據(jù)今日油價(jià)網(wǎng)站5月7日消息 雷斯塔能源的一項(xiàng)分析顯示，美國(guó)頁(yè)巖氣行業(yè)將在2021年實(shí)現(xiàn)一個(gè)重要的里程碑：如果WTI期貨繼續(xù)強(qiáng)勁，今年的平均價(jià)格為每桶60美元，天然氣和液化天然氣價(jià)格保持穩(wěn)定，生產(chǎn)商可以預(yù)期，在考慮對(duì)沖之前，碳?xì)浠衔锸杖雽⑦_(dá)到創(chuàng)紀(jì)錄的1950億美元，此前1910億美元的記錄是在2019年。

　　估計(jì)包括二疊紀(jì)、Eagle Ford、Bakken、Niobrara和Anadarko地區(qū)所有致密油水平井的油氣銷(xiāo)售。僅二疊紀(jì)盆地今年就將從致密油活動(dòng)中獲得1100億美元的預(yù)對(duì)沖油氣銷(xiāo)售額，而2019年為910億美元。

　　然而，企業(yè)經(jīng)營(yíng)活動(dòng)產(chǎn)生的現(xiàn)金流在2022年之前可能不會(huì)達(dá)到創(chuàng)紀(jì)錄的水平，這是因?yàn)閮r(jià)值超過(guò)100億美元的收入將被2021年的重大對(duì)沖損失所吸收。

　　盡管在每桶60美元的WTI環(huán)境下，致密油生產(chǎn)商的碳?xì)浠衔镤N(xiāo)售、經(jīng)營(yíng)活動(dòng)產(chǎn)生的現(xiàn)金和息稅折舊攤銷(xiāo)前利潤(rùn)均創(chuàng)下歷史新高，但由于生產(chǎn)商仍致力于維持經(jīng)營(yíng)紀(jì)律，資本支出并未呈指數(shù)級(jí)增長(zhǎng)。

　　雷斯塔能源頁(yè)巖研究主管Artem Abramov表示：“從上游現(xiàn)金流的角度來(lái)看，我們看到二疊紀(jì)的再投資率下降到57%，其他石油地區(qū)今年下降到46%。 由于償債和對(duì)沖損失，今年企業(yè)再投資率一般預(yù)計(jì)在60%-70%之間。”

　　王磊 摘譯自 今日油價(jià)

　　原文如下：

　　U.S. Shale Pre-Hedge Revenues Set To Hit All-Time High In 2021

　　The US shale industry is set to achieve a significant milestone in 2021: If WTI futures continue their strong run and average at $60 per barrel this year and natural gas and NGL prices remain steady, producers can expect a record-high hydrocarbon revenue of $195 billion before factoring in hedges, a Rystad Energy analysis shows. The previous record of $191 billion was set in 2019.

　　The estimate includes hydrocarbon sales from all tight oil horizontal wells in the Permian, Eagle Ford, Bakken, Niobrara and Anadarko regions. The Permian Basin alone is set to generate a pre-hedge $110 billion in hydrocarbon sales from tight oil activity this year, compared to $91 billion in 2019.

　　However, corporate cash flows from operations may not reach a record before 2022. This is because more than $10 billion worth of revenue is going to be absorbed by significant hedging losses in 2021.

　　While hydrocarbon sales, cash from operations and EBITDA for tight oil producers are all testing new record highs in the $60 per barrel WTI environment, capital expenditure is not growing exponentially as producers remain committed to maintaining operational discipline.

　　“From the upstream cash flow perspective, we see reinvestment rates falling to 57% in the Permian and to 46% in other oil regions this year. Corporate reinvestment rates are generally expected to be in the 60-70% range this year due to debt servicing and hedging losses,“ says Artem Abramov, head of shale research at Rystad Energy.

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