據(jù)油價(jià)網(wǎng)2023年6月5日?qǐng)?bào)道，分析師在本周末歐佩克+會(huì)議結(jié)束后表示，由于沙特阿拉伯6月4日宣布減產(chǎn)100萬(wàn)桶的消息將進(jìn)一步收緊全球石油市場(chǎng)，布倫特原油價(jià)格可能在今年年底前達(dá)到每桶100美元。

歐佩克+產(chǎn)油國(guó)決定將目前的減產(chǎn)目標(biāo)維持到2024年底，而歐佩克最大的產(chǎn)油國(guó)和世界最大的原油出口國(guó)沙特阿拉伯表示，將在7月份自愿再次將原油日產(chǎn)量減少100萬(wàn)桶，至900萬(wàn)桶左右。沙特阿拉伯能源大臣阿卜杜勒阿齊茲親王周日表示，沙特阿拉伯的減產(chǎn)可能會(huì)延長(zhǎng)到7月以后，他把歐佩克+宣布的減產(chǎn)決定描述為“沙特棒棒糖”。

澳大利亞聯(lián)邦銀行分析師Vivek Dhar在路透社發(fā)表的一份報(bào)告中稱，“由于沙特阿拉伯通過(guò)減產(chǎn)來(lái)保護(hù)油價(jià)不跌至過(guò)低水平，我們認(rèn)為今年晚些時(shí)候石油市場(chǎng)更容易出現(xiàn)供應(yīng)短缺”。

Dhar補(bǔ)充說(shuō)，即使今年下半年亞洲的石油需求沒(méi)有預(yù)期的那么強(qiáng)勁，到今年第四季度，布倫特原油期貨價(jià)格也將升至每桶85美元。

6月5日歐洲早盤(pán)，布倫特原油交易價(jià)格為每桶77美元，當(dāng)日上漲1%。

澳新銀行(ANZ)分析師Daniel Hynes和Soni Kumari重申了今年年底布倫特原油價(jià)格目標(biāo)為每桶100美元，并表示：“投資者可能會(huì)增加看漲押注，因?yàn)樗麄兿嘈牛绻袌?chǎng)遇到任何障礙，沙特阿拉伯和歐佩克將提供支撐。”

澳新銀行指出：“現(xiàn)在看來(lái)，今年下半年石油市場(chǎng)的供應(yīng)將更加緊張。”

高盛公司預(yù)計(jì)今年12月份布倫特原油價(jià)格為每桶95美元，并將歐佩克+6月會(huì)議延長(zhǎng)減產(chǎn)決定描述為“適度看漲”，抵消了一些看跌的下行風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。 

李峻 編譯自 油價(jià)網(wǎng)

原文如下：

Analysts Reiterate Calls For $100 Oil As Saudi Arabia Cuts Production

Brent prices could hit $100 by the end of this year as the new 1 million bpd production cut Saudi Arabia announced on Sunday would further tighten the oil market, analysts said after the OPEC+ meeting this weekend.

The OPEC+ producers decided to keep the current cuts until the end of 2024, while OPEC’s top producer and the world’s largest crude oil exporter, Saudi Arabia, said it would voluntarily reduce its production by 1 million bpd in July, to around 9 million bpd. The Saudi cut could be extended beyond July, Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz said on Sunday, describing the announced reduction as a “Saudi lollipop.”

“With Saudi Arabia protecting oil prices from sliding too low by cutting production, we think oil markets are now more prone to a shortfall later this year,” Commonwealth Bank of Australia analyst Vivek Dhar said in a note carried by Reuters.  

Even if China’s oil demand is not as strong in the second half of this year as expected, Brent Crude futures are set to rise to $85 per barrel by the fourth quarter of 2023, Dhar added.

Early on Monday in Europe, Brent Crude traded at $77 per barrel, up by 1% on the day.

ANZ analysts Daniel Hynes and Soni Kumari reiterated their $100 per barrel Brent target for the end of the year, saying that “Investors are likely to add bullish bets, comfortable that Saudi Arabia and OPEC will provide a backstop should the market hit any hurdles.”

“The oil market now looks like it will be even tighter in the second half of the year,” ANZ noted.