據(jù)今日油價(jià)6月3日?qǐng)?bào)道，環(huán)保激進(jìn)主義者要求石油巨頭大幅減少排放，并將戰(zhàn)略轉(zhuǎn)向低碳能源投資，而不是石油和天然氣，這可能在不遠(yuǎn)的將來，導(dǎo)致油價(jià)飆升。盡管環(huán)保人士和激進(jìn)的股東們希望大型國(guó)際石油公司進(jìn)一步削減上游投資，但世界能源體系還沒有準(zhǔn)備好剝離大型石油公司正在勘探和開發(fā)的油氣資源。目前，全球80%的能源仍由化石燃料來滿足，無論凈零排放目標(biāo)是否實(shí)現(xiàn)，全球向低碳能源的過渡將需要幾十年，而不是幾年。

　　對(duì)大型石油公司當(dāng)前戰(zhàn)略方向的指責(zé)，為氣候活動(dòng)家可能忽視的一些意想不到的后果埋下了伏筆。這些后果包括在無意中給予歐佩克更多的全球石油市場(chǎng)控制權(quán)。國(guó)有石油公司們(其所在國(guó)家的環(huán)保政策要比石油巨頭所在的歐美國(guó)家弱得多)將急于填補(bǔ)供應(yīng)缺口。

　　此外，在開發(fā)新資源方面的投資大幅減少，要知道，在2020年油價(jià)暴跌后，這種投資已經(jīng)很低了，可能會(huì)導(dǎo)致未來的供應(yīng)緊張。當(dāng)石油供應(yīng)難以跟上需求時(shí)，這將反過來導(dǎo)致油價(jià)飆升。

　　一些人可能會(huì)說，石油需求無論如何都會(huì)下降，世界對(duì)石油供應(yīng)的需求也不會(huì)像過去10年那樣大。但目前沒有跡象表明石油需求正準(zhǔn)備大幅下降，盡管存在一廂情愿的想法和凈零假設(shè)，包括國(guó)際能源署(IEA)的一份爆炸性報(bào)告，該報(bào)告指出，如果世界要在2050年達(dá)到凈零排放，就不需要批準(zhǔn)今年計(jì)劃以外的任何新的石油和天然氣投資。

　　但需要注意的是，即使全球氣溫上升2攝氏度，對(duì)新石油的投資仍將是重要的。伍德麥肯茲(Wood Mackenzie)分析師表示，新的低成本、低碳原油將是必要的，以替代成熟油田不斷減少的產(chǎn)量。伍德麥肯茲指出，如果來自國(guó)際石油公司的投資不足，國(guó)有石油公司將加緊探明新資源并將其商業(yè)化。

　　如果大型石油公司聽從環(huán)保主義者的呼吁和國(guó)際能源署“不再進(jìn)行新的石油和天然氣投資”的建議，那么在一個(gè)能源轉(zhuǎn)型剛剛開始、仍需要石油和天然氣來運(yùn)作和支持經(jīng)濟(jì)體的世界里，石油供應(yīng)將受到嚴(yán)重限制。

　　挪威石油和天然氣協(xié)會(huì)（Norwegian Oil and Gas Association）表示：“如果需求沒有像國(guó)際能源署在其設(shè)想中所假設(shè)的那樣迅速下降，同時(shí)供給端被掐斷，全球能源供應(yīng)可能受到威脅，并導(dǎo)致能源價(jià)格變得非常高?！薄Ｅ餐俏鳉W最大的石油生產(chǎn)國(guó)，其環(huán)境標(biāo)準(zhǔn)比歐佩克的石油生產(chǎn)國(guó)更為嚴(yán)格，其石油排放量是世界上最低的國(guó)家之一。

　　在歐洲，石油巨頭們正準(zhǔn)備在未來幾十年里減少排放，并逐步降低石油產(chǎn)量，以兌現(xiàn)到2050年實(shí)現(xiàn)凈零排放的承諾。然而，這些公司也意識(shí)到，石油和天然氣的利潤(rùn)將為他們的“能源轉(zhuǎn)型”投資組合買單。

　　原道達(dá)爾首席執(zhí)行官Patrick Pouyanné表示：“我們需要停止生產(chǎn)石油，這很好，但如果不再有足夠的項(xiàng)目或產(chǎn)量，將會(huì)發(fā)生什么呢？我們也需要慎重考慮?！?/p>

　　Rystad energy表示，過去十年來，大型石油公司的儲(chǔ)量有所下降，但即使是歐洲的大型石油公司，也繼續(xù)依賴以油氣銷售為主導(dǎo)的商業(yè)模式。這些公司都承諾成為凈零排放的能源企業(yè)。

　　Rystad energy負(fù)責(zé)上游研究的副總裁Parul Chopra表示:“如果儲(chǔ)量不足以維持生產(chǎn)水平，企業(yè)將難以為昂貴的能源轉(zhuǎn)型項(xiàng)目提供資金，從而導(dǎo)致其清潔能源計(jì)劃放緩?！?/p>

　　早在股東和氣候維權(quán)人士發(fā)出迄今最大的警告之前，大型石油公司就已經(jīng)意識(shí)到投資低碳能源的必要性。然而，如果石油巨頭在當(dāng)前計(jì)劃之外大幅削減未來的石油供應(yīng)，或者按照環(huán)保人士的要求“不開采”石油，這將導(dǎo)致油價(jià)飆升，也將使世界上大部分的石油供應(yīng)掌握在歐佩克+手中。

　　王佳晶 摘譯自 今日油價(jià)

　　原文如下：

　　Climate Revolt Against Big Oil May Lead To Surge In Crude Prices

　　The surge in climate activism demanding that Big Oil drastically cut emissions and shift strategies to investment in low-carbon energy instead of oil and gas could result in a surge in oil prices in the not-too-distant future. As much as environmentalists and activist shareholders want the major international oil firms to slash upstream investment further, the world’s energy system is not ready yet to deprive itself of the oil and gas resources that Big Oil is exploring and developing. As it stands, 80 percent of global energy is still being met by fossil fuels, and net-zero emission targets or not, the global transition to low-carbon sources of energy will take decades, not just years, and a shareholder meeting or two.

　　Last week’s rebuke of Big Oil’s current strategic direction sets the stage for some unintended consequences that climate activists may have overlooked.

　　These consequences include unintentionally giving OPEC even more control over the global oil market. National oil companies—in countries where environmental policies are much weaker than in the U.S. and Europe where the oil supermajors are based—will be all-too-eager to step up and fill in the supply gap.

　　Then, significantly reduced investments in developing new resources—which are already low after the 2020 oil price collapse—could lead to a supply crunch down the road. This will, in turn, result in an oil price spike when oil supply struggles to catch up with demand.

　　Some would argue that oil demand would fall anyway, and the world wouldn’t need as much supply as it did over the past decade. But there are currently no signs that oil demand is getting ready for a drastic fall, despite wishful thinking and net-zero scenarios, including the one from the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) bombshell report that suggested no new investment in oil and gas needs to be approved beyond this year’s commitments if the world is to reach net-zero emissions by 2050.

　　Investment in new oil will continue to be important, even if the world gets on the 2 degrees Celsius pathway. New low-cost, low-carbon barrels will be necessary in order to replace dwindling production from maturing fields, Wood Mackenzie analysts said last week. If these investments from international oil firms are insufficient, the national oil firms will step up to prove and commercialize new resources, WoodMac notes.

　　If Big Oil were to heed all the calls from environmentalists and the IEA’s suggestion of ‘no new oil and gas investment ever again’, oil supply would be severely constrained in a world that is only at the beginning of its energy transition and still needs oil and gas to function and support economies.

　　“If demand does not decline as rapidly as the IEA assumes in its scenario, and the supply side is simultaneously choked off, global energy provision could be threatened and lead to very high energy prices,” said the Norwegian Oil and Gas Association, the professional body and employers’ association of the industry. Norway, Western Europe’s biggest oil producer, has more stringent environmental standards than OPEC’s producing countries and pumps oil at one of the world’s lowest emissions levels.

　　In Europe, oil majors are preparing to reduce emissions and gradually slow oil production over the coming decades as per their net-zero by 2050 pledges. However, those firms are also aware of the fact that it will be oil and gas profits that will pay for their ‘energy transition’ portfolios.

　　“It’s nice to say that we need to stop producing oil, but if there are no longer enough projects or production, what will happen? Prices will rise,” Patrick Pouyanné, chief executive at TotalEnergies, formerly Total, told France’s Europe 1 radio on Monday.

　　Over the past decade, Big Oil’s reserves have dropped, but even Europe’s majors, all of which have pledged to become net-zero emission energy businesses, continue to rely on business models dominated by oil and gas sales, Rystad Energy said in a report last month.

　　“If reserves are not high enough to sustain production levels, companies will find it difficult to fund expensive energy transition projects, resulting in a slowdown of their clean energy plans,” said Parul Chopra, vice president of upstream research at Rystad Energy.

　　Big Oil had already awakened to the need to invest in low-carbon energy even before last week’s biggest wake-up call from shareholders and climate activists so far. Yet, aggressive reductions—or ‘keeping it in the ground’ as environmentalists demand—in future oil supply beyond the oil majors’ current plans would lead to oil price spikes. It would also leave most of the world’s supply in the hands of OPEC and Russia.

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