據(jù)美國油價(jià)網(wǎng)2022年6月7日報(bào)道，全球領(lǐng)先的獨(dú)立大宗商品貿(mào)易和物流公司之一的托克集團(tuán)首席執(zhí)行官威爾周二在英國《金融時(shí)報(bào)》的全球董事會(huì)會(huì)議上表示，今年原油價(jià)格可能很快就會(huì)觸及每桶150美元或更高。

威爾補(bǔ)充說，原油價(jià)格飆升可能會(huì)引發(fā)全球?qū)@種大宗商品的需求下降。

托克集團(tuán)這一預(yù)測比其今年3月爆發(fā)軍事沖突后不久飆升的布倫特原油價(jià)格每桶高出10美元。  

布倫特原油目前交易價(jià)格在每桶119美元以上。

本周，高盛銀行將今年第三季度布倫特原油價(jià)格目標(biāo)上調(diào)至每桶140美元。花旗銀行也上調(diào)了其第二季度油價(jià)預(yù)期，至每桶113美元，第三季度為每桶99美元。巴克萊銀行預(yù)計(jì)今年油價(jià)平均將達(dá)到每桶111美元，比其上次預(yù)測上漲了11美元。

原油價(jià)格預(yù)測差異很大，波動(dòng)幅度為每桶40美元，但他們上調(diào)價(jià)格的原因也不盡相同。

其他看漲因素包括沙特阿拉伯最近宣布上調(diào)其重要市場亞洲的油價(jià)，以及歐佩克+增產(chǎn)幅度超過預(yù)期，向市場發(fā)出該組織認(rèn)為市場現(xiàn)在需要更多石油的信號。

李峻 編譯自 美國油價(jià)網(wǎng)

原文如下：

Trading Giant Trafigura Sees Oil Headed To $150 This Year

Crude oil prices may soon hit $150 per barrel or more this year, Trafigura’s CEO Jeremy Weir told the FT Global Boardroom conference on Tuesday.

The spike in crude oil prices would likely trigger demand destruction for the commodity, Weir added.

The forecast is just $10 per barrel over where Brent prices shot up to in March shortly after war.

Brent crude is currently trading above $119 per barrel.

The oil price predictions follow other analyst predictions this week, with Goldman raising its price target for Brent to $140 in the third quarter of this year. Citi also lifted its oil price forecast, to $113 per barrel for the second quarter, and $99 per barrel for the third quarter. Barclays sees oil prices averaging $111 this year—an $11 per barrel price increase from its last estimate.

The price predictions vary wildly – a $40 swing—but so do their reasons for making the upward adjustments. 

Other bullish factors include Saudi Arabia’s recently announced price hikes to its prized market, Asia, and OPEC+’s move to increase production more than it was expected to, signaling to the market that the group sees a need for more oil—now.

Another bullish factor for oil is the question of OPEC+’s ability to meet its new targets.