據(jù)烴加工新聞1月13日消息稱(chēng)，美國(guó)能源情報(bào)署預(yù)計(jì)，到2022年，普通汽油零售價(jià)格平均為3.06美元/加侖，高于2021年的3.00美元/加侖，然后在2023年降至2.80美元/加侖。他們預(yù)計(jì)，到2022年，高速公路柴油的平均價(jià)格將升至3.33美元/加侖，到2023年將降至3.27美元/加侖。在EIA的預(yù)測(cè)中，美國(guó)的年平均柴油需求將在2022年達(dá)到2019年的水平。

EIA預(yù)計(jì)，到2022年和2023年，需求增長(zhǎng)放緩和原油產(chǎn)量增加將有助于降低原油和石油產(chǎn)品價(jià)格。原油價(jià)格是零售汽油和柴油燃料價(jià)格的最大推動(dòng)力。

EIA預(yù)計(jì)，隨著需求增長(zhǎng)放緩，最近下調(diào)的汽油零售價(jià)格將在2022年繼續(xù)下降。他們估計(jì)，2020年汽車(chē)平均汽油消費(fèi)量預(yù)計(jì)下降120萬(wàn)桶/天，而2021年則增加了70萬(wàn)桶/天。他們預(yù)計(jì)，2022年將增加30萬(wàn)桶/天，到2023年將小幅增加不到10萬(wàn)桶/天。

根據(jù)STEO的預(yù)測(cè)，EIA預(yù)計(jì)美國(guó)汽油消費(fèi)量將保持在2019年水平(930萬(wàn)桶/天)以下。

朱佳妮 摘譯自 烴加工新聞

原文如下：

EIA expects gasoline, diesel prices to fall in 2022 and 2023

The EIA expects regular gasoline retail prices to average $3.06/gal in 2022, up from $3.00/gal in 2021, and then down to $2.80/gal in 2023. They expect on-highway diesel prices to increase to average $3.33/gal in 2022 before decreasing to $3.27/gal in 2023. In the EIA's forecast, annual average diesel demand reaches 2019 levels in the U.S. in 2022.

The EIA expects that slower demand growth and increasing crude oil production through 2022 and 2023 will contribute to lower crude oil and petroleum product prices. Crude oil prices are the largest driver of retail gasoline and diesel fuel prices.

In 2022, the EIA expects recently reduced retail gasoline prices to continue to decline as demand growth slows. They estimate that annual average motor gasoline consumption, which fell by an estimated 1.2 MMbpd in 2020, increased by 0.7 MMbpd in 2021. They expect an additional increase of 0.3 MMbpd in 2022 and before a minor increase of less than 0.1 MMbpd in 2023.

The EIA expects U.S. gasoline consumption to remain below 2019 levels (9.3 MMbpd) on an annual basis through the STEO forecast.