據(jù)油價網(wǎng)2021年6月25日 報道,盡管美國向最大的進(jìn)口市場亞洲出口液化天然氣(LNG)的運輸成本飆升了65%,但美國的LNG海外出口量卻飆升至紀(jì)錄高位,并可能在今年晚些時候達(dá)到歷史新高。
據(jù)挪威著名能源研究和商業(yè)情報公司雷斯塔能源公司(Rystad)估計,截至今年6月,美國LNG出口到亞洲市場的短期邊際成本(SRMC)已上升至大約5.6美元/百萬英熱單(MMBtu)。Rystad在其最新報告中估計,這一邊際成本比去年年中高出了65%,當(dāng)時LNG需求因疫情而受到抑制,比2020年4.3美元/MMBtu的平均水平高出了30%。
盡管運輸成本上升,但美國LNG出口商預(yù)計不會像去年需求低迷時那樣關(guān)閉產(chǎn)能。 今年,全球LNG需求強(qiáng)勁反彈,包括最重要的市場亞洲。
“然而,盡管成本大幅上升,美國并不是今年對亞洲來說最昂貴的LNG供應(yīng)國。 埃及LNG重返市場,使這個北非國家成為LNG的邊際供應(yīng)國,SRMC約為6.30美元/ MMBtu。”
Rystad稱,由于亞洲需求強(qiáng)勁,且亞洲LNG現(xiàn)貨價格約為12美元/MMBtu ,因此,即便是更高的運輸成本也將被消化。
李峻 編譯自油價網(wǎng)
原文如下:
U.S. LNG Exports Are Surging Despite Jump In Shipping Costs
Despite a 65-percent jump in the cost of U.S. exports of liquefied natural gas to the biggest import market, Asia, American LNG shipments abroad have soared to record highs and are likely to reach new all-time highs later this year.
According to estimates from independent energy research firm Rystad Energy, the short-run marginal cost (SRMC) of U.S. LNG exports to the Asian market has risen to about $5.60 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) as of June 2021. That cost is a massive 65-percent higher than in the middle of last year, when LNG demand was depressed with the pandemic, and is 30 percent higher than the 2020 average of $4.30 per MMBtu, Rystad Energy estimates in its new report.
Despite the higher costs, U.S. exporters of LNG are not expected to shut in capacity as they did last year when demand was low. This year, LNG demand globally, including in the most important market, Asia, has rebounded strongly.
“Despite the significant cost increase, the US is not the most expensive supplier to Asia this year, however. The comeback of Egyptian LNG to the market has seen the North African country assume the role as the marginal supplier of LNG, with an SRMC of about $6.30 per MMBtu,” Rystad Energy said.
Even the higher costs would be absorbed because of the strong demand in Asia and the high Asian spot prices of around $12 per MMBtu, according to the research firm.
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