據(jù)美國(guó)彭博新聞社紐約報(bào)道，更廉價(jià)的清潔能源時(shí)代已經(jīng)結(jié)束，這給飽受供應(yīng)危機(jī)沖擊的全球能源市場(chǎng)帶來(lái)了新的不確定性。

過(guò)去十年來(lái)，可再生能源的價(jià)格持續(xù)下跌，使其成為世界上大部分地區(qū)最廉價(jià)的電力來(lái)源。然而，去年太陽(yáng)能電池板的價(jià)格飆升了50%以上。 風(fēng)力渦輪機(jī)價(jià)格上漲了13%，電池價(jià)格也首次出現(xiàn)了上漲。

由于疫情導(dǎo)致的供應(yīng)延遲影響了從汽車(chē)到色拉的所有產(chǎn)品，綠色能源的價(jià)格上漲可能并不令人意外。 但船運(yùn)積壓和大宗商品短缺正發(fā)生在風(fēng)能和太陽(yáng)能特別脆弱的時(shí)刻。 經(jīng)過(guò)多年技術(shù)和制造業(yè)的快速發(fā)展，在不犧牲利潤(rùn)的情況下削減成本的機(jī)會(huì)越來(lái)越少。 價(jià)格不會(huì)永遠(yuǎn)下跌，而是會(huì)根據(jù)原材料成本和其他市場(chǎng)力量上下波動(dòng)。  

在綠色轉(zhuǎn)型過(guò)程中，能源市場(chǎng)正努力應(yīng)對(duì)停電和價(jià)格極端波動(dòng)，清潔能源價(jià)格的上漲則是另一個(gè)不確定因素。 政策制定者被指責(zé)過(guò)快增加風(fēng)能和太陽(yáng)能發(fā)電，導(dǎo)致電網(wǎng)變得不穩(wěn)定，他們面臨著壓力，要確保整個(gè)系統(tǒng)更加可靠——例如，通過(guò)將太陽(yáng)能與電池配對(duì)，或讓老化的核電站運(yùn)行更長(zhǎng)時(shí)間。  

IHS Markit清潔技術(shù)和可再生能源執(zhí)行董事Edurne Zoco說(shuō)：“從現(xiàn)在開(kāi)始，對(duì)太陽(yáng)能和風(fēng)能發(fā)展產(chǎn)生影響的將不是成本——你能降低多少成本? ——但是是價(jià)值。”  

新的定價(jià)模式  

美國(guó)銀行分析師朱利安·迪穆林-史密斯說(shuō)，由于各國(guó)央行都在考慮收緊貨幣政策以抑制通脹，更高的利率還可能增加風(fēng)能和太陽(yáng)能項(xiàng)目的成本。  

史密斯說(shuō)，“對(duì)這些高杠桿項(xiàng)目來(lái)說(shuō)，最重要的投入之一就是利率。”他表示，“利率只是連續(xù)下降了10年。”

然而，氣候鷹派不需要擔(dān)心可再生能源的通脹。 即使最近成本上升，風(fēng)能和太陽(yáng)能已經(jīng)從昂貴的、利基的電力來(lái)源發(fā)展到了與化石燃料競(jìng)爭(zhēng)。 在世界上很多地方，可再生能源相對(duì)而言仍比化石燃料便宜，石油和天然氣的價(jià)格在過(guò)去一年里大幅上漲。 從長(zhǎng)期來(lái)看，風(fēng)能和太陽(yáng)能的價(jià)格將繼續(xù)下降，盡管速度會(huì)放緩。 這意味著清潔能源裝置預(yù)計(jì)將在未來(lái)幾年保持快速增加。

盡管如此，可再生能源行業(yè)仍在努力應(yīng)對(duì)供應(yīng)鏈混亂的直接影響。 總部位于佛蒙特州伯靈頓的太陽(yáng)能開(kāi)發(fā)商Encore Renewable Energy LLC的首席執(zhí)行官查德·法雷爾表示，該公司為太陽(yáng)能電池板支付的費(fèi)用已從2020年中期的每瓦特30美分上升到目前的每瓦特35美分。  

挪威著名能源研究公司雷斯塔能源公司高級(jí)分析師大衛(wèi)·迪克森說(shuō)，原材料現(xiàn)在占成品模塊成本的70%，這讓供應(yīng)商幾乎沒(méi)有削減成本的空間。 多晶硅是制造太陽(yáng)能電池板光伏電池的關(guān)鍵材料之一。由于多晶硅短缺，去年的成本增加，運(yùn)輸費(fèi)也上升了。  

美國(guó)風(fēng)能和太陽(yáng)能項(xiàng)目開(kāi)發(fā)商Invenergy負(fù)責(zé)建設(shè)的執(zhí)行副總裁阿爾特·弗萊徹說(shuō)，該公司已經(jīng)被迫推遲了一些項(xiàng)目，因?yàn)闊o(wú)法獲得太陽(yáng)能電池板。 他說(shuō)，盡管運(yùn)輸費(fèi)在去年飆升后開(kāi)始下降，但可再生能源行業(yè)正經(jīng)歷一場(chǎng)轉(zhuǎn)型。“我不相信我們會(huì)回到兩年前的狀態(tài)，”弗萊徹如是說(shuō)。

價(jià)格反彈 

太陽(yáng)能工業(yè)協(xié)會(huì)和伍德麥肯茲去年12月曾預(yù)測(cè)，2022年美國(guó)太陽(yáng)能裝置將減少15%，比該行業(yè)組織去年9月份的預(yù)測(cè)低25%左右。 

迪克森說(shuō)：“我們正處于價(jià)格下降的末端。”“商品價(jià)格將是模塊價(jià)格的唯一決定因素。” 

風(fēng)能行業(yè)正在經(jīng)歷類(lèi)似的轉(zhuǎn)型。彭博新能源財(cái)經(jīng)的數(shù)據(jù)顯示，在截至2020年的10年里，價(jià)格下跌了48%，但現(xiàn)在趨于平穩(wěn)，預(yù)計(jì)到2030年價(jià)格將下跌14%。

彭博新能源財(cái)經(jīng)風(fēng)能分析師奧利弗?梅特卡夫表示：“這是可再生能源行業(yè)日趨成熟的跡象。”  

制造商將繼續(xù)通過(guò)增加裝置來(lái)降低每兆瓦成本。 然而，這些幾乎和法國(guó)埃菲爾鐵塔一樣高的巨型風(fēng)力渦輪機(jī)需要更多的材料，尤其是鋼鐵。2021年，鋼鐵價(jià)格飆升，未來(lái)幾年可能仍將昂貴。 2021年下半年，供應(yīng)鏈問(wèn)題使陸上風(fēng)力渦輪機(jī)的價(jià)格上漲了9%。 

在一些地區(qū)，開(kāi)發(fā)商已經(jīng)在最佳位置安裝了風(fēng)力渦輪機(jī)，現(xiàn)在正在尋找那些風(fēng)力較少的地區(qū)或面積較小的地點(diǎn)。 這意味著開(kāi)發(fā)商可能會(huì)使用專(zhuān)為低風(fēng)速設(shè)計(jì)的風(fēng)力渦輪機(jī)，或者推出定價(jià)較低的訂單，這兩種情況都會(huì)導(dǎo)致更高的每兆瓦價(jià)格。

關(guān)鍵大宗商品成本不斷上升，以及供應(yīng)鏈持續(xù)中斷，全球最大的風(fēng)力渦輪機(jī)制造商丹麥維斯塔斯風(fēng)力系統(tǒng)公司去年不得不下調(diào)了其利潤(rùn)預(yù)期。 維斯塔斯風(fēng)力系統(tǒng)公司表示，這個(gè)行業(yè)需要做出一些改變，以提供足夠的風(fēng)力發(fā)電能力，以達(dá)到全球氣候目標(biāo)。 

維斯塔斯風(fēng)力系統(tǒng)公司高級(jí)副總裁莫滕·迪霍爾姆表示：“我們必須在這里豎起一面警告旗。我們需要關(guān)注整個(gè)行業(yè)的盈利能力。”

電池成本  

電池也受到了通貨膨脹的沖擊。彭博新能源財(cái)經(jīng)去年底曾表示，根據(jù)2010年以來(lái)匯編的數(shù)據(jù)，今年電池組的價(jià)格預(yù)計(jì)將首次上漲。 2.3%的漲幅可以歸咎于電池所含金屬價(jià)格的飆升、全球需求的激增以及供應(yīng)鏈的緊張。  

但與風(fēng)能和太陽(yáng)能相比，電池是清潔能源領(lǐng)域較新的組成部分。供應(yīng)商仍在試驗(yàn)新的化學(xué)品并提高產(chǎn)能，這意味著電池仍有更大幅度降價(jià)的空間。

全球可再生能源和儲(chǔ)存數(shù)字應(yīng)用領(lǐng)先開(kāi)發(fā)商Fluence能源公司在越南的合同制造廠已經(jīng)出現(xiàn)了電池運(yùn)輸延誤和成本上升的情況，但該公司預(yù)計(jì)這種情況不會(huì)持續(xù)下去。 

Fluence能源公司首席財(cái)務(wù)官丹尼斯·費(fèi)爾表示：“這些積壓的工作確實(shí)正在得到解決。”  

盡管困擾可再生能源開(kāi)發(fā)商的一些供應(yīng)鏈問(wèn)題正在緩解，但美國(guó)拉扎德投資銀行全球電力、能源和基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施主管喬治·比利奇說(shuō)，這個(gè)行業(yè)正在經(jīng)歷永久性的變化。沒(méi)有任何新的技術(shù)突破或重大整合，價(jià)格正在企穩(wěn)。

“關(guān)于大幅成本下降的故事是，大幅成本下降將不再是故事，” 比利奇如是說(shuō)。  

李峻 編譯自 美國(guó)油價(jià)網(wǎng)

原文如下：

Global inflation brings ever-cheaper clean energy to an end

The era of ever-cheaper clean power is over, giving a fresh jolt of uncertainty to global energy markets battered by one supply crisis after another.

Relentless price declines over the past decade made renewables the cheapest sources of electricity in much of the world. In the past year, though, prices for solar panels have surged more than 50%. Wind turbines are up 13%, and battery prices are rising for the first time ever.

As pandemic-induced supply delays ensnare everything from cars to salads, green energy’s price hikes may not come as a surprise. But shipping backlogs and commodities shortages are coming at a particularly vulnerable moment for wind and solar. After years of rapid-fire advances in technology and manufacturing, there are fewer opportunities left to cut costs without sacrificing profits. Instead of perpetually falling, prices will now ebb and flow based on the cost of raw materials and other market forces.

For energy markets grappling with blackouts and extreme price volatility in the green transition, clean-power inflation is another wild card. Policy makers, accused of adding wind and solar so rapidly that electric grids have become unstable, are under pressure to ensure the entire system is more reliable — by pairing solar with batteries, for example, or keeping aging nuclear plants running for longer.

“From now on, what’s going to make the difference around the expansion of solar and wind is not going to be costs — how low can you go? — but value,” said Edurne Zoco, executive director of clean technology and renewables at research firm IHS Markit Ltd.

New Pricing Pattern

Higher interest rates are also threatening to increase costs for wind and solar projects as central banks weigh tighter monetary policy to curb inflation, said Julien Dumoulin-Smith, an analyst with Bank of America Corp.

“One of the single most important inputs that go into these highly levered projects are rates,” he said. “Interest rates have only gone down for a straight decade.”

Climate hawks need not fear renewable-energy inflation, however. Even with the recent rise in costs, wind and solar have evolved from expensive, niche sources of electricity to become competitive with fossil fuels. Renewables remain cheaper on a relative basis than fossil fuels in much of the world, and prices for oil and natural gas have surged over the past year. Over the long term, prices for wind and solar will continue to decline, albeit at a slower pace. That means clean-energy installations are expected to keep growing rapidly in the coming years.

Still, the industry is wrestling with the immediate effects of supply-chain snarls. Burlington, Vermont-based solar developer Encore Renewable Energy LLC is paying about 35 cents a watt for panels, up from 30 cents in mid-2020, according to Chief Executive Officer Chad Farrell.

Raw materials now account for 70% of the cost of finished modules, leaving suppliers with almost no room to trim expenses, said David Dixon, a senior analyst with research firm Rystad Energy. A shortage of polysilicon, one of the key materials for the photovoltaic cells that make up solar panels, increased expenses last year, and shipping costs also rose.

Invenergy, a U.S. developer of wind and solar projects, has been forced to delay some projects because it can’t get panels, said Art Fletcher, the company’s executive vice president of construction. Though shipping expenses are beginning to decline after jumping last year, the renewables industry as a whole is undergoing a transformation, he said.

“I don’t believe we’re ever going back to where we were two years ago,” Fletcher said.

Price Rebound

The Solar Energy Industries Association and Wood Mackenzie Ltd. forecast last month that U.S. installations will drop 15% in 2022, about 25% below the trade group’s September forecast.

“We’re getting to the tail end of price declines,” said Dixon. “Commodity prices will be the sole determinant of module prices.”

The wind industry is going through a similar transition. Prices plunged 48% in the decade through 2020, but are now leveling off and are expected to slide 14% through 2030, according to BloombergNEF.

“That’s a sign of the industry maturing,” said BNEF wind analyst Oliver Metcalfe.

Manufacturers will continue to reduce per-megawatt costs with larger installations. However, these massive turbines — almost as tall as the Eiffel Tower — require more materials, especially steel, which surged in 2021 and will likely remain costly for the next several years. Supply-chain issues boosted prices for onshore wind turbines 9% in the second half of 2021.

In some regions, developers have already installed turbines in the best locations and now are looking at less breezy areas or smaller sites. That means they may be using turbines designed for slower windspeeds or placing smaller orders, both of which lead to higher per-megawatt prices.

The world’s largest wind turbine maker, Denmark’s Vestas Wind Systems A/S, had to cut its profit forecast last year as it faced rising costs from key commodities and persistent supply-chain disruptions. Something will need to change for the industry to be able to deliver enough wind power capacity to hit the world's climate goals, the company said.

“We have to put up a warning flag here,” said Morten Dyrholm, senior vice president at Vestas. “We need to focus on profitability across the sector.”

Battery Costs

Batteries have also been hit by inflation. BNEF said late last year that it expected prices for battery packs to climb this year for the first time in data going back to 2010. The 2.3% increase can be blamed on soaring prices for the metals batteries contain, booming demand worldwide and strained supply chains.

But compared with wind and solar, batteries are a much newer part of the clean-energy landscape. Suppliers are still experimenting with new chemistries and ramping up production capacity, which means there’s still room for more significant price cuts.

Fluence Energy Inc., a grid-scale storage developer, has seen delays and increased costs to ship batteries from its contract manufacturing facility in Vietnam, but the company doesn’t expect that to last.

“This backlog that has been created is really being worked through,” said Chief Financial Officer Dennis Fehr.

While some of the supply-chain issues bedeviling renewables developers are easing, George Bilicic, head of global power, energy and infrastructure for Lazard Ltd., said the industry is undergoing permanent changes. Without any new technological breakthroughs or major consolidation, prices are stabilizing.

“The story about big cost declines is that large cost declines won't be the story anymore," Bilicic said.

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