據(jù)鉆機(jī)地帶網(wǎng)站5月8日?qǐng)?bào)道，BMI油氣研究主管Joseph Gatdula表示，油價(jià)“大幅回落”的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)越來(lái)越大。

Gatdula告訴鉆機(jī)地帶稱，鑒于不確定的經(jīng)濟(jì)前景，油價(jià)大幅回落的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)越來(lái)越大，特別是考慮到持續(xù)的通貨膨脹正影響著全球市場(chǎng)。并補(bǔ)充稱，如果通脹依然頑固，利率繼續(xù)上升，無(wú)疑會(huì)給油價(jià)帶來(lái)壓力，并可能導(dǎo)致油價(jià)出現(xiàn)下一輪下跌。

至于美國(guó)，Gatdula表示，美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)仍致力于抑制通脹，并警告稱，如果通脹繼續(xù)保持“黏性”上行，將有必要進(jìn)一步加息。

Gatdula對(duì)鉆機(jī)地帶表示，利率的不確定性既增加了價(jià)格的上行空間（來(lái)自那些認(rèn)為加息很快就會(huì)逆轉(zhuǎn)的人），也增加了價(jià)格的下行空間。

他補(bǔ)充道，盡管目前，疲軟的經(jīng)濟(jì)前景正在給價(jià)格帶來(lái)壓力，對(duì)反彈的預(yù)期也不那么令人信服。

Gatdula警告稱，價(jià)格的另一個(gè)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)是對(duì)銀行系統(tǒng)的“沖擊”，導(dǎo)致信貸市場(chǎng)收緊，這也可能引發(fā)油價(jià)下跌。

盡管BMI負(fù)責(zé)人指出，該公司并不排除油價(jià)暴跌的可能性，但Gatdula概述了該公司認(rèn)為有兩種主要機(jī)制可以阻止油價(jià)大幅下跌。

他表示，首先是歐佩克+在管理供應(yīng)方面的決心。并補(bǔ)充道，4月份的意外減產(chǎn)只會(huì)強(qiáng)化“歐佩克看跌市場(chǎng)”。

Gatdula繼續(xù)說(shuō)道，其次，美國(guó)已承諾補(bǔ)充耗盡的美國(guó)戰(zhàn)略石油儲(chǔ)備。最近的市場(chǎng)傾向使美國(guó)有望將WTI的目標(biāo)設(shè)定在每桶67～72美元的區(qū)間，如果這觸發(fā)美國(guó)政府的采購(gòu)程序，理論上應(yīng)該為油價(jià)設(shè)定一個(gè)下限。

PVM Oil Associates的石油分析師Stephen Brennock告訴鉆機(jī)地帶，他強(qiáng)烈懷疑今年油價(jià)是否會(huì)暴跌。

Brennock表示，盡管經(jīng)合組織(OECD)的需求前景黯淡，但歐佩克+的供應(yīng)限制，將確保在未來(lái)幾個(gè)月內(nèi)實(shí)現(xiàn)支持價(jià)格的石油平衡。

他補(bǔ)充稱，如果油價(jià)長(zhǎng)期跌破每桶80美元，可以肯定的是，歐佩克將通過(guò)進(jìn)一步減少供應(yīng)來(lái)充當(dāng)后盾，以確保油價(jià)回升至這一關(guān)鍵門(mén)檻之上。

到目前為止，布倫特原油2023年的最高收盤(pán)價(jià)是1月23日的每桶88.19美元。2023年最低的收盤(pán)價(jià)是5月3日的72.33美元/桶。在撰寫(xiě)本文時(shí)，布倫特原油價(jià)格為每桶76.16美元。

郝芬 譯自 鉆機(jī)地帶

原文如下：

Could the Oil Price Crash in 2023?

A “major pullback” in oil prices is a growing risk, according to Joseph Gatdula, the Head of Oil & Gas Research at BMI.

“Given the uncertain economic outlook, a major pullback in oil prices is a growing risk, especially given the persistent inflation impacting markets globally,” Gatdula told Rigzone.

“A scenario in which inflation remains stubborn and rates continue to increase would undoubtedly put pressure on oil prices and could warrant the next leg down in prices,” he added.

Looking at the U.S., Gatdula said the Federal Reserve remains committed to taming inflation and warned that, should inflation continue to remain “sticky” to the upside, it would warrant further rate hikes.

“The uncertainty around rates is adding both upside (from those believe a reversal in hikes is due shortly) and downside to prices,” Gatdula told Rigzone.

“Although currently, the weak economic outlook is weighing on prices and expectations for a rebound is less convincing,” he added.

Gatdula warned that an additional risk to prices is a “shock” to the banking system resulting in tightened credit markets “that could also trigger a fall in oil prices”.

Although the BMI Head noted that the company doesn’t preclude the probability that oil prices could crash, Gatdula outlined that the business sees two main mechanisms halting a major slide in prices.

“The first being the OPEC+ resolve at managing supply,” he said, adding that “the surprise production cuts in April only reinforce the ‘OPEC Put’”.

“Secondly, the U.S. has committed to refill the depleted U.S. strategic petroleum reserves. Recent guidance puts the U.S. on track to target a range for WTI of $67-72 per barrel which should in theory set a floor for oil prices, should it trigger the U.S. government’s purchasing process,” Gatdula continued.

Stephen Brennock, an Oil Analyst at PVM Oil Associates, told Rigzone he strongly doubts that oil prices will crash this year.

“Irrespective of the darkening demand outlook in the OECD, supply restraint from OPEC+ will ensure a price-supportive oil balance prevails in the coming months,” Brennock said.

“Should oil prices dip below $80 per barrel on a prolonged basis, you can bet that OPEC will act as a backstop by further reducing supply to ensure prices recover above this key threshold,” he added.

Brent’s highest 2023 close, so far, was registered on January 23 at $88.19 per barrel. It’s lowest 2023 close, so far, was seen on May 3, at $72.33 per barrel. At the time of writing, Brent is trading at $76.16 per barrel.