市場將出現供應過剩，但已將過剩量上調10萬桶/天至130萬桶/天。 

路透社援引未具名消息人士的話報道說，歐佩克2月2日會議本身不太可能產生任何沖擊：歐佩克計劃堅持每月總產量日增40萬桶的安排，直到該組織產量恢復到疫情爆發前的水平。

然而，這對歐佩克+的許多成員國來說可能很困難，數月來，它們一直在努力實現根據協議分配給它們的配額。該協議標志著歐佩克及其以俄羅斯為首的合作伙伴開始逆轉有史以來最大的石油減產。 為應對疫情以及由此造成的石油需求減少，歐佩克+同意每日減少近800萬桶的石油供應。

減產，再加上維護投資的減少和石油勘探活動的減少，大大減少了歐佩克+的備用產能，業內人士警告稱，這將使全球備用產能降至20多年來的最低水平。

根據路透社來自歐佩克內部不愿透露姓名的消息人士的話，即使是高油價似乎也未能說服歐佩克+增加產量。其中一位消息人士表示，“更快增產的問題沒有出現，我懷疑增產問題會不會出現。” 

這可能是因為歐佩克+喜歡當前的油價，也可能是因為歐佩克+連續幾個月未能實現月度配額背后的備用產能問題。

PVM的Tamas Varga日前對路透社表示：“石油市場目前毫無保留地看漲?！薄皣H緊張局勢、供應緊張的感覺和寒冷的冬季是這種強勁看漲背后的最重要因素。”

李峻 編譯自 美國油價網

原文如下：

OPEC+ Still Expects Oil Surplus This Year

OPEC+ still expects the global oil market to be in a surplus this year, but has revised the overhang by 100,000 bpd to 1.3 million bpd, Reuters reported citing the group's Joint Technical Committee, which met yesterday ahead of today's monthly meeting of OPEC+.

The meeting itself is unlikely to produce any shocks: according to unnamed sources cited by Reuters, the cartel planned to stick to its arrangement of adding 400,000 bpd in collective output to its monthly total until national production levels returned to pre-pandemic levels.

This, however, may be tough for many members of the group, which have been struggling for months to meet the quotas assigned to them under the agreement that marked the beginning of a reversal in the deepest oil production cuts ever made by OPEC and its Russia-led partners. In response to the pandemic and the destruction of oil demand it caused, the group agreed to take almost 8 million bpd off the market.

The production cuts, combined with lower investments in maintenance and lower oil exploration, reduced OPEC+'s spare capacity substantially, prompting warnings that this would bring down global spare oil capacity to the lowest in more than two decades.

Even high prices seem to have not managed to convince OPEC+ to pump more, based on information from Reuters' unnamed sources from inside the cartel, with one of them saying, "The issue (of speedier increases) did not come up and I doubt it will."

This could be because OPEC+ likes prices where they are, or it could be because of the spare capacity problem that has been behind the consistent failure of the group to deliver on its monthly quotas for several months in a row.

"The oil market is currently unreservedly bullish," Tamas Varga from PVM told Reuters this week. "It is international tension, the perception of tight supply and the cold winter that are the most important factors behind the strength."

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