據世界能源7月24日消息：油價從周一的大幅下滑中強勁反彈后，周五小幅走高，因為市場預期今年供應仍將緊張。

　　由于擔心美國、英國、日本和其他地區新冠病毒Delta變種病例激增對經濟和原油需求的影響，油價和其他風險較高的資產價格本周開始下跌。

　　布倫特原油在周四上漲2.2%后，收盤上漲31美分，收于每桶74.10美元，漲幅0.4%。美國西德克薩斯中質油(WTI)在周四上漲2.3%，收于72.07美元，上漲16美分，漲幅0.2%。

　　本周，布倫特原油在連續三周下跌后上漲0.7%，而WTI原油在連續兩周下跌后上漲0.4%。

　　兩個基準指數周一均下跌約7%，但隨后收復了失地，投資者預計需求將保持強勁，市場將從石油庫存下降和疫苗接種率上升中獲得支撐。

　　德國商業銀行在一份報告中表示：“事實證明，對需求的擔憂被夸大了，這就是油價此后回升的原因。盡管石油供應增加，但直到年底，石油市場仍將略微供應不足。”

　　歐佩克與盟國 (統稱為歐佩克+) 達成協議，從8月起增產40萬桶/天，預計需求增長將超過供應增長。

　　澳新銀行分析師在一份報告中表示，市場開始感覺到歐佩克+的增產不足以保持市場平衡，美國和經合組織國家的庫存將繼續下降。

　　美國原油庫存上周增加210萬桶，但俄克拉荷馬州庫欣交貨點的WTI庫存跌至2020年1月以來的最低水平。

　　能源服務公司貝克休斯表示，本周美國石油鉆井平臺增加7個，至387個，為2020年4月以來的最高水平。但由于生產商傾向于緊縮支出，鉆井行業的復蘇一直較為溫和。

　　美國銀行在一份報告中表示：“我們仍然認為，歐佩克+推動原油和餾分油價格下跌是一個買入機會，布倫特原油明年將觸及每桶100美元，餾分油也將隨之上漲。”

　　馮娟 摘譯自 世界能源

　　原文如下：

　　Oil edges up on forecasts for tight supplies

　　Oil prices edged higher on Friday and for the week after a strong recovery from Monday's steep slide, underpinned by expectations that supply will remain tight through the year.

　　The price of oil and other riskier assets tumbled at the start of the week on concern over the impact on the economy and crude demand from surging cases of the COVID-19 Delta variant in the United States, Britain, Japan and elsewhere.

　　Brent crude ended the session up 31 cents, or 0.4%, at $74.10 a barrel after jumping 2.2% on Thursday. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude settled up 16 cents, or 0.2%, at $72.07, after gaining 2.3% on Thursday.

　　For the week, Brent gained 0.7% after declining for three consecutive weeks, while WTI rose 0.4% after falling for two weeks.

　　Both benchmarks slumped about 7% on Monday but pared those losses, with investors expecting demand to stay strong and the market to receive support from falling oil stockpiles and rising vaccination rates.

　　"The demand concerns proved to be exaggerated, which is why oil prices have since recovered. Despite the expansion in oil supply, the oil market will remain slightly undersupplied until the end of the year," Commerzbank said in a note.

　　Demand growth is expected to outpace supply after Sunday's deal between the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and allies, collectively known as OPEC+, to add back 400,000 barrels per day (bpd) each month from August.

　　ANZ Research analysts said in a report that the market was starting to sense the OPEC+ increase will not be enough to keep the market balanced and inventories in the United States and across OECD countries would continue to fall.

　　U.S. crude inventories rose by 2.1 million barrels last week, but stocks at the Cushing, Oklahoma delivery point for WTI hit their lowest since January 2020.

　　U.S. oil rigs rose seven to 387 this week, their highest since April 2020, energy services firm Baker Hughes Co said. But the recovery in drilling has been modest as producers favor spending austerity.

　　"We still think the OPEC+ driven dip in crude and distillate prices is a buying opportunity and project Brent will hit $100 a barrel next year, with distillates tagging along for the ride," Bank of America said in a note.

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