據(jù)油價(jià)網(wǎng)5月6日?qǐng)?bào)道，分析師表示，未來幾周，春季天氣比往常更熱，夏季預(yù)計(jì)將更熱，以及創(chuàng)紀(jì)錄的液化天然氣出口有助于歐洲減少對(duì)進(jìn)口天然氣的依賴，可能會(huì)推動(dòng)美國(guó)基準(zhǔn)天然氣價(jià)格在未來幾周升至每百萬英熱單位10美元以上。

本周早些時(shí)候，亨利中心天然氣價(jià)格觸及逾8美元/百萬英熱單位的13年高點(diǎn)，空調(diào)需求增加導(dǎo)致價(jià)格上漲。

截至美國(guó)東部時(shí)間周五上午9:50，天然氣價(jià)格為8.693美元/百萬英熱單位，當(dāng)天下跌1.02%。

此外，美國(guó)儲(chǔ)存的天然氣水平遠(yuǎn)低于每年這個(gè)時(shí)候的平均水平。

根據(jù)NatGasWeather對(duì)天然氣需求的估計(jì)，美國(guó)南部將非常溫暖，最高溫度將達(dá)到70～90華氏度，本周末到下周初西南沙漠、得克薩斯州和美國(guó)平原將達(dá)到近100華氏度。

NatGasWeather指出:“從本周末到下周，美國(guó)中西部和東部將出現(xiàn)更溫暖的天氣，最高氣溫將達(dá)到60至70華氏度。”

“如果產(chǎn)量沒有顯著提高，且這種高溫持續(xù)存在下去，那么市場(chǎng)將會(huì)無法應(yīng)對(duì)。”

“如果這種情況屬實(shí)，我們認(rèn)為未來幾周現(xiàn)貨價(jià)格很容易突破10美元，除非供應(yīng)大幅增加?！?/p>

與此同時(shí)，美國(guó)能源信息署(EIA)上月表示，由于供暖需求上升和創(chuàng)紀(jì)錄的液化天然氣出口，在去年冬天存儲(chǔ)量超過正常水平后，美國(guó)的天然氣儲(chǔ)量將在今冬末降至三年來的最低水平。

EIA最新的天然氣周報(bào)告顯示，截至4月29日當(dāng)周，可用天然氣庫存總計(jì)1.567億立方英尺，較上年同期下降20%，較本周5年(2017-2021年)平均水平下降16%。

季廷偉 摘譯自 油價(jià)網(wǎng)

原文如下：

U.S. Natural Gas Prices Could Soon Hit $10

Warmer than usual spring weather, expectations of a hotter summer, and record LNG exports to help Europe reduce dependence on imported gas could send the U.S. benchmark natural gas prices to above $10 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) in the coming weeks, analysts say.

Earlier this week, the front-month Henry Hub benchmark price hit a 13-year high of over $8/MMBtu, as prices rallied amid increased demand for air conditioning.

As of 9:50 a.m. EST on Friday, the natural gas price was at $8.693/MMBtu, down 1.02% on the day.

Moreover, the levels of natural gas in storage across the United States are well below average for this time of the year.

The southern U.S. will be very warm to hot with highs of 70s to 90s, including highs near 100°F across Southwest deserts, Texas, and the S. Plains this weekend into the start of next week, according to an estimate from NatGasWeather of natural gas demand.

“Warmer conditions will spread across the Midwest and eastern US late this weekend into next week with high 60s and 70s,” NatGasWeather notes. 

“Without production making significant gains, the market will not be able to handle things if this kind of heat sticks around,” Bespoke Weather Services says, as carried by Natural Gas Intelligence.

“If that pans out, we feel we easily can go over $10 in prompt-month [pricing] over the next several weeks, barring massive supply gains,” Bespoke added.

At the same time, higher demand for heating and record LNG exports left U.S. natural gas in storage at the end of the winter at its lowest level in three years, after larger-than-normal storage withdrawals this past winter, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) said last month.

The EIA’s latest weekly natural gas report showed that working natural gas stocks totaled 1,567 Bcf in the week to April 29, which is 20% lower than the year-ago level and 16% lower than the five-year (2017–2021) average for this week.