先鋒自然資源公司認(rèn)為：受限制的產(chǎn)量增長(zhǎng)將在中期提振原油價(jià)格

成本上升限制了產(chǎn)量增長(zhǎng)，侵蝕了利潤(rùn)率

一些頁(yè)巖行業(yè)高管認(rèn)為，二疊紀(jì)盆地石油產(chǎn)量到達(dá)峰值只有五六年時(shí)間了

據(jù)油價(jià)網(wǎng)2023年6月11日?qǐng)?bào)道，美國(guó)最大單一投資頁(yè)巖生產(chǎn)商先鋒自然資源公司的一位高管日前表示，由于供應(yīng)增長(zhǎng)仍然有限，歐佩克+繼續(xù)限制產(chǎn)量，油價(jià)將在今年晚些時(shí)候上漲，在未來(lái)3到5年內(nèi)在每桶70至100美元的范圍內(nèi)交易。

在休斯敦，先鋒自然資源公司執(zhí)行副總裁貝斯·麥克唐納在能源市場(chǎng)分析機(jī)構(gòu)RBN能源公司召開(kāi)的原油出口會(huì)議上對(duì)路透社表示，勞動(dòng)力和材料成本上升正在減緩美國(guó)頁(yè)巖產(chǎn)量的增長(zhǎng)。此外，頁(yè)巖投資者希望獲得更多回報(bào)，并限制支出。

盡管在過(guò)去一年半的時(shí)間里，油價(jià)在很長(zhǎng)一段時(shí)間內(nèi)都沒(méi)有跌破每桶70美元，但成本上升限制了產(chǎn)量增長(zhǎng)，侵蝕了利潤(rùn)率。

麥克唐納對(duì)路透社表示，盡管歐佩克努力推高油價(jià)，但利潤(rùn)的擠壓確實(shí)阻礙了美國(guó)勘探和生產(chǎn)公司的重大發(fā)展。

“總體而言，你仍將看到溫和的(生產(chǎn))增長(zhǎng)率和較低的再投資率，因?yàn)槲覀兝^續(xù)專(zhuān)注于向股東返還現(xiàn)金。”先鋒自然資源公司的這名高管補(bǔ)充道。

近幾個(gè)月來(lái)，對(duì)向股東返還現(xiàn)金的關(guān)注，加上成本上漲和政府發(fā)出的喜憂(yōu)參半的信息，拖累了美國(guó)石油產(chǎn)量的增長(zhǎng)。

EIA本周上調(diào)了對(duì)美國(guó)原油產(chǎn)量增長(zhǎng)的預(yù)期，預(yù)計(jì)今年美國(guó)原油日產(chǎn)量將增加72萬(wàn)桶，高于此前預(yù)測(cè)的64萬(wàn)桶。

然而，頁(yè)巖業(yè)的高管們卻不那么樂(lè)觀(guān)，一些人認(rèn)為，隨著鉆井公司耗盡黃金探區(qū)面積，二疊紀(jì)盆地的石油產(chǎn)量將在五六年后達(dá)到峰值。

美國(guó)石油高管們已經(jīng)在3月初表示，由于美國(guó)頁(yè)巖產(chǎn)量增長(zhǎng)放緩，歐佩克將再次成為全球石油供應(yīng)中最具影響力的力量，而且在可預(yù)見(jiàn)的未來(lái)仍將如此。

先鋒自然資源公司首席執(zhí)行官斯科特·謝菲爾德今年早些時(shí)候曾對(duì)英國(guó)《金融時(shí)報(bào)》表示：“我認(rèn)為目前全球負(fù)責(zé)石油產(chǎn)量增加的是三個(gè)國(guó)家——他們將在未來(lái)25年負(fù)責(zé)。”

“沙特第一，阿聯(lián)酋第二，科威特第三。”

與此同時(shí)，謝菲爾德表示，二疊紀(jì)盆地的石油產(chǎn)量峰值距離我們只有五六年的時(shí)間，預(yù)計(jì)到那時(shí)，這個(gè)最大頁(yè)巖生產(chǎn)盆地的主要鉆井探區(qū)面積將會(huì)耗盡。

響尾蛇能源公司執(zhí)行副總裁兼首席運(yùn)營(yíng)官丹尼·韋森5月份在哈特能源公司召開(kāi)的Super DUG活動(dòng)上表示，二疊紀(jì)盆地的產(chǎn)量可能在2030年左右達(dá)到峰值。

他表示：“本十年結(jié)束前……前后幾年，你可能會(huì)看到二疊紀(jì)盆地石油產(chǎn)量的峰值，并開(kāi)始趨于穩(wěn)產(chǎn)。”

“我們花的時(shí)間越長(zhǎng)，它就會(huì)越長(zhǎng)時(shí)間達(dá)到穩(wěn)產(chǎn)狀態(tài)。但我們?cè)娇斓竭_(dá)穩(wěn)產(chǎn)，它就會(huì)下降得越快。”響尾蛇能源公司這名高級(jí)主管補(bǔ)充道。

韋森說(shuō)：“我認(rèn)為，十年后是考慮(產(chǎn)量持平或下降)的好時(shí)機(jī)，但不能把二疊紀(jì)盆地排除在外。”

最新的達(dá)拉斯聯(lián)邦儲(chǔ)備銀行第一季度能源調(diào)查結(jié)果顯示，3月底，由于成本飆升和前景惡化，得克薩斯州、新墨西哥州和路易斯安那州(包括二疊紀(jì)盆地在內(nèi)的最大頁(yè)巖油氣藏所在地)的油氣增產(chǎn)陷入停滯。

在對(duì)調(diào)查的評(píng)論中，一位美國(guó)勘探與生產(chǎn)公司的高管指出：“EIA本周發(fā)布了年度能源展望報(bào)告，預(yù)測(cè)未來(lái)30年美國(guó)的石油產(chǎn)量將持平。我們可能應(yīng)該告訴他們，我們將在5年內(nèi)看到頁(yè)巖產(chǎn)量的大幅下降。”

另一位高管說(shuō)，“當(dāng)前政府的政策將繼續(xù)對(duì)國(guó)內(nèi)天然氣和石油生產(chǎn)產(chǎn)生負(fù)面影響。未來(lái)幾年，石油和天然氣價(jià)格將飆升，我們將任由那些討厭我們的國(guó)家擺布”。

李峻 編譯自 油價(jià)網(wǎng)

原文如下：

Pioneer Sees $70-$100 Oil As Supply Growth Remains Constrained

·     Pioneer: Constrained production growth will lift crude prices in the medium-term.

·     Higher costs are constraining production growth and eating into margins.

·     Some shale executives believe peak Permian oil production is only five or six years away.

Oil prices are set to rise later this year and trade in the $70-$100 range over the next three to five years as supply growth remains limited and OPEC+ continues to restrict output, according to a top executive at the largest pure-play U.S. shale producer, Pioneer Natural Resources. 

Higher labor and material costs are slowing U.S. shale production growth, Pioneers's Executive Vice President Beth McDonald told Reuters at RBN Energy's crude export conference in Houston this week. In addition, shale investors want more returns and a limit on spending, McDonald added. 

Higher costs are constraining production growth and eating into margins despite the fact that oil prices haven't moved lower than $70 per barrel for an extended period of time over the past year and a half.  

"That squeeze in the margin is really keeping U.S. E&Ps (exploration and production companies) from moving forward in a significant way" despite OPEC's efforts to push up prices, McDonald told Reuters.

"In general, you'll still see those modest (production) growth rates and those low reinvestment rates because we continue to focus on returning cash to shareholders," the executive added. 

The focus on returning cash to shareholders has combined with cost inflation and mixed messages from the Administration to drag down U.S. oil production growth in recent months. 

The Energy Information Administration (EIA) upgraded this week its outlook on U.S. crude oil production growth, expecting gains of 720,000 barrels per day (bpd) this year, up from a previously forecast growth rate of 640,000 bpd.  

Shale executives, however, are not so optimistic, and some believe peak Permian oil production is five or six years away as drillers exhaust the prime acreage. 

American oil executives already said in early March that OPEC is once again the most influential force in global oil supply – and will be so for the foreseeable future – now that U.S. shale production growth is slowing. 

Pioneer's chief executive Scott Sheffield told the Financial Times earlier this year, "I think the people that are in charge now are three countries — and they'll be in charge the next 25 years."

"Saudi first, UAE second, Kuwait third."

Meanwhile, peak Permian oil production is just five or six years away, according to Sheffield, who attributed this forecast from March to expectations that drillers will have exhausted by then the prime drilling acreage in the top shale-producing basin.  

Permian production could peak around 2030, Danny Wesson, Diamondback Energy's executive vice president and chief operating officer, said at Hart Energy's Super DUG event last month. 

"[By] the end of the decade… plus or minus a couple of years, you might see the Permian peak and start plateauing," Wesson said. 

"The longer it takes us to get there, the longer it will plateau and run flat. But the faster we get there, it will decline faster," Diamondback's senor executive added. 

"I think end of decade is a good time to think about [flat or declining production], but you can't count the Permian out."

The most recent Dallas Fed Energy Survey for Q1 showed at the end of March that oil and gas expansion in Texas, New Mexico, and Louisiana – home to the biggest shale plays, including the Permian – stalled amid surging costs and worsening outlooks. 

In comments to the survey, one U.S. executive at an E&P firm noted, "The Energy Information Administration put out its Annual Energy Outlook this week, and it forecasts that oil production from the U.S. will be flat for the next 30 years. We should probably inform them of the collapse in shale production we are going to see in under five years."

Another executive said, 

"The administration's policies will continue to affect domestic natural gas and oil production negatively. Oil and gas prices will soar in the next few years, and we'll be at the mercy of nations that hate us."