? 撒哈拉以南非洲地區(qū)的天然氣日產(chǎn)量預(yù)計(jì)到2030年將增至270萬(wàn)桶油當(dāng)量。  

? 由于全球天然氣需求持續(xù)增長(zhǎng)，進(jìn)口國(guó)面臨供應(yīng)難題，非洲地區(qū)的天然氣生產(chǎn)前景呈現(xiàn)一片光明。  

? 莫桑比克、南非和毛里塔尼亞等國(guó)的未開發(fā)深水氣田可能成為非洲地區(qū)天然氣產(chǎn)量增長(zhǎng)的主要驅(qū)動(dòng)力。 

據(jù)美國(guó)油價(jià)網(wǎng)2月23日?qǐng)?bào)道，挪威著名能源研究和商業(yè)情報(bào)公司雷斯塔能源公司（Rystad）的研究顯示，撒哈拉以南非洲地區(qū)未開發(fā)的天然氣儲(chǔ)量將在2030年前得到釋放，由于大量未開發(fā)的深水資源，非洲地區(qū)天然氣日產(chǎn)量將從去年的130萬(wàn)桶油當(dāng)量增加一倍多，到2030年達(dá)到270萬(wàn)桶油當(dāng)量。  

盡管迄今為止，深水開發(fā)在非洲地區(qū)的液體產(chǎn)量中發(fā)揮著關(guān)鍵作用，平均約占年產(chǎn)量的50%，但此類油田的天然氣產(chǎn)量卻很少。 然而，隨著未來(lái)幾年深海天然氣儲(chǔ)量的激增，這種情況有望改變。 深水開發(fā)項(xiàng)目的日產(chǎn)量將從去年的12萬(wàn)桶油當(dāng)量 (占大陸架和陸地總產(chǎn)量的9%)飆升至100萬(wàn)桶油當(dāng)量 (占總產(chǎn)量的38%)。 

由于全球?qū)μ烊粴獾男枨蟪掷m(xù)上升，以及進(jìn)口國(guó)面臨供應(yīng)難題，非洲地區(qū)的天然氣生產(chǎn)前景呈現(xiàn)一片光明。 深水油氣產(chǎn)量預(yù)計(jì)將在21世紀(jì)30年代進(jìn)一步增長(zhǎng)，到2035年前，天然氣日產(chǎn)量將在5年內(nèi)翻一番，達(dá)到210萬(wàn)桶油當(dāng)量。 根據(jù)估計(jì)的可采儲(chǔ)量、開發(fā)時(shí)間表和計(jì)劃，到2035年前，大陸架和陸地儲(chǔ)量將增加，占該地區(qū)預(yù)計(jì)400萬(wàn)桶油當(dāng)量/天天然氣總產(chǎn)量的46%左右。  

由于蓬勃發(fā)展的生產(chǎn)前景，綠地投資預(yù)計(jì)也將飆升。 去年，非洲地區(qū)天然氣和液體未開發(fā)地區(qū)的資本支出總額為120億美元，其中80億美元用于深水開發(fā)。 到2030年前，總綠地投資將飆升至近400億美元，其中240億美元將用于深水項(xiàng)目。  

未來(lái)幾年，撒哈拉以南非洲地區(qū)的產(chǎn)量預(yù)計(jì)將大幅增加，特別是天然氣產(chǎn)量將大幅增加。 盡管在陸上已經(jīng)獲得了一些顯著的發(fā)現(xiàn)，但深水海上資源的開發(fā)將為非洲地區(qū)帶來(lái)一個(gè)快速增長(zhǎng)的時(shí)期。

撒哈拉以南非洲地區(qū)的天然氣產(chǎn)量一直處于歷史最低水平，但由于莫桑比克、南非和毛里塔尼亞等國(guó)存在大量未開發(fā)的深水氣田，這一狀況有望改變。法國(guó)道達(dá)爾能源公司位于莫桑比克的Area 4 LNG項(xiàng)目的深水油藏預(yù)計(jì)擁有23億桶油當(dāng)量的天然氣儲(chǔ)量，其中1號(hào)生產(chǎn)線和2號(hào)生產(chǎn)線預(yù)計(jì)將于2028年投產(chǎn)。 南非Brulpadda油田的儲(chǔ)量為7.15億桶油當(dāng)量，而英國(guó)石油公司運(yùn)營(yíng)的橫跨毛里塔尼亞和塞內(nèi)加爾海上邊界的Greater Tortue Ahmeyim浮式液化天然氣(FLNG)的儲(chǔ)量估計(jì)為3億桶油當(dāng)量。

目前撒哈拉以南非洲地區(qū)的潛在可采儲(chǔ)量中，約60%位于深水區(qū)，其中近60%為天然氣。 莫桑比克擁有該地區(qū)52%的可采天然氣資源，其次是塞內(nèi)加爾-毛里塔尼亞海域，合計(jì)20%，坦桑尼亞約12%。 尼日利亞還擁有大量可采天然氣儲(chǔ)量，這將有助于預(yù)期產(chǎn)量的增長(zhǎng)。  

另一方面，撒哈拉以南非洲地區(qū)的石油日產(chǎn)量預(yù)計(jì)將在20多年來(lái)首次降至400萬(wàn)桶以下，但將在2028年恢復(fù)，并在2020年恢復(fù)到440萬(wàn)桶左右的水平。 液體日產(chǎn)量預(yù)計(jì)也將在21世紀(jì)30年代增長(zhǎng)，到2035年的總產(chǎn)量約為500萬(wàn)桶。

非洲地區(qū)可開采的深水資源中，液體資源約占40%，其中尼日利亞占33%，安哥拉占31%。 加納和莫桑比克是另外兩個(gè)擁有大量未開發(fā)資源的國(guó)家，分別占該地區(qū)深水液體儲(chǔ)量的8%和7%。  

然而，撒哈拉以南非洲地區(qū)的深水項(xiàng)目存在風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，由于開發(fā)成本高、融資困難、財(cái)政體制問題和其他地面風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，項(xiàng)目可能會(huì)被推遲或不被批準(zhǔn)。 由于各大石油公司繼續(xù)控制上游支出，并推進(jìn)能源轉(zhuǎn)型，以幫助降低排放，許多深水項(xiàng)目在起步階段將面臨挑戰(zhàn)。

總體而言，大型深水項(xiàng)目主要致力于降低上游成本、減少排放、增加可再生能源和能源轉(zhuǎn)型，這意味著在投資分配方面，此類深水項(xiàng)目往往不得不退居二線。 歐洲銀行正在收緊為高排放碳?xì)浠衔镯?xiàng)目融資的規(guī)定，而非洲銀行可能難以提供必要的融資。 

李峻 編譯自 美國(guó)油價(jià)網(wǎng)

原文如下：

Africa To See Gas Supply Boom Through 2030

·     Sub-Sahara Africa is expected to see gas output rise to to 2.7 million boepd in 2030.

·     As global demand for gas continues to rise and importing countries suffer supply headaches, the production outlook for the region is promising.

·     Significant undeveloped deepwater finds in countries including Mozambique, South Africa and Mauritania could become the main drivers for growth.

Untapped natural gas supplies in Sub-Saharan Africa are set to be unleashed this decade, with output more than doubling from 1.3 million barrels of oil equivalent per day (boepd) in 2021 to 2.7 million boepd in 2030 due to vast undeveloped deepwater resources, Rystad Energy research shows.

While deepwater developments have played a crucial role in the region’s liquids output to date, averaging about 50% of annual production, gas output from such fields has been minimal. That is expected to change, however, as gas from deepwater reserves will surge in the coming years. Production from deepwater developments will skyrocket from 120,000 boepd in 2021, 9% of total output including shelf and land production, to 1 million boepd accounting for 38% of total output.

As global demand for gas continues to rise and importing countries suffer supply headaches, the production outlook for the region is promising. Deepwater production is projected to grow further in the 2030s, with gas output more than doubling in five years to 2.1 million boepd by 2035. Gas from shelf and land reserves will increase by 2035 and will contribute about 46% of the expected 4 million boepd of total gas output from the region, based on estimated recoverable reserves, development timelines and plans.

As a result of the booming production outlook, greenfield investments are also projected to soar. Gas and liquids greenfield capital expenditure in the region totaled $12 billion in 2021, with $8 billion spent on deepwater developments. By 2030, total greenfield investments will surge to almost $40 billion, of which $24 billion will go on deepwater projects.

“Production in Sub-Saharan Africa is expected to increase significantly in the coming years, with natural gas output in particular set to see a boom in output. Although there have been notable onshore finds, the development of deepwater offshore resources is going to usher in a period of rapid growth for the region,” says Siva Prasad, senior upstream analyst with Rystad Energy.

Natural gas production in Sub-Saharan Africa has been historically low, but that looks set to change due to significant undeveloped deepwater finds in countries including Mozambique, South Africa and Mauritania. Deepwater reservoirs tagged to TotalEnergies’ Area 4 LNG project in Mozambique, where trains 1 and 2 are expected to start production in 2028, hold an estimated 2.3 billion barrels of oil equivalent (boe) in gas reserves. South Africa’s Brulpadda field – also operated by the French major – holds 715 million boe, while the BP-operated Greater Tortue Ahmeyim floating liquefied natural gas (FLNG) development straddling the maritime boundary of Mauritania and Senegal has an estimated 300 million boe.

Of the current potential recoverable reserves across Sub-Saharan Africa, about 60% lie in deepwater regions, of which close to 60% is gas. Mozambique dominates with 52% of the total recoverable gas resources in the area, followed by the Senegal–Mauritania maritime region with a combined 20% and Tanzania with about 12%. Nigeria also holds significant recoverable reserves of gas that will contribute to the expected output hike.

On the flip side, Sub-Saharan African liquids production is expected to drop below 4 million barrels per day (bpd) for the first time in more than 20 years but will recover by 2028 and return to 2020 levels of around 4.4 million bpd by the end of the decade. Liquids output is projected to grow in the 2030s, too, with total production of approximately 5 million bpd in 2035.

about 40% of the total recoverable deepwater resources in the region are liquids, of which Nigeria accounts for 33% and Angola has 31%. Ghana and Mozambique are two other countries with significant untapped resources, amounting to 8% and 7%, respectively, of the region’s deepwater liquids reserves.

Deepwater projects in Sub-Saharan Africa are, however, risky and can be delayed or unsanctioned due to high development costs, challenges accessing financing, issues with fiscal regimes and other above-ground risks. With majors continuing to rein in upstream spending and plow a course on the energy transition to help lower emissions, many deepwater schemes will face challenges getting off the drawing board.

Majors are, overall, focused on cutting upstream costs, reducing emissions, increasing renewables and the energy transition, meaning such deepwater projects often have to take a backseat when it comes to apportioning investment. European banks are tightening regulations for funding high-emission hydrocarbon projects, and African banks could struggle to provide the necessary financing.