據(jù)烴加工網(wǎng)7月7日?qǐng)?bào)道，油價(jià)7月7日攀升約2%，至6周以來(lái)高點(diǎn)，因市場(chǎng)對(duì)供應(yīng)的擔(dān)憂超過(guò)了進(jìn)一步加息可能減緩經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)和減少石油需求的擔(dān)憂。

美國(guó)東部時(shí)間7月7日下午1時(shí)39分（格林尼治時(shí)間17時(shí)39分），布倫特原油期貨價(jià)格上漲1.41美元，至每桶77.93美元，漲幅為1.8%。美國(guó)WTI上漲1.51美元至73.31美元，漲幅2.1%。

兩個(gè)基準(zhǔn)指數(shù)都有望創(chuàng)下5月24日以來(lái)的最高收盤價(jià)，本周都上漲了約4%。

OANDA高級(jí)市場(chǎng)分析師厄拉姆表示，7月7日之前左右一周的油價(jià)反彈相當(dāng)強(qiáng)勁，并受到了動(dòng)力的支撐，此外還有新一輪減產(chǎn)對(duì)市場(chǎng)的影響。

兩大主要石油出口國(guó)當(dāng)周宣布了新的減產(chǎn)計(jì)劃，使歐佩克+、歐佩克及其盟國(guó)的總?cè)諟p產(chǎn)量達(dá)到500萬(wàn)桶左右，約占全球石油需求的5%。

美國(guó)金融服務(wù)公司Morning star的分析師在一份報(bào)告中表示，歐佩克+減產(chǎn)預(yù)計(jì)將收緊市場(chǎng)，推動(dòng)2023年下半年的供應(yīng)短缺，支撐油價(jià)上漲。

接近歐佩克的消息人士稱，歐佩克可能會(huì)對(duì)明年的石油需求增長(zhǎng)保持樂(lè)觀的看法。

據(jù)石油分析公司Vortexa表示，目前在埃及紅海港口Ain Sukhna附近的浮動(dòng)儲(chǔ)存設(shè)施中有1050萬(wàn)桶沙特原油，比6月中旬減少了近一半。

能源服務(wù)公司貝克休斯表示，當(dāng)周美國(guó)能源公司10周來(lái)首次增加油氣鉆機(jī)數(shù)量，這是自2016年10月以來(lái)天然氣鉆機(jī)的最大單周增幅。

在挪威，由于人手短缺，Equinor ASA暫停了北海Oseberg East油田的生產(chǎn)。

美元7月7日跌至兩周低點(diǎn)，此前數(shù)據(jù)顯示美國(guó)就業(yè)增長(zhǎng)低于預(yù)期但仍足夠強(qiáng)勁，或促使美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)如其所暗示的那樣，在本月稍晚時(shí)恢復(fù)加息。

美元走弱使得其他貨幣持有者的購(gòu)買原油價(jià)格更便宜，這可能會(huì)提振石油需求。

荷蘭國(guó)際集團(tuán)(ING)首席國(guó)際經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家James Knightley在一份報(bào)告中表示，就業(yè)報(bào)告弱于普遍預(yù)期，為近期的市場(chǎng)走勢(shì)減弱了一些動(dòng)力，但勞動(dòng)力市場(chǎng)仍然過(guò)于緊張，因此預(yù)測(cè)美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)將于7月加息。

根據(jù)芝交所的分析師FedWatch Tool顯示，市場(chǎng)預(yù)測(cè)美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)在7月25日至26日會(huì)議上加息25個(gè)基點(diǎn)的概率目前在95%左右，高于就業(yè)及經(jīng)濟(jì)數(shù)據(jù)公布前的92%。

借貸成本上升可能會(huì)減緩經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)，減少石油需求。

在歐洲，數(shù)十年來(lái)居高不下的通脹率和地緣政治沖突的影響迫使企業(yè)凍結(jié)招聘和裁員。

在德國(guó)，經(jīng)濟(jì)迅速?gòu)?fù)蘇的可能性似乎較小，因?yàn)閿?shù)據(jù)顯示工業(yè)生產(chǎn)意外下降。

郝芬 譯自 烴加工網(wǎng)

原文如下:

Oil prices up 2% to 6-week high on supply concerns

Oil prices climbed about 2% to a six-week high on Friday as supply concerns outweighed fears that further interest rate hikes could slow economic growth and reduce demand for oil.

Brent futures rose $1.41, or 1.8%, to $77.93 a barrel by 1:39 p.m. EDT (1739 GMT). U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rose $1.51, or 2.1%, to $73.31.

Both benchmarks were on track for their highest closes since May 24 with both up about 4% for the week.

"The rally over the last week or so ... has been quite strong and backed by momentum - as well as fresh cuts ," said Craig Erlam, a senior market analyst at OANDA.

Top two oil exporters announced fresh output cuts this week bringing total reductions by OPEC+, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies, to around 5 million barrels per day (bpd), or about 5% of global oil demand.

"OPEC+ production cuts are expected to tighten the market, driving supply deficits in the second half of 2023, supporting higher oil prices," analysts at U.S. financial services company Morningstar said in a note.

OPEC will likely maintain an upbeat view on oil demand growth for next year, sources close to OPEC said.

The latest pledge to reduce oil exports will not require a similar cut in production, a government source told Reuters.

Oil analytics firm Vortexa said there are currently 10.5 million barrels of Saudi crude in floating storage off the Egyptian Red Sea port of Ain Sukhna, down by almost half from mid-June.

In the U.S., energy firms this week added oil and natural gas rigs for the first time in 10 weeks, due to the biggest weekly increase in gas rigs since October 2016, according to energy services firm Baker Hughes Co.

In Norway, Equinor ASA paused production at its Oseberg East oil field in the North Sea due to staffing shortages.

Also supporting crude prices, the U.S. dollar, fell to a two-week low on Friday after data showed U.S. job growth was lower than expected but still strong enough to likely lead the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) to resume raising interest rates later this month as it has signaled.

A weaker dollar makes crude cheaper for holders of other currencies, which could boost oil demand.

"A softer jobs report than widely expected has taken some of the steam out of recent market moves, but the labor market remains too tight ... A July rate hike is coming" from the U.S. Federal Reserve, James Knightley, chief international economist at ING, a bank, said in a note.

According to the CME Group Inc's FedWatch Tool, the probability that the Fed increases interest rates by 25 basis points at its July 25-26 meeting is now around 95%, up from 92% just prior to the data coming out.

Higher borrowing costs could slow economic growth and reduce oil demand.

In Europe, decades-high inflation and the impact of war has forced companies to impose hiring freezes and lay-offs.

In Germany, a swift economic recovery appeared less likely as data showed a surprise fall in industrial production.