據(jù)鉆機(jī)地帶10月21日報(bào)道，全球知名咨詢公司伍德麥肯茲（Wood Mackenzie）近日表示，到2030年，海上風(fēng)電的年度支出將從2020年的不到200億美元增至近1200億美元，這將是石油巨頭們的下一個(gè)押注。

據(jù)伍德麥肯茲稱，石油巨頭們可以達(dá)到他們所需要的規(guī)模，但這需要時(shí)間。包括?rsted、RWE和Iberdrola在內(nèi)的公用事業(yè)公司已經(jīng)鎖定了到2026年的大部分海上風(fēng)能管道。

但英國、美國和日本等許多政府都在加快租賃拍賣和集中招標(biāo)，以推動(dòng)凈零碳排放。石油巨頭正在為租賃選擇權(quán)支付高價(jià)，通常與現(xiàn)有公司合作，并準(zhǔn)備參與本世紀(jì)二十年代末的下一波大型項(xiàng)目。

伍德麥肯茲選擇每十億焦耳當(dāng)量的經(jīng)營現(xiàn)金流作為衡量生產(chǎn)石油、天然氣和電力的能源公司的通用指標(biāo)。當(dāng)電子取代大能源生產(chǎn)組合中的碳?xì)浠衔锓肿訒r(shí)，將電力、石油和天然氣轉(zhuǎn)換為一次能源當(dāng)量單位可以進(jìn)行直接比較。

海上風(fēng)電的運(yùn)營現(xiàn)金利潤率比未來上游油氣開發(fā)項(xiàng)目高出25%。它們甚至超過了油氣勘探開發(fā)利潤率最高的資產(chǎn)類別深水項(xiàng)目。海上風(fēng)電項(xiàng)目的長壽命也使其有別于大多數(shù)深水和傳統(tǒng)上游項(xiàng)目。該項(xiàng)目壽命通常估計(jì)為30年，發(fā)電量穩(wěn)定，幾乎沒有下降。只有國內(nèi)天然氣和液化天然氣項(xiàng)目接近類似的情況。

這種較高的利潤率和較長的使用壽命意味著在該項(xiàng)目的整個(gè)生命周期內(nèi)產(chǎn)生的現(xiàn)金流更高。從2025年到2040年，海上風(fēng)電投資組合將為每十億焦耳當(dāng)量提供4美元的平均運(yùn)營現(xiàn)金流利潤率。對于Dogger Bank等3.6吉瓦的大型項(xiàng)目，這相當(dāng)于在15年內(nèi)產(chǎn)生約90億美元的實(shí)際現(xiàn)金流。

假設(shè)油價(jià)為每桶60美元，同樣規(guī)模的深水、液化天然氣和常規(guī)項(xiàng)目在同一時(shí)期內(nèi)將分別產(chǎn)生80億美元、60億美元和50億美元的收益。

為了與其他投資選擇競爭資本，我們認(rèn)為大型石油公司需要實(shí)現(xiàn)10%以上的內(nèi)部收益率。關(guān)鍵在于如何在穩(wěn)定的現(xiàn)金流和較高的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)之間取得平衡。

利用杠桿和資產(chǎn)循環(huán)，基準(zhǔn)數(shù)字可以提高到10%左右。更高的商業(yè)價(jià)格敞口、建設(shè)“電轉(zhuǎn)x”項(xiàng)目(如綠色氫氣)、電力交易以及與零售相結(jié)合的方法，都提供了進(jìn)一步的好處。

例如，道達(dá)爾能源正在指導(dǎo)其可再生能源投資組合中70%的電力購買協(xié)議和30%的商業(yè)敞口。大多數(shù)傳統(tǒng)合同傾向于將價(jià)格鎖定15年，只留下“尾款”——以及付出比真正價(jià)值更多的錢——暴露在批發(fā)價(jià)格中。

伍德麥肯茲的分析表明，如果各大型公司捕獲了25%的海上風(fēng)電需求，到2050年，這些電子就可以取代它們在實(shí)現(xiàn)凈零排放過程中損失的約三分之一的油氣分子。太陽能和陸上風(fēng)能可能會(huì)填補(bǔ)剩余的缺口，但在加速的能源轉(zhuǎn)型中，海上風(fēng)能的貢獻(xiàn)可能會(huì)更高。

據(jù)伍德麥肯茲稱，隨著各大巨頭從大型石油公司轉(zhuǎn)變?yōu)槟茉淳揞^，一個(gè)精心策劃、多元化的海上風(fēng)電投資組合有望實(shí)現(xiàn)完整的一攬子計(jì)劃，但他們需要說服投資者，他們可以在海上風(fēng)電領(lǐng)域遵循“付費(fèi)參與”的策略。這通常會(huì)在上游造成糟糕的結(jié)果，扼殺回報(bào)，摧毀價(jià)值。

郝芬 譯自 鉆機(jī)地帶

原文如下：

Offshore Wind To Be The Next Bet For Oil Majors

Annual spending on offshore wind will rise from less than $20 billion in 2020 to almost $120 billion in 2030 and it will be the next bet for oil majors, Wood Mackenzie said.

According to Woodmac, majors can achieve the scale they need but it will take time. Utilities, including ?rsted, RWE, and Iberdrola, have locked in much of the offshore wind pipeline through 2026.

But the UK, Europe, the US, and Japan are among a host of governments accelerating lease auctions and centralized tenders in the push for net zero. The majors are paying up for lease options, often partnering with incumbents and positioning to participate in the next wave of big projects later this decade.

Woodmac chose operating cash flow per gigajoule equivalent (GJe) as a common metric to benchmark energy companies producing both oil and gas and power. As electrons replace hydrocarbon molecules in Big Energy production portfolios, converting power and oil and gas into units of primary energy equivalent allows a direct comparison.

Offshore wind’s operating cash margins are 25 percent higher than those of future upstream oil and gas developments. They even trump deepwater projects, E&P’s highest margin asset class. The long life of offshore wind projects also sets them apart from most deepwater and conventional upstream developments. Project lives are typically estimated at 30 years, delivering steady output with little decline in power generation. only domestic gas and LNG projects come close to having a similar profile.

This combination of higher margins and long life means superior cash flow generation through the project’s life. An offshore wind portfolio will deliver an average operating cash flow margin of $4 per GJe from 2025 to 2040. For a giant 3.6 GW project such as the UK’s Dogger Bank, that equates to around $9 billion of cash flow generation in real terms over 15 years.

Deepwater, LNG, and conventional projects of comparable scale would generate $8 billion, $6 billion, and $5 billion, respectively, over the same period, assuming $60 per bbl.

To compete for capital against alternative investment options, we think the majors need to deliver IRRs above 10 percent. The trick will be to get the balance right between the stability of cash flows and higher risk.

Using leverage and asset rotation, the baseline numbers can be boosted to around 10 percent. Higher merchant price exposure, building power-to-x projects – such as green hydrogen, power trading, and an integrated approach with retail all offer further upsides.

TotalEnergies, for example, is guiding for a 70 percent power purchase agreement and 30 percent merchant exposure in its renewable portfolio going forward. Most legacy contracts have tended to lock in prices for 15 years, leaving only the ‘tail’ – and more recently the nose – exposed to wholesale prices.

Woodmac analysis suggests that if the majors capture 25 percent of offshore wind demand, those electrons could replace about a third of the oil and gas molecules they lose by 2050 in the push to net zero. Solar and onshore wind might fill the rest of the gap but the contribution from offshore wind could be even higher in an accelerated energy transition.

As the majors morph from Big Oil to Big Energy, a well-curated and diversified offshore wind portfolio holds the promise of the full package, Woodmac claimed, but they will need to convince investors they can navigate the “pay to play” strategy in offshore wind. That’s often ended badly in upstream, killing returns, and destroying value.