據(jù)烴加工網(wǎng)4月14日報道，業(yè)內(nèi)消息人士和分析師表示，數(shù)家亞洲煉油商可能從5月起最大限度地提高汽油產(chǎn)量，并削減柴油產(chǎn)量，在夏季駕駛旺季到來之前，利用汽油利潤上升獲利。

此前，由于亞洲增加出口，柴油和航空燃油的供應(yīng)增加，導(dǎo)致利潤率大幅下降，而由于歐洲大陸供應(yīng)充足，通往歐洲的套利窗口自2023年初以來一直被關(guān)閉。

與此同時，由于交易商在4月至9月季節(jié)性旅游需求增加之前增加供應(yīng)，汽油利潤出現(xiàn)反彈。

通過調(diào)整產(chǎn)量，亞洲供過于求的柴油市場可能再次收緊，并支撐價格。

印度一家煉油廠的消息人士表示，如果價差繼續(xù)擴大，就有可能進行生產(chǎn)檢修或短暫限產(chǎn)。

作為亞洲煉油利潤率的風(fēng)向標，新加坡綜合煉油廠的利潤率從3月份的平均7.56美元/桶下降了一半以上，至3.17美元/桶，為2022年10月以來的最低水平。

據(jù)業(yè)內(nèi)消息人士稱，亞洲煉油商在汽油和石腦油等輕餾分油和柴油和航空燃料等中餾分油之間的產(chǎn)量變化程度，受原料和催化劑原因的限制，平均估計在3%至5%之間。

盡管如此，貿(mào)易商稱，煉油商仍在關(guān)注來自美國的強勁需求。美國是全球最大的汽油消費國，目前汽油和混合油的庫存短缺。

一位駐新加坡的blendstock經(jīng)紀商表示，盡管美國煉油廠在第一季維修后提高了產(chǎn)量，但仍需要進口。

更多的石腦油、石化產(chǎn)品

汽油產(chǎn)量的增加通常伴隨著石腦油的增加，石腦油可以用作汽油的混合原料，也可以用于生產(chǎn)乙烯和丙烯(用于塑料)。

數(shù)據(jù)分析公司Vortexa亞太區(qū)分析主管Serena Huang表示，考慮增加FCC運行量的煉油廠需要評估整體利潤率的提升，因為除了汽油外，更高的設(shè)施運行量將生產(chǎn)更多的丙烯。并補充道，塑料原材料丙烯的利潤率目前很低。

根據(jù)Refinitiv數(shù)據(jù)顯示，東北亞煉油廠自去年9月以來已將柴油日產(chǎn)量提高至500萬桶以上，此前該產(chǎn)品的利潤率飆升至創(chuàng)紀錄的每桶71.69美元。

另一方面，根據(jù)數(shù)據(jù)顯示，1月汽油產(chǎn)量反彈至400萬桶/日以上。

郝芬 譯自 烴加工網(wǎng)

原文如下：

Asian refiners to raise gasoline output, cut diesel to ease oversupply

Several Asian refiners are likely to maximize gasoline output from May and reduce gasoil output, cashing in on higher profits for the motor fuel ahead of the peak summer driving season, industry sources and analysts say.

The adjustments come after margins for gasoil and jet fuel slumped on rising supplies as Asia boosted exports, while the arbitrage window to Europe has been shut since early 2023 due to ample supplies on the continent.

Meanwhile, gasoline profits have rebounded as traders build supplies ahead of a seasonal travel demand boost from April through September.

By adjusting production, the oversupplied gasoil market in Asia could tighten again and support prices.

Refiners who can switch have been slowly making adjustments in the past few weeks, said a person working for a southeast Asia refinery who declined to be named due to company policy.

If the cracks continue to converge, there is a possibility of a production switch, a source at an Indian refinery said.

Complex refinery margins in Singapore, the bellwether for Asian refining margins, have more than halved to $3.17 a barrel - the lowest since October 2022 - from an average of $7.56 in March.

The extent to which Asian refiners can change production yields between light distillates - gasoline and naphtha - and middle distillates - gasoil and jet fuel - is limited on feedstock and catalyst reasons, estimated at between 3% and 5% on average, according to industry sources.

Still, refiners are eyeing strong demand from the United States, the world's top petrol guzzler, which is short on gasoline and blendstocks, traders said.

Even though U.S. refineries have ramped up output after first-quarter maintenance, imports are still required, one Singapore-based blendstock broker said.

More naphtha, petrochemicals

The rise in gasoline output is typically accompanied by more naphtha, which can be used as a blendstock for petrol or for the production of ethylene and propylene, used for plastics.

"Refiners considering ramping up their FCC runs would need to assess the overall uplift margins, as higher unit runs will produce more propylene, in addition to gasoline," said Serena Huang, head of Asia-Pacific analysis at data analytics firm Vortexa, adding that margins for propylene, a plastics raw material, are currently weak.

Northeast refiners have boosted gasoil production since September to above 5 million bpd after margins for the 10-ppm product soared to a record $71.69 a barrel, Refinitiv data showed.

Gasoline output, on the other hand, rebounded to above 4 million bpd in January, the data showed.