據(jù)美國油價網(wǎng)2022年4月22日報道，渣打銀行分析師在本周發(fā)給美國鉆井網(wǎng)站的一份新報告中預(yù)測，今年全球石油日總需求量將維持在1億桶以下。

渣打銀行分析師在報告中預(yù)計全球石油日需求將從去年的9750萬桶增加到今年的9890萬桶。 從具體季度來看，渣打銀行分析師預(yù)計今年第二季度全球石油日需求將達(dá)到9730萬桶，第三季度日需求將達(dá)到9940萬桶，第四季度日需求將達(dá)到1.005億桶。

報告稱，今年經(jīng)合組織石油日需求將同比增加107萬桶，占今年全球石油日需求總預(yù)測量的4580萬桶，而非經(jīng)合組織石油日需求將增加37萬桶，占總預(yù)測量的5310萬桶。北美日需求預(yù)計將同比增加166萬桶，占總預(yù)測量的2680萬桶。 

渣打銀行的報告強(qiáng)調(diào)，國際能源署(IEA)和美國能源信息署(EIA)對今年全球石油需求的預(yù)測也顯示，今年全球石油日需求量將低于1億桶。  

IEA預(yù)計這一數(shù)字將從去年日需求量的9750萬桶增加到今年的9940萬桶，EIA預(yù)計今年全球石油日需求量將從去年的9740萬桶增加到9980萬桶。

需求面臨顯著下行風(fēng)險

渣打銀行分析師在報告中警告稱，他們認(rèn)為今年全球石油需求增長存在顯著下行的風(fēng)險，并表示，他們不排除今年全球石油需求增長為負(fù)值的可能性。

分析師在報告中表示，“有幾個區(qū)域令人擔(dān)憂”，“我們認(rèn)為今年美國的石油需求可能令人失望”。

渣打銀行分析師在報告中繼續(xù)表示：“我們對美國石油需求的擔(dān)憂意味著，我們對今年全球石油需求的增長預(yù)測(46.4萬桶/天)遠(yuǎn)低于EIA的預(yù)測(79.6萬桶/天)，但我們?nèi)员菼EA的預(yù)測(28萬桶/天)更樂觀。”

“此外，無論是經(jīng)合組織經(jīng)濟(jì)體還是非經(jīng)合組織經(jīng)濟(jì)體，都存在價格效應(yīng)，早期數(shù)據(jù)顯示，印度的石油需求可能對油價飆升特別敏感。”分析師如是表示。

波動性盛行

渣打銀行分析師在日前發(fā)給美國鉆井網(wǎng)站的另一份報告中指出，油價波動與關(guān)鍵基本指標(biāo)估值的波動相呼應(yīng)。   

渣打銀行分析師們在報告中表示：“在爆發(fā)軍事沖突、經(jīng)濟(jì)不確定性、高價格和疫情措施之后，石油交易商和預(yù)測者一直試圖衡量供需下降的相對規(guī)模。”

分析師補(bǔ)充稱：“我們認(rèn)為，大國石油產(chǎn)量下滑幅度很大，但全球石油需求下滑的可能性也很大。” 

李峻 編譯自 美國油價網(wǎng)

原文如下：

2022 Oil Demand Expected to Stay Below 100MM Barrels Per Day

In a new report sent to Rigzone this week, Standard Chartered forecasted that overall 2022 global oil demand will stay below 100 million barrels per day.

In the report, the company projected that demand will increase from 97.5 million barrels per day (MMbpd) in 2021 to 98.9 MMbpd this year. Looking at specific quarters, the forecast expects second quarter demand to come in at 97.3 MMbpd, third quarter demand to come in at 99.4 MMbpd, and fourth quarter demand to come in at 100.5 MMbpd.

OECD oil demand will rise by 1.07 MMbpd year on year and account for 45.8 MMbpd of the total 2022 forecast, while non-OECD demand will rise by 0.37 MMbpd and account for the remaining 53.1 MMbpd, according to the report. North America demand is expected to rise by 1.66 MMbpd year on year and make up 26.8 MMbpd of the 2022 forecast.

The International Energy Agency (IEA) and Energy Information Administration (EIA) 2022 oil demand forecasts, which were highlighted in Standard Chartered’s report, also see overall global oil demand coming in below 100 MMbpd this year.

The IEA expects this figure to rise from 97.5 MMbpd in 2021 to 99.4 MMbpd in 2022 and the EIA expects demand to increase from 97.4 MMbpd in 2021 to 99.8 MMbpd in 2022.

Significant Downside Risk to Demand

Standard Chartered analysts warned in the company’s report that they think there is a significant downside risk to 2022 oil demand growth and stated that they do not discount the possibility that oil demand growth will be negative.

“There are several areas of concern,” the analysts stated in the report.

“We think U.S. oil demand is likely to disappoint; January data proved very weak after revision and prompter unrevised data for March and April suggests that the weakness has continued,” the analysts added.

“Our concerns about U.S. demand mean our 2022 growth forecast (464,000 barrels per day) is well below the EIA’s (796,000 barrels per day), although we are still more optimistic than the IEA (280,000 barrels per day),” the analysts continued.

“In addition, there are price effects across both OECD and non-OECD economies, with early data suggesting that Indian oil demand may have proved particularly sensitive to the spike in prices,” the analysts stated.

Volatility Prevails

In a separate report sent to Rigzone last week, analysts at Standard Chartered noted that oil price volatility had been mirrored by volatility in estimates of key fundamental indicators.

“Oil traders and forecasters have been attempting to gauge the relative sizes of the supply and demand downside in the wake of war, economic uncertainty, high prices and  anti-Covid measures,” the analysts stated in the report.

“Our view is that the downside to oil output is large, but so is the potential downside to demand,” the analysts added.