據(jù)加勒比環(huán)球新聞網(wǎng)12月21日華盛頓報(bào)道，撒哈拉以南非洲地區(qū)的石油出口國(guó)應(yīng)該將國(guó)內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值(GDP)的5%至10%作為緩沖，以應(yīng)對(duì)未來(lái)油價(jià)大幅波動(dòng)。對(duì)許多非洲國(guó)家來(lái)說(shuō)，這意味著它們需要在未來(lái)10年期間保持每年高達(dá)1%的財(cái)政盈余。

正如在最新的區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)展望中指出的那樣，在過(guò)去兩年里，石油價(jià)格從每桶23美元的低點(diǎn)波動(dòng)到120美元的高點(diǎn)，導(dǎo)致依賴石油的經(jīng)濟(jì)體的收入高度不確定。然而，非洲地區(qū)大多數(shù)石油出口國(guó)還沒(méi)有積累足夠的資金來(lái)應(yīng)對(duì)不可預(yù)測(cè)的油價(jià)變化。事實(shí)上，撒哈拉以南非洲地區(qū)國(guó)家的主權(quán)財(cái)富基金持有的資產(chǎn)僅占GDP的1.8%，而中東和北非地區(qū)國(guó)家的主權(quán)財(cái)富基金持有的資產(chǎn)占GDP的72%，這迫使撒哈拉以南非洲國(guó)家在油價(jià)下跌時(shí)借入或提取金融資產(chǎn)。

因此，在過(guò)去截至2020年的10年里，撒哈拉以南非洲地區(qū)石油生產(chǎn)國(guó)的年增長(zhǎng)速度比非資源密集型國(guó)家慢了2個(gè)百分點(diǎn)以上，償債成本也幾乎是其他國(guó)家的兩倍。

此外，由于各國(guó)向低碳能源轉(zhuǎn)型，石油收入可能會(huì)大幅下降。到2030年前，撒哈拉以南非洲地區(qū)國(guó)家的石油收入可能會(huì)下降四分之一，到2050年，下降一半。現(xiàn)在建立緩沖將有助于該地區(qū)石油出口國(guó)在應(yīng)對(duì)油價(jià)波動(dòng)的同時(shí)順利向清潔能源轉(zhuǎn)型。

李峻 編譯自 加勒比海環(huán)球新聞網(wǎng)

原文如下：

Savings From Oil Revenues Could Help Africa's Producers Manage Price Swings

Oil exporters in sub-Saharan Africa should target buffers of around 5 to 10 percent of gross domestic product to manage large swings in oil prices. For many countries, this means they will need to maintain annual fiscal surpluses up to 1 percent per annum over a 10-year period.

As noted in our latest regional economic outlook , oil prices have fluctuated from lows of $23 per barrel to a peak of $120 over the last two years, resulting in highly uncertain revenues in oil-dependent economies. However, most oil exporters in the region haven't accumulated enough savings to insure against unpredictable oil price changes. In fact, sovereign wealth funds in sub-Saharan Africa hold assets of just 1.8 percent of gross domestic product compared to 72 percent in the middle east and north africa forcing countries to borrow or draw down financial assets when oil prices fall.

As a result, in the decade through 2020, the region's oil producers have grown over 2 percentage points slower per year than non-resource intensive countries. Debt service costs have also been almost twice as high than in other sub-Saharan African countries.

Moreover, as countries transition to low-carbon energy sources, oil revenues could sharply decline. By 2030, oil revenues in the region could fall by as much as a quarter and by 2050, by half. Building buffers now would help the region's oil exporters navigate the transition toward clean energy while managing oil price fluctuations.