據(jù)油價(jià)網(wǎng)2022年10月25日?qǐng)?bào)道，據(jù)德勤會(huì)計(jì)師事務(wù)所估算，由于油價(jià)上漲，美國(guó)石油生產(chǎn)商今年的自由現(xiàn)金流可能會(huì)增加68%。

路透社在一份有關(guān)該消息的報(bào)道中指出，盡管實(shí)際產(chǎn)量的增長(zhǎng)要溫和得多，但自由現(xiàn)金流仍將增加。 

正如業(yè)內(nèi)高管已經(jīng)反復(fù)指出的那樣，盡管美國(guó)不遺余力地敦促鉆井公司增加鉆探活動(dòng)，但產(chǎn)量增長(zhǎng)并不是他們的首要任務(wù)，因此燃油零售價(jià)格可能會(huì)下降。

德勤會(huì)計(jì)師事務(wù)所對(duì)100家石油公司進(jìn)行的抽樣調(diào)查顯示，石油公司的首要任務(wù)是向股東返還現(xiàn)金和償還債務(wù)。  

德勤會(huì)計(jì)師事務(wù)所對(duì)美國(guó)石油公司自由現(xiàn)金流的最新計(jì)算，比早先預(yù)測(cè)的今年自由現(xiàn)金流翻倍至1.4萬(wàn)億美元有所上調(diào)。 

與此同時(shí)，德勤會(huì)計(jì)師事務(wù)所指出，自由現(xiàn)金流的增加對(duì)資本支出的影響不大。德勤會(huì)計(jì)師事務(wù)所說，今年美國(guó)上游行業(yè)的資本支出預(yù)計(jì)將增長(zhǎng)29%，至1080億美元。 

白宮為促使石油鉆探公司增加鉆探量所做的最新嘗試是，在開始補(bǔ)充戰(zhàn)略石油儲(chǔ)備（SPR）時(shí)，向他們提供固定價(jià)格的石油合同。政府計(jì)劃在油價(jià)跌至每桶67美元至72美元之間時(shí)采取這一措施。

斯倫貝謝公司首席執(zhí)行官奧利維爾·勒·佩奇在對(duì)該提議的評(píng)論中對(duì)《華爾街日?qǐng)?bào)》表示：“實(shí)際情況比這要復(fù)雜一點(diǎn)。”

《華爾街日?qǐng)?bào)》在最近的一份有關(guān)該話題的報(bào)告中指出，事實(shí)上，業(yè)內(nèi)人士批評(píng)政府將SPR用作價(jià)格控制工具，正是因?yàn)镾PR在短期內(nèi)會(huì)釋放更低的價(jià)格，所以在這一過程中阻礙了對(duì)更多生產(chǎn)的投資。 

人們對(duì)這個(gè)盈利季節(jié)的預(yù)期是，石油公司將維持目前的優(yōu)先事項(xiàng)，其中一些公司可能會(huì)進(jìn)一步提高派息和股票回購(gòu)。 

李峻 編譯自 油價(jià)網(wǎng)

原文如下：

U.S. Oil Drillers Could See Cash Flows Increase By 68% This Year

U.S. oil producers could see their free cash flow swell by 68% this year, Deloitte has calculated, thanks to higher oil prices.

The increase in cash flow will come despite a much more moderate increase in actual production, Reuters noted in a report on the news.

As already repeatedly indicated by industry executives, production growth is not among their top priorities even though the federal government has spared no effort in urging drillers to drill, so retail fuel prices could fall.

Instead, according to a sample of 100 oil companies surveyed by Deloitte, top priorities include returning cash to shareholders and paying off debt.

The latest Deloitte calculation of free cash flow for U.S. oil drillers is an upward revision of an earlier forecast that saw free cash flow doubling this year to $1.4 trillion.

At the same time, the increase in free cash flow will have little effect on capital expenditure, Deloitte noted, saying capex in the U.S. upstream industry this year is expected to increase by 29% to $108 billion.

The latest attempt of the White House to make oil drillers drill more was to offer them fixed-price contracts for their oil when it starts replenishing the strategic petroleum reserve. The Administration plans to do that when prices fall to between $67 and #72 per barrel.

“It’s a little bit more [complex] than this,” Schlumberger’s CEO Olivier Le Peuche told the WSJ in comments on the proposal.

In fact, the industry has criticized the Administration for using the SPR as a price-control tool, discouraging investment in more production in the process precisely because the SPR releases lower prices over the short term, the WSJ noted in a recent report on the topic.

Expectations for this profit season are that oil companies will maintain their current priorities with some maybe boosting dividends and stock repurchases further.