據(jù)世界能源網(wǎng)6月16日?qǐng)?bào)道，據(jù)EIA最新中期報(bào)告預(yù)計(jì)，2026年后，用于運(yùn)輸?shù)氖褪褂昧繉⑾陆担A(yù)計(jì)強(qiáng)勁的石化需求將繼續(xù)支撐整體消費(fèi)。

該機(jī)構(gòu)今天發(fā)布的一份新報(bào)告《2023年石油中期市場(chǎng)報(bào)告》顯示，未來(lái)幾年，世界石油需求的增長(zhǎng)將放緩，幾乎停止，全球能源危機(jī)凸顯的高價(jià)格和供應(yīng)安全問(wèn)題加速了向清潔能源技術(shù)的轉(zhuǎn)變。

《2023年石油中期市場(chǎng)報(bào)告》預(yù)測(cè)，根據(jù)當(dāng)前政府政策和市場(chǎng)趨勢(shì)，2022年至2028年間，全球石油需求將增長(zhǎng)6%，達(dá)到1.057億桶/日，這得益于石化和航空行業(yè)的強(qiáng)勁需求。盡管有這一累計(jì)增長(zhǎng)，但預(yù)計(jì)年需求增長(zhǎng)將從今年的240萬(wàn)桶/日萎縮至2028年的40萬(wàn)桶/天，需求將達(dá)到峰值。

特別是，隨著電動(dòng)汽車的擴(kuò)張、生物燃料的增長(zhǎng)和燃料經(jīng)濟(jì)性的提高，2026年后，用于運(yùn)輸燃料的石油使用量將下降。

EIA執(zhí)行主任法提赫·比羅爾（Fatih Birol）表示：“向清潔能源經(jīng)濟(jì)的轉(zhuǎn)變正在加快，隨著電動(dòng)汽車、能源效率和其他技術(shù)的進(jìn)步，全球石油需求有望在這個(gè)十年達(dá)到峰值。”“石油生產(chǎn)商需要密切關(guān)注不斷加快的變化步伐，并調(diào)整投資決策，以確保有序過(guò)渡。”

在經(jīng)歷了三年的動(dòng)蕩之后，全球石油市場(chǎng)仍在緩慢地重新調(diào)整。在這三年里，石油市場(chǎng)首先被疫情所顛覆，然后又被地緣政治沖突所顛覆。這些引發(fā)的全球能源危機(jī)導(dǎo)致了全球貿(mào)易流的空前重組。隨著歐佩克+聯(lián)盟的減產(chǎn)緩和了全球石油供應(yīng)的上升，全球石油市場(chǎng)可能在未來(lái)幾個(gè)月大幅收緊。然而，根據(jù)新的報(bào)告，市場(chǎng)面臨的多方面壓力似乎將在未來(lái)幾年逐步緩解。

盡管如此，新興和發(fā)展中經(jīng)濟(jì)體蓬勃發(fā)展的石化需求和強(qiáng)勁消費(fèi)增長(zhǎng)將遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)抵消發(fā)達(dá)經(jīng)濟(jì)體收縮帶來(lái)的影響。

全球石油和天然氣勘探、開采和生產(chǎn)的上游投資有望達(dá)到2015年以來(lái)的最高水平，2023年同比增長(zhǎng)11%達(dá)到5280億美元。雖然支出增加的影響將被成本通脹部分抵消，但如果持續(xù)下去，這一投資水平將足以滿足報(bào)告所述期間的預(yù)測(cè)需求。然而，它超過(guò)了一個(gè)步入凈零排放軌道的世界所需的數(shù)量。

該報(bào)告的預(yù)測(cè)假設(shè)，即使需求增長(zhǎng)放緩，主要石油生產(chǎn)商仍維持其產(chǎn)能建設(shè)計(jì)劃。預(yù)計(jì)這將產(chǎn)生至少380萬(wàn)桶/日的備用緩沖容量，主要集中在中東地區(qū)。盡管如此，該報(bào)告指出了一些可能影響中期市場(chǎng)平衡的因素，包括不確定的全球經(jīng)濟(jì)趨勢(shì)、歐佩克+決策的方向以及亞洲煉油業(yè)政策。

歐佩克+聯(lián)盟以外的產(chǎn)油國(guó)主導(dǎo)了中期內(nèi)增加全球供應(yīng)能力的計(jì)劃，預(yù)計(jì)到2028年產(chǎn)能將增加510萬(wàn)桶/日，美國(guó)、巴西和圭亞那將領(lǐng)漲。沙特阿拉伯、阿聯(lián)酋和伊拉克領(lǐng)導(dǎo)了歐佩克+內(nèi)部的產(chǎn)能建設(shè)計(jì)劃，而非洲和亞洲成員國(guó)將與持續(xù)下降產(chǎn)能進(jìn)行斗爭(zhēng)，產(chǎn)能大國(guó)的產(chǎn)量也因制裁而下降。這使得歐佩克+的23個(gè)成員國(guó)在報(bào)告預(yù)測(cè)期內(nèi)的凈產(chǎn)能增加了80萬(wàn)桶/天。

在煉油行業(yè)，自疫情以來(lái)，由于一波又一波的關(guān)閉、向生物燃料工廠的轉(zhuǎn)換和項(xiàng)目延誤，全球產(chǎn)能的過(guò)剩已經(jīng)減少。加上亞洲石油產(chǎn)品出口的急劇下降和產(chǎn)能大國(guó)貿(mào)易流的動(dòng)蕩，該行業(yè)去年的利潤(rùn)創(chuàng)下了歷史新高。盡管到2028年，煉廠凈新增產(chǎn)能預(yù)計(jì)將超過(guò)精煉產(chǎn)品的需求增長(zhǎng)，但各產(chǎn)品之間的差異趨勢(shì)意味著，2022年中間餾分油的緊張狀況存在再次出現(xiàn)的可能。

IEA最新中期報(bào)告預(yù)計(jì)，2026年后，用于運(yùn)輸?shù)氖褪褂昧繉⑾陆担A(yù)計(jì)強(qiáng)勁的石化需求仍將支撐整體消費(fèi)。

林圣澤 編譯自 世界能源網(wǎng)

原文如下：

Growth in Global Oil Demand Is Set to Slow Significantly by 2028

New IEA medium-term report sees oil use for transport going into decline after 2026, but overall consumption is expected to be supported by strong petrochemicals demand.

Growth in the world’s demand for oil is set to slow almost to a halt in the coming years, with the high prices and security of supply concerns highlighted by the global energy crisis hastening the shift towards cleaner energy technologies, according to a new IEA report released today.

The Oil 2023 medium-term market report forecasts that based on current government policies and market trends, global oil demand will rise by 6% between 2022 and 2028 to reach 105.7 million barrels per day (mb/d) –supported by robust demand from the petrochemical and aviation sectors. Despite this cumulative increase, annual demand growth is expected to shrivel from 2.4 mb/d this year to just 0.4 mb/d in 2028, putting a peak in demand in sight.

In particular, the use of oil for transport fuels is set to go into decline after 2026 as the expansion of electric vehicles, the growth of biofuels and improving fuel economy reduce consumption.

“The shift to a clean energy economy is picking up pace, with a peak in global oil demand in sight before the end of this decade as electric vehicles, energy efficiency and other technologies advance,”said IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol. “Oil producers need to pay careful attention to the gathering pace of change and calibrate their investment decisions to ensure an orderly transition.”

Global oil markets are still slowly recalibrating after three turbulent years in which they were upended first by the Covid-19 pandemic and then by the war. The global energy crisis triggered by the war in Ukraine has resulted in an unprecedented reshuffling of global trade flows. Global oil markets could tighten significantly in the coming months, as production cuts by the OPEC+ alliance temper an upswing in global oil supplies. However, the multifaceted strains on markets look set to ease in the following years, according to the new report.

Nevertheless, burgeoning petrochemical demand and strong consumption growth in emerging and developing economies will more than offset a contraction in advanced economies.

Global upstream investments in oil and gas exploration, extraction and production are on course to reach their highest levels since 2015, growing 11% year-on-year to USD 528 billion in 2023. While the impact of higher spending will be partly offset by cost inflation, this level of investment, if sustained, would be adequate to meet forecast demand in the period covered by the report. However, it exceeds the amount that would be needed in a world that gets on track for net zero emissions.

The report’s projections assume major oil producers maintain their plans to build up capacity even as demand growth slows. This is expected to result in a spare capacity cushion of at least 3.8 mb/d, concentrated in the Middle East. The report nonetheless notes a number of factors that could affect market balances over the medium term –including uncertain global economic trends, the direction of OPEC+ decisions and Asian refining industry policy.

Oil producing countries outside the OPEC+ alliance dominate plans for increasing global supply capacity in the medium term, with an expected rise of 5.1 mb/d by 2028 led by the United States, Brazil and Guyana. Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Iraq lead the plans for capacity building within OPEC+, while African and Asian members are set to struggle with continuing declines, and the largger producer's production falls due to sanctions. This makes for a net capacity gain of 0.8 mb/d from the 23 members in OPEC+ overall over the report’s forecast period.

In the refining sector, the overhang in global capacity has been reduced by waves of closures, conversions to biofuel plants and project delays since the pandemic. This, combined with a sharp drop in Asian oil product exports and an upheaval of the largger producer trade flows, resulted in record profits for the industry last year. While the amount of net refinery capacity additions by 2028 is expected to outpace demand growth for refined products, diverging trends among products means that a repeat of the 2022 tightness in middle distillates cannot be ruled out.

New IEA medium-term report sees oil use for transport going into decline after 2026, but overall consumption is expected to be supported by strong petrochemicals demand.