據(jù)能源之聲12月29日消息，Rystad能源公司的研究顯示，東南亞將在2022年至2025年之間做出最終投資決定(FID)，在新的深水天然氣和凝析油開(kāi)發(fā)中占據(jù)最大份額。值得注意的是，從2021年到2025年，該地區(qū)的深水開(kāi)發(fā)項(xiàng)目預(yù)計(jì)將花費(fèi)約250億美元，高于之前五年的20億美元。

Rystad 在一份報(bào)告中稱：“未來(lái)四年，全球220億桶油當(dāng)量中，東南亞將有近50億桶油當(dāng)量獲得批準(zhǔn)。在預(yù)計(jì)到2025年達(dá)到FID的20個(gè)左右深水項(xiàng)目中，前三名將是馬來(lái)西亞、印度尼西亞和越南的海上項(xiàng)目，其他開(kāi)發(fā)項(xiàng)目將在泰國(guó)、緬甸和文萊獲得批準(zhǔn)。”

在東南亞的資源總量中，印尼將占到60%左右，其次是馬來(lái)西亞、緬甸、越南和文萊。到2025年，共有20多個(gè)深水項(xiàng)目將獲得批準(zhǔn)。占這些資源近 70% 的前三大深水項(xiàng)目包括雪佛龍?jiān)谟《饶嵛鱽喌?IDD 項(xiàng)目、Inpex 在印度尼西亞的 Abadi 項(xiàng)目和?？松梨谠谠侥系?Blue Whale 項(xiàng)目。

這三個(gè)頂級(jí)項(xiàng)目在獲得批準(zhǔn)之前都面臨著巨大的挑戰(zhàn)。因此，最終批準(zhǔn)投資的時(shí)間表面臨風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。

其他正在進(jìn)行中的項(xiàng)目包括馬來(lái)西亞的Rosmari-Marjoram項(xiàng)目、文萊的Kelidang Cluster項(xiàng)目、馬來(lái)西亞的Kebabangan二期項(xiàng)目和Limbayong二期項(xiàng)目以及緬甸的Shwe Yee Htun一期項(xiàng)目。70%以上的項(xiàng)目由大型石油公司和國(guó)家石油公司運(yùn)營(yíng)。

近海大陸架最終投資決定

“在2022-2025年預(yù)計(jì)將被批準(zhǔn)的近海大陸架資源方面，東南亞是僅次于中東的第二大地區(qū)，擁有超過(guò)35億桶油當(dāng)量的FID資源。馬來(lái)西亞將占該份額的近50%，其次是印度尼西亞和越南，國(guó)家石油公司是這些項(xiàng)目的主要運(yùn)營(yíng)商。PTTEP在馬來(lái)西亞的Lang Lebah項(xiàng)目是其中最大的項(xiàng)目，為FID提供了超過(guò)5.75億桶的資源，緊隨其后的是越南國(guó)家石油公司在越南的B區(qū)塊天然氣項(xiàng)目，其儲(chǔ)量為5.6億桶。其他主要項(xiàng)目包括馬來(lái)西亞SapuraOMV的B14項(xiàng)目、馬來(lái)西亞國(guó)家石油公司的K5和Kasawari二期項(xiàng)目、印尼Conrad Petroleum的Mako項(xiàng)目以及英國(guó)石油公司的Vorwata項(xiàng)目。雪佛龍?jiān)谔﹪?guó)的烏汶油田也在準(zhǔn)備獲批，這是該國(guó)自2009年以來(lái)第一次大規(guī)模FID投資?！盧ystad 報(bào)道。

重大的挑戰(zhàn)

東南亞的海上開(kāi)發(fā)面臨著巨大的挑戰(zhàn)，其中包括與一些主要油田開(kāi)發(fā)相關(guān)的高二氧化碳含量。Rystad補(bǔ)充說(shuō)，到2025年，這些投資決策將帶來(lái)超過(guò)45億桶油當(dāng)量的酸性氣體和高二氧化碳含量。事實(shí)上，許多運(yùn)營(yíng)商，如馬來(lái)西亞國(guó)家石油公司、Inpex和英國(guó)石油公司，都在考慮將碳捕獲、利用和封存(CCUS)添加到他們的開(kāi)發(fā)中，以幫助減少排放足跡。

列出的一些頂級(jí)項(xiàng)目面臨的另一個(gè)潛在障礙是潛在的合并協(xié)議的進(jìn)展。馬來(lái)西亞和文萊的協(xié)議是在2021年初簽署的，然而，Kelidang集群的開(kāi)發(fā)仍在籌備中，尚未取得任何進(jìn)展。

此外，在東南亞，許多待批準(zhǔn)的項(xiàng)目也在出售，因?yàn)檫\(yùn)營(yíng)商要么尋求合作，要么將資產(chǎn)出售給另一家公司進(jìn)行開(kāi)發(fā)。該地區(qū)超過(guò)35億桶石油資源屬于這一類，這意味著FID時(shí)間表可能面臨風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。

殼牌正尋求出售inpex在印尼Masela區(qū)塊運(yùn)營(yíng)的Abadi項(xiàng)目35%的股份。雪佛龍正在等待將其在印尼IDD項(xiàng)目中62%的股份出售給埃尼集團(tuán)。而埃克森美孚正在為其在越南的Blue Whale項(xiàng)目尋找買(mǎi)家。

盡管存在這些障礙，但這些新開(kāi)發(fā)項(xiàng)目的額外供應(yīng)對(duì)于東南亞國(guó)家抵消預(yù)期的國(guó)內(nèi)天然氣產(chǎn)量大幅下降和對(duì)進(jìn)口依賴增加的影響至關(guān)重要。

Rystad估計(jì)，由于即將批準(zhǔn)的深水開(kāi)發(fā)項(xiàng)目，東南亞的深水天然氣和凝析油產(chǎn)量預(yù)計(jì)將在2030年翻一番，達(dá)到約50億立方英尺/天，而目前的產(chǎn)量約為25億立方英尺/天。

從2021年到2030年，該地區(qū)生產(chǎn)油田的大陸架產(chǎn)量將下降約60%。根據(jù)Rystad的數(shù)據(jù)，到2030年，新的大陸架開(kāi)發(fā)預(yù)計(jì)將增加約45億立方英尺/天的新產(chǎn)量。

裘寅 編譯自 能源之聲

原文如下：

Southeast Asia to dominate global deepwater gas activity with $25bn spend

Southeast Asia will lead other regions in having the largest share of new deepwater gas and condensate developments taking a final investment decision (FID) between 2022 and 2025, research from Rystad Energy shows. Significantly, around $25 billion is expected to be spent on greenfield deepwater developments in the region from 2021-2025, up from $2 billion over the prior five-year term.

“Nearly 5 billion barrels of oil equivalent (boe) will be sanctioned in Southeast Asia out of a total 22 billion boe globally in the coming four years. Of the 20 or so deepwater projects expected to reach FID through 2025, the top three will be offshore Malaysia, Indonesia, and Vietnam with other developments set to be sanctioned in Thailand, Myanmar, and Brunei,” Rystad said in a report.

“Of Southeast Asia’s total, Indonesia will be responsible for around 60% of these resources followed by Malaysia, Myanmar, Vietnam, and Brunei. A total of over 20 deepwater projects are due for sanctioning by 2025. The top three deepwater projects responsible for nearly 70% of these resources include Chevron’s IDD project in Indonesia, Inpex’s Abadi project in Indonesia and ExxonMobil’s Blue Whale project in Vietnam,” reported the energy consultancy.

Although all three of the top projects face significant challenges that need to be overcome before they can be sanctioned. As a result, timelines for final investment approval are at risk.

“Other projects in the pipeline include Rosmari-Marjoram projects in Malaysia, Kelidang Cluster in Brunei, Kebabangan Phase 2 and Limbayong Phase 2 in Malaysia and Shwe Yee Htun Phase 1 in Myanmar. The majors and internationally focused NOCs operate over 70% of these projects,” said Rystad.

Offshore shelf FIDs

“In terms of offshore shelf resources expected to be sanctioned from 2022-25, Southeast Asia is second to the Middle East with over 3.5 billion boe of resources set for FID. Malaysia will be responsible for nearly 50% of this share followed by Indonesia and Vietnam, with the NOCs the major operators of these projects. PTTEP’s Lang Lebah project in Malaysia is the largest in the list with over 575 million boe of resources set for FID, followed by PetroVietnam’s 560 million boe Block B gas project in Vietnam. Other major projects include the SapuraOMV’s B14 project in Malaysia, Petronas’ K5 and Kasawari Phase 2 projects in Malaysia, Conrad Petroleum’s Mako project in Indonesia and BP’s Vorwata in Indonesia.Chevron’s Ubon in Thailand is also in the pipeline for sanctioning, the first sizeable FID for the nation since 2009,” reported Rystad.

Significant challenges

Offshore developments in Southeast Asia face significant challenges including the high carbon dioxide (CO2) content associated with some of the major field developments. Over 4.5 billion boe of resources with sour gas and high CO2 content are due for FID by 2025, added Rystad. Indeed, many operators, such as Petronas, Inpex, and BP, are considering adding carbon capture, utilisation, and storage (CCUS) to their developments to help reduce their emissions footprint.

“Another potential hurdle for some of the top projects listed is progress on potential unitisation agreements. The Malaysia-Brunei agreement was signed in early 2021, however, the development of the Kelidang cluster is still in the pipeline with little progress yet made,” said Rystad.

Geopolitical tensions could also thwart developments with China staking claim to maritime areas offshore Indonesia, Vietnam and Malaysia, where oil and gas developments are planned.

Moreover, “in Southeast Asia many of the projects up for sanctioning are also for sale as operators look to either partner up or sell the assets to another company for development. Over 3.5 billion boe of the region’s resources fall into this category, meaning FID timetables could be at risk,” cautioned Rystad.

Shell is seeking to sell its 35% share of the Inpex-operated Abadi project in Indonesia’s Masela Block. Chevron is awaiting the sale of its 62% stake in the IDD project, also in Indonesia, to Eni. While ExxonMobil is seeking buyers for its Blue Whale project in Vietnam.

Despite the hurdles, additional supply from these new developments will be crucial for Southeast Asian countries to offset a significant expected fall in domestic gas production and increased dependence on imports.

As a result of set-to-be sanctioned deepwater developments, deepwater gas and condensate production in Southeast Asia is predicted to double to around 5 billion cubic feet per day (cf/d) in 2030 compared to current output of about 2.5 billion cf/d, estimates Rystad.

Shelf production in the region from producing fields is set to decline by around 60% from 2021 to 2030. New shelf developments are expected to add around 4.5 billion cf/d of new production by 2030, according to Rystad.

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