高盛投資公司認(rèn)為，強(qiáng)勁的需求增長可能會讓布倫特原油價(jià)格在2023年第四季度攀升至105美元

高盛投資公司認(rèn)為，由于歐佩克+干預(yù)石油市場的能力，石油市場的下行空間有限

據(jù)油價(jià)網(wǎng)2023年1月10日報(bào)道，高盛投資公司表示，全球石油需求的強(qiáng)勁增長將推動油價(jià)今年突破100美元，布倫特原油價(jià)格到今年第四季度可能達(dá)到每桶105美元。

這家美國投資銀行在《國家報(bào)》(the National)上發(fā)表的一份報(bào)告中稱，2023年世界石油日需求將增加270萬桶，市場需求將在今年下半年重新出現(xiàn)赤字。

周一油價(jià)上漲4%。至少在這一天，市場參與者關(guān)注的是石油需求的光明前景，而不是發(fā)達(dá)經(jīng)濟(jì)體即將出現(xiàn)經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退的擔(dān)憂。

高盛投資公司表示，對今年需求強(qiáng)勁增長的預(yù)期，應(yīng)能讓歐佩克+集團(tuán)在2023年下半年解除去年10月宣布的減產(chǎn)措施。

但高盛投資銀行表示，如果需求低于預(yù)期，歐佩克+“可能會堅(jiān)持去年10月份的減產(chǎn)，或進(jìn)一步減產(chǎn)，因?yàn)槠渚哂袕?qiáng)大的定價(jià)權(quán)”。

高盛投資公司指出：“總體而言，‘歐佩克賣出期權(quán)’限制了我們看漲油價(jià)預(yù)測的下行風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。” 

去年12月中旬，高盛投資公司表示，供應(yīng)短缺和對新供應(yīng)的投資不足將導(dǎo)致2023年大宗商品迎來豐收之年。

李峻 編譯自 油價(jià)網(wǎng)

原文如下：

Goldman Sachs: Oil Prices To Hit $105 On Solid Demand Growth

·     Goldman Sachs believes solid demand growth could send Brent climbing to $105 by the fourth quarter of 2023.

·     Goldman Sachs believes the downside for oil markets is limited due to the ability of OPEC+ to intervene in oil markets.

Solid growth in global oil demand is set to drive oil prices to above $100 this year and Brent Crude could trade at $105 per barrel by the fourth quarter, according to Goldman Sachs.  

World oil demand is set to increase by 2.7 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2023 and the market would return to deficit in the second half of the year, the U.S. investment bank said in a note carried by The National.

Oil prices jumped by 4% on Monday. Market participants focused – at least for a day – on brighter prospects of oil demand, instead of on fears that recessions in developed economies are imminent.

Expectations of solid demand growth this year should allow the OPEC+ group to unwind in the second half of 2023 the production cut announced in October, Goldman Sachs said.

But if demand is softer than predicted, OPEC+ “could stick to its October cuts or cut production even further, given its significant pricing power,” the bank said.

In mid-December, Goldman said that supply shortages and insufficient investment in new supply would result in a bumper year for commodities in 2023.