據(jù)美國鉆井網(wǎng)站2022年10月19日報道，根據(jù)伍德麥肯茲的一項最新分析，拉丁美洲的海上風(fēng)力發(fā)電項目將大幅增加，到2050年前海上風(fēng)電裝機(jī)容量將達(dá)到34吉瓦。 

從2032年起，拉丁美洲地區(qū)第一批風(fēng)力發(fā)電項目預(yù)計上線時，海上風(fēng)力發(fā)電活動將15.4%的年復(fù)合增長率。帶頭的將是巴西和哥倫比亞。 

伍德麥肯茲電力和可再生能源研究分析師卡里斯·普拉多表示：“我們已經(jīng)看到了支持海上風(fēng)電發(fā)展的重大監(jiān)管行動，巴西和哥倫比亞為未來的海上風(fēng)電活動提供了官方路線圖和指導(dǎo)方針。”“兩國都有越來越多的已規(guī)劃項目，截至今年第三季度，今年拉丁美洲已宣布的管道增長已占全球新項目宣布的34%。”

海上風(fēng)力發(fā)電能力的價值在于支持綠色氫氣項目，這些綠色氫氣項目有望在國內(nèi)能源使用和出口方面發(fā)揮重要作用。伍德麥肯茲預(yù)測，到2050年，巴西將占據(jù)全球綠色氫氣供應(yīng)總量的近6%，2030年后市場規(guī)模將進(jìn)一步擴(kuò)大。然而，巴西全國只有20%的綠色氫氣設(shè)施將是并網(wǎng)發(fā)電。 

普拉多說：“這些海上風(fēng)力發(fā)電項目大部分將是離網(wǎng)型項目，其中一部分將由海上風(fēng)能和其他可再生能源支持。”“這將對巴西未來的經(jīng)濟(jì)和作為全球能源出口國的長期地位發(fā)揮關(guān)鍵作用。然而，在監(jiān)管方面仍有許多工作要做，要實現(xiàn)這一目標(biāo)仍面臨許多挑戰(zhàn)。”

開發(fā)商目前面臨的挑戰(zhàn)包括有限的能源需求、輸電基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施的限制、來自其他來源的競爭、項目的可融資性以及供應(yīng)鏈問題。 

“盡管存在這些挑戰(zhàn)，但該行業(yè)仍有起飛的機(jī)會。如果監(jiān)管加強(qiáng)和基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施投資加快，再加上新興的綠色氫氣產(chǎn)業(yè)，未來海上風(fēng)電產(chǎn)能可能超過拉丁美洲地區(qū)的預(yù)期。”普拉多說。

李峻 編譯自 油價網(wǎng)

原文如下：

Latin America Offshore Wind Capacity To Reach 34 GW By 2050

Latin America will see a sharp increase in offshore wind projects, with capacity reaching 34 GW by 2050, according to a new analysis from Wood Mackenzie.

Offshore wind activity will correspond to a 15.4 percent compound annual growth rate starting from 2032 when the first projects are expected to come online in the region. Leading the way will be Brazil and Colombia.

“We have seen significant regulatory movement in support of offshore wind developments, with Brazil and Colombia providing official roadmaps and guidelines for future activity,” said Kárys Prado, Research Analyst for Power and Renewables at Wood Mackenzie. “Both countries have an increasing number of planned projects, and this year’s announced pipeline growth in Latin America already represents a 34 percent share of global new project announcements, as of the third quarter of 2022.”

The value of offshore wind capacity will be to support green hydrogen projects that look to play an important role in domestic energy use and exports. Wood Mackenzie forecasts that Brazil will capture close to 6 percent of the world’s total green hydrogen supply through 2050, with the market gaining scale after 2030. However, only 20 percent of the green hydrogen installations in the country will be grid-connected.

“The majority of these projects will be off-grid and part of it will be supported by offshore wind, alongside other renewables,” said Prado. “This will play a key role in the country’s future economy and long-term position as a global energy exporter. However, there is still much work to be done on the regulatory front and many challenges remain to make this a reality.”

Current challenges facing developers include limited energy demand, transmission infrastructure constraints, competition from other sources, project bankability, and supply chain issues.

“Despite all these challenges, there is an opportunity for the industry to take off. If regulation and infrastructure investments accelerate, combined with the fledgling green hydrogen industry, future offshore wind capacity could exceed expectations in the region,” concluded Prado.