據(jù)油價(jià)網(wǎng)3月16日消息稱，能源技術(shù)研究咨詢公司Thunder Said Energy周三在一份報(bào)告中表示，能源大宗商品價(jià)格的上漲預(yù)計(jì)將推動(dòng)全球一次能源支出占全球國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值(GDP)的比例升至創(chuàng)紀(jì)錄的13%，相當(dāng)于1979年-1980年能源危機(jī)時(shí)的能源成本水平。

該咨詢公司指出，預(yù)計(jì)13%的創(chuàng)紀(jì)錄能源支出將是1900年至2020年間4%的平均水平的三倍，是2018年水平的1.3倍。

自20世紀(jì)初以來，一次能源支出平均占全球GDP的4%，在第一次石油危機(jī)后上升到8%，在第二次石油危機(jī)后上升到13%，2008年為10%，在2013-2015年價(jià)格上漲時(shí)為8%-10%。

Thunder Said Energy指出，作為全球GDP一部分的一部分，能源支出預(yù)計(jì)將達(dá)到創(chuàng)紀(jì)錄水平，其假設(shè)價(jià)格為每噸煤250美元-300美元、每桶原油125美元-150美元、全球天然氣40美元-45美元/千立方英尺。

Thunder Said Energy分析師兼首席執(zhí)行官Rob West在報(bào)告中寫道：“所以這不是‘石油沖擊’或‘天然氣沖擊’，而是‘一切沖擊’。”

曹海斌 摘譯自 油價(jià)網(wǎng)

原文如下：

Energy Spending To Hit Record 13% Of Global GDP In 2022

Rallying energy commodity prices are expected to drive up primary energy expenditures globally to a record 13 percent of world gross domestic product (GDP), comparable to the energy cost levels in the 1979-80 energy crisis, research consultancy for energy technologies Thunder Said Energy said in a report on Wednesday.  

The expected record 13-percent energy expenditure would be three times the average level of 4 percent between 1900 and 2020, and 1.3 times the 2018 levels, the consultancy noted.

Since the beginning of the 20th century, primary energy expenditures have averaged 4 percent of global GDP, rising to 8 percent after the first oil shock, 13 percent after the second oil shock, 10 percent in 2008, and 8-10 percent in 2013-2015, when prices were high.

The estimate of a record energy expenditure as part of global GDP assumes prices of $250-$300 per ton of coal, $125-$150 per barrel of crude oil, and $40-45/mcf price of global natural gas, Thunder Said Energy noted.

"So this is not an 'oil shock' or a 'gas shock' but an 'everything shock'," Rob West, Analyst & CEO at Thunder Said Energy, wrote in the report.