據鉆井地帶網7月10日報道，花旗銀行全球商品研究主管埃德·莫爾斯在接受鉆井地帶網站采訪時表示，沙特阿拉伯對全球需求疲軟非常敏感。

莫爾斯補充道：“市場疲軟的另一個因素似乎是供應過剩，不僅來自美國，還來自‘五個脆弱的’歐佩克國家，這些國家在2023年6月的石油產量為1056萬桶/日，而在2022年6月的產量為970萬桶/日。”

他告訴鉆井地帶，考慮到原本沙特宣布的每日減產100萬桶未能對油價產生任何實質性的影響，“正如預期的那樣，他們將減產延長了一個月”。

需求和產量

根據EIA今年6月發布的最新短期能源展望（STEO），第一季度石油和其他液體燃料的總消費量為每天9993萬桶。該展望預計第二季度的消費量將達到每天10081萬桶，第三季度為每天10160萬桶，第四季度為每天10169萬桶。

STEO顯示，第一季度石油和其他液體燃料的總產量為每天10106萬桶。該展望預計第二季度的產量將達到每天10133萬桶，第三季度為每天10140萬桶，第四季度為每天10169萬桶。

根據STEO數據，美國石油和其他液體燃料的產量在第一季度為每天2102萬桶，預計第二季度將達到每天2126萬桶，第三季度為每天2134萬桶，第四季度為每天2141萬桶，2023年全年為每天2126萬桶。STEO強調表示，2022年美國的產量為每天2021萬桶。

STEO指出，歐佩克石油和其他液體燃料的總產量在今年第一季度為每天3395萬桶。該展望預計第二季度為每天3373萬桶，第三季度為每天3317萬桶，第四季度為每天3321萬桶，2023年全年為每天3351萬桶。STEO顯示，2022年歐佩克的總產量為每天3417萬桶。

唯一選擇是延長減產

惠譽解決方案（BMI）石油和天然氣部門主管約瑟夫·加特杜拉上周告訴鉆井地帶網站：“考慮到自6月初首次宣布減產以來油價的疲軟，沙特阿拉伯唯一的選擇就是將自愿減產延長到8月。”

加特杜拉補充道：“削減或取消減產將為時過早，很可能對油價產生強烈的下行壓力，因為熊市情緒占據了價格行動的主導地位。”

在7月4日上午發送給鉆井地帶網站的一份石油交易簡報中，雷斯塔能源高級副總裁喬治·萊昂和雷斯塔能源高級分析師帕特里西奧·瓦爾迪維埃索指出，市場立即對沙特阿拉伯的減產延期公告做出了反應。

“雷斯塔能源認為，這一舉措強化了我們的觀點，即沙特減產可能每月延長一次，從而限制了今年余下時間內價格的下行壓力，無論宏觀經濟環境如何。”分析師在簡報中說道。

胡耀東 譯自 鉆井地帶 網站

原文如下：

Saudis Sensitive to Weak Level of Demand

Saudi Arabia is sensitive to the “weak level” of demand in the world, according to Ed Morse, the Global Head of Commodities Research at Citi.

“Another factor in market weakness appears to be too much supply, not just from the United States, but from the ‘Fragile Five’ OPEC countries, which combined produced 10.56 million barrels per day in June 2023, against 9.7 million barrels per day in June 2022,” Morse added.

The Citi Head told Rigzone that, given the lack of any concrete price response to the original one million barrel per day cut the Saudis announced for July, “as expected they extended their cuts by another month”.

Demand, Production

According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) latest short term energy outlook (STEO), which was released in June, total petroleum and other liquids consumption came in at 99.93 million barrels per day in the first quarter of the year. This figure is projected in the STEO to be 100.81 million barrels per day in the second quarter, 101.60 million barrels per day in the third quarter, and 101.69 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter.

Total petroleum and other liquids production was 101.06 million barrels per day in the first quarter, the STEO showed. The STEO expects this figure to come in at 101.33 million barrels per day in the second quarter, 101.40 million barrels per day in the third quarter, and 101.69 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter.

U.S. petroleum and other liquids production was 21.02 million barrels per day in the first quarter, according to the STEO, which projected the country’s output to come in at 21.26 million barrels per day in the second quarter, 21.34 million barrels per day in the third quarter, 21.41 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter, and 21.26 million barrels per day for the whole of 2023. U.S. production was 20.21 million barrels per day in 2022, the STEO highlighted.

Total OPEC petroleum and other liquids production was 33.95 million barrels per day in the first quarter of the year, the STEO outlined. The STEO anticipates that this figure will be 33.73 million barrels per day in the second quarter, 33.17 million barrels per day in the third quarter, 33.21 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter, and 33.51 million barrels per day in 2023 overall. Total OPEC output was 34.17 million barrels per day in 2022, the STEO showed.

only Option Was to Extend

Joseph Gatdula, the Head of Oil and Gas at BMI, a Fitch Solutions company, told Rigzone last week that “Saudi Arabia’s only option was to extend voluntary cuts into August given weakness in oil prices seen since they were first announced in early June”.

“A reduction or roll-back in the cuts would have been premature and likely would have had strong downside impacts to prices, as bearish sentiment is dominating price action,” Gatdula added.

In an oil trading alert sent to Rigzone on the morning of July 4, Rystad Energy Senior Vice President Jorge Leon and Rystad Senior Analyst Patricio Valdivieso outlined that the markets immediately reacted to Saudi Arabia’s production cut extension announcement.

“Rystad Energy believes that this move reinforces our thesis that this mechanism of a possible monthly extension of Saudi cuts limits downside price pressure for the rest of the year, regardless of the macroeconomic environment,” the analysts said in the alert.