由于石油市場(chǎng)的不確定性非常普遍，貿(mào)易商們正努力平衡經(jīng)濟(jì)的不確定性與持續(xù)的供應(yīng)削減和不斷上升的資本成本

盡管布倫特原油價(jià)格因沙特和產(chǎn)能大國(guó)進(jìn)一步減產(chǎn)的消息而短暫上漲，但在周三早盤(pán)交易中回落

周三早盤(pán)，西得克薩斯中質(zhì)原油(WTI)與布倫特原油(Brent)價(jià)格出現(xiàn)背離，上漲逾1美元，但仍低于71美元

據(jù)油價(jià)網(wǎng)7月5日?qǐng)?bào)道，沙特阿拉伯將延長(zhǎng)減產(chǎn)的消息傳出后，原油價(jià)格一直在上漲，周三開(kāi)始交易時(shí)略有下跌，隨后WTI跳高，而布倫特原油仍處于下跌狀態(tài)。

石油市場(chǎng)的不確定性使交易員們難以在經(jīng)濟(jì)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)與供應(yīng)削減之間取得平衡，盡管這些并不是他們唯一擔(dān)心的問(wèn)題。英國(guó)《金融時(shí)報(bào)》的一項(xiàng)新分析表明，不斷上升的資本成本使價(jià)格持續(xù)低迷，同時(shí)使市場(chǎng)在未來(lái)更容易受到?jīng)_擊。

在供應(yīng)方面，沙特阿拉伯本周早些時(shí)候宣布，將把其自愿減產(chǎn)的100萬(wàn)桶/日延長(zhǎng)至8月，甚至更長(zhǎng)時(shí)間。雖然這一消息并不令人意外，但削減的規(guī)模引發(fā)了市場(chǎng)的積極反應(yīng)。

沙特周二表示，這一額外的自愿減產(chǎn)旨在加強(qiáng)歐佩克+國(guó)家為支持石油市場(chǎng)的穩(wěn)定與平衡所做的預(yù)防性努力。

與此同時(shí)，產(chǎn)能大國(guó)表示，該國(guó)下個(gè)月將每天減少50萬(wàn)桶出口。

該國(guó)表示作為確保市場(chǎng)平衡努力的一部分，將在8月份自愿減少50萬(wàn)桶/日的石油供應(yīng)，將其對(duì)全球市場(chǎng)的出口量削減50萬(wàn)桶。

在正常情況下，這些綜合消息本應(yīng)使價(jià)格上漲至少一周，但本周市場(chǎng)對(duì)這一消息的反應(yīng)持續(xù)了不到一天。

在撰寫(xiě)本文時(shí)，布倫特原油開(kāi)盤(pán)下跌，而WTI上漲了一個(gè)多百分點(diǎn)。

三菱JFG分析師對(duì)路透表示，由于對(duì)全球經(jīng)濟(jì)放緩以及美國(guó)和歐洲進(jìn)一步加息的擔(dān)憂揮之不去，油價(jià)再次承壓。

彭博社指出，交易員將關(guān)注沙特阿拉伯能源大臣在今天晚些時(shí)候舉行的第八屆歐佩克國(guó)際研討會(huì)上的講話，以進(jìn)一步了解該組織的未來(lái)計(jì)劃。

與此同時(shí)，澳大利亞聯(lián)邦銀行(Commonwealth Bank of Australia)指出，人們的注意力可能很快就會(huì)轉(zhuǎn)向全球石油庫(kù)存狀況，因?yàn)槁吠刚{(diào)查預(yù)計(jì)，美國(guó)石油協(xié)會(huì)(API)今天晚些時(shí)候?qū)⒐歼B續(xù)第三周庫(kù)存下降。

郝芬 譯自 油價(jià)網(wǎng)

原文如下：

Oil Prices Diverge As Uncertainty Persists

*Uncertainty is rampant in oil markets, with traders struggling to balance economic uncertainty with continued supply cuts and the rising cost of capital.

*While Brent briefly jumped on the news of further cuts from Saudi Arabia and the bigger producer , it was falling back in early trade on Wednesday.

*WTI diverged from Brent in early trade on Wednesday, moving higher by more than a dollar but remaining below $71.

Crude oil prices, which had been rallying on the news that Saudi Arabia will extend its production cuts, began trade on Wednesday with a slight decline before WTI jumped even higher while Brent remained in the red.

Uncertainty in oil markets has traders struggling to balance economic risks with supply cuts, although those aren’t their only concerns. A new analysis by the Financial Times suggests that the rising cost of capital is keeping prices depressed while leaving the market more vulnerable to shocks in the future.

On the supply side, Saudi Arabia announced earlier this week that it will extend its voluntary cut of 1 million bpd in production to August and likely beyond. While the news did not come as a surprise, the size of the cuts prompted a positive response from the market.

“This additional voluntary cut comes to reinforce the precautionary efforts made by OPEC Plus countries with the aim of supporting the stability and balance of oil market,” the Saudis said on Tuesday.

Meanwhile, the bigger producer said the country will reduce exports by half a million barrels daily next month.

As part of the efforts to ensure a balanced market, the bigger producer will voluntarily reduce its oil supply in August by 500,000 barrels per day by cutting its exports to global markets by that quantity”.

The combination of these reports should have sent prices higher for at least a week under normal circumstances but this week the market’s reaction to the news lasted less than a day.

At the time of writing, Brent crude was trading with a decline from opening while West Texas Intermediate was up by more than a percentage point.

"Oil prices came under pressure again due to lingering worries over a slowdown in the global economy and further hikes of interest rates in the United States and Europe," a Mitsubishi JFG analyst told Reuters.

Bloomberg noted that traders will be tuning into the Saudi Arabian energy minister’s address to the 8th OPEC International Seminar later today to get more insight into the group’s future plans.

The Commonwealth Bank of Australia, meanwhile, pointed out that attention may soon shift to the state of global oil inventories, as a Reuters poll predicted the API will later today report a third weekly inventory decline in a row.