據(jù)油價(jià)網(wǎng)4月27日消息，上世紀(jì)90年代末和本世紀(jì)初，埃及與國(guó)際伙伴合作，開(kāi)始發(fā)展液化天然氣行業(yè)。這使得Idku和Damietta電廠的產(chǎn)能分別增至720萬(wàn)噸/年和530萬(wàn)噸/年。然而，由于國(guó)內(nèi)需求強(qiáng)勁，原料氣的供應(yīng)在一夜之間消失了，直到2012年，兩家液化天然氣工廠陷入停頓。埃及的命運(yùn)在過(guò)去幾年里有了顯著的改善，Idku的重新啟動(dòng)。現(xiàn)在，在幾乎9年的停頓后Damietta也開(kāi)始重啟了。盡管出現(xiàn)了積極的跡象，但挑戰(zhàn)依然存在。

　　在過(guò)去十年中，埃及發(fā)現(xiàn)了幾處主要的海上天然氣資源，其中最大的是超大型佐爾(Zohr)氣田，這改善了埃及的能源前景。自2018年Zohr開(kāi)始生產(chǎn)以來(lái)，Idku工廠一直在出口。此外，埃及Dolphinus Holding公司和以色列德雷克鉆井公司達(dá)成了一項(xiàng)具有里程碑意義的協(xié)議，并于2020年開(kāi)始從以色列利維坦和塔瑪爾海上氣田進(jìn)口更多天然氣。這筆交易價(jià)值195億美元，將在15年內(nèi)購(gòu)買850億立方米的天然氣。大部分天然氣通過(guò)Idku工廠出口到國(guó)際市場(chǎng)。

　　Damietta的重啟是埃及欲成為能源中心和出口國(guó)的又一重大成就。塞浦路斯還計(jì)劃通過(guò)海底管道將其近海油田的原料氣輸送到埃及的兩家液化廠。此外，還宣布了幾項(xiàng)投標(biāo)，以擴(kuò)大在地中海、紅海和西部沙漠的勘探活動(dòng)，以進(jìn)一步提高該國(guó)的國(guó)內(nèi)生產(chǎn)能力。

　　但新冠疫情對(duì)埃及天然氣行業(yè)造成沉重打擊，嚴(yán)重影響出口。去年，Idku工廠的加工比前年減少了60%。不過(guò)，今年的初步數(shù)據(jù)要樂(lè)觀得多。Cedigaz報(bào)告稱，由于天然氣價(jià)格高于30美元/英熱單位，其出口量同比增長(zhǎng)了3倍。受北亞冬季天氣、其它地區(qū)生產(chǎn)問(wèn)題以及巴拿馬運(yùn)河瓶頸等因素影響，現(xiàn)貨市場(chǎng)價(jià)格在冬季創(chuàng)下紀(jì)錄高位。

　　Damietta的重新啟動(dòng)是高價(jià)格和強(qiáng)勁需求的影響。蘇運(yùn)河大學(xué)(Sue Canal University)石油工程教授拉馬丹·阿布·阿拉表示，“作為天然氣出口中心，埃及將在該地區(qū)具有巨大的政治影響力，更不用說(shuō)在疫情的影響下對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)產(chǎn)生積極影響。”

　　埃及能否成功成為能源中心和主要出口國(guó)，取決于國(guó)內(nèi)因素和國(guó)際市場(chǎng)。國(guó)內(nèi)市場(chǎng)仍然消耗大量的天然氣，這再次意味著，由于需求的增長(zhǎng)，該國(guó)在2025年后將無(wú)法出口液化天然氣。開(kāi)羅仍在努力改革國(guó)內(nèi)補(bǔ)貼制度。賈斯汀·達(dá)金表示，“當(dāng)我們比較埃及為上游市場(chǎng)提供的投資條款，以及其下游國(guó)內(nèi)市場(chǎng)和液化天然氣出口的價(jià)格時(shí)，存在一些分歧。”

　　此外，國(guó)際市場(chǎng)的價(jià)格可能會(huì)影響埃及出口的盈利能力，因?yàn)橐恍┰蠚鈦?lái)自昂貴的深水油田，成本在5-7 美元/英熱單位之間。雷斯塔能源預(yù)計(jì)，埃及在滿足國(guó)內(nèi)需求的同時(shí)，能夠出口一些過(guò)剩的天然氣，直到2024年。據(jù)雷斯塔能源高級(jí)分析師Pranav Joshi稱：“考慮到以色列向埃及的管道出口也從去年開(kāi)始，將會(huì)有額外的天然氣來(lái)自塔瑪爾和利維坦氣田。但我們認(rèn)為其出口潛力非常短暫，可能只有5年。”

　　開(kāi)羅正致力于增加其在類似盆地和地質(zhì)條件下的勘探成功率，以提高其出口潛力。此外，現(xiàn)有的Idku和Damietta設(shè)施也是重要資產(chǎn)。然而，挑戰(zhàn)是巨大的，并不能保證成功。

　　裘寅 編譯自 油價(jià)網(wǎng)

　　原文如下：

　　Egypt Restarts Major LNG Project On Rising Demand

　　in the late 90s of the previous century and early years of this century, Egypt in collaboration with international partners started the development of its LNG sector. This resulted in the Idku and Damietta plants with a capacity of 7.2 and 5.3 mtpa, respectively. However, the availability of feed gas evaporated overnight when domestic demand rose strongly until 2012 and the two LNG plants came to a standstill. Egypt’s fortunes have improved markedly the last couple of years resulting in Idku's restart. Now, also, Damietta has started working after almost nine years of inactivity. Despite the positive signs, challenges remain.

　　The discovery of several major offshore gas resources during the past decade, of which the supergiant Zohr gas field is the biggest, improved Egypt’s energy outlook. The Idku plant has been exporting since 2018 when production at Zohr started. Furthermore, Egyptian Dolphinus Holding and Israeli Delek Drilling struck a landmark agreement and started importing additional gas from Israel's Leviathan and Tamar offshore fields in 2020. The deal is worth an estimated $19.5 billion for the purchase of 85 bcm over 15 years. The majority of the gas is exported through the Idku plant to international markets.

　　The restart of the Damietta is another major achievement for Egypt which intends to become an energy hub and exporter. There are also plans to transport Cypriot feed gas from its offshore fields through subsea pipelines to the two Egyptian liquefaction plants. Furthermore, several bids were announced to expand exploration activities in the Mediterranean, Red Sea, and the Western Desert to further increase the country’s domestic production capacity.

　　However, the Covid-19 pandemic dealt a heavy blow to Egypt’s gas industry which strongly affected exports. Last year, the Idku plant processed 60 percent less than the year before. The preliminary figures this year, however, are much rosier with Cedigaz reporting three times higher exports year on year due to prices above $30 MBtu. The spot market was hitting record prices in the winter due to a combination of winter weather in North Asia, production issues in other regions, and bottlenecks through the Panama Canal.

　　The restarting of Damietta is the effect of high prices and strong demand. According to Ramadan Abu al-Alaa, professor of petroleum engineering at Sue Canal University, "being a hub for gas exports, Egypt will have a great political weight in the region, not to mention positive economic impact amid the repercussions of the coronavirus pandemic.

　　Whether Egypt succeeds in becoming an energy hub and major exporter, depends on domestic factors and international markets. The internal market still consumes vast amounts of gas which could, again, mean that the country won’t be able to export LNG somewhere after 2025 due to rising demand. Cairo is still grappling with the reform of the domestic subsidy system. According to Justin Dargin, “There is a bit of a divergence when we compare the investment terms that Egypt provides for its upstream market, and the prices for its downstream domestic market and LNG exports.”

　　Also, prices on the international market could impact the profitability of Egyptian exports as some of the feed gas comes from expensive deepwater fields which cost in the range of $5-7 MBtu. Rystad expects Egypt to meet domestic demand while exporting some surplus gas up until 2024. According to Pranav Joshi, a senior analyst at Rystad, "Considering that Israeli pipeline exports to Egypt also started last year, there will be extra gas from Tamar and Leviathan. But we are looking at the export potential to be very short-lived, maybe half-a-decade."

　　Cairo is aiming to increase its exploration successes in similar basins and geologies to improve its export potential. Also, the existing Idku and Damietta facilities are important assets. However, the challenges are significant and success is not guaranteed.

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