據油價網2023年6月26日報道，沙特可能會考慮從7月開始大幅削減對美國的原油出口，以影響世界上關鍵石油市場的緊縮。

彭博新聞社“觀點”專欄作家Javier Blas認為，由于沙特準備在7月份單方面將原油日產量再削減100萬桶，沙特對西方的原油出口可能比對其主要市場亞洲的出口受到更大影響。

近幾年來，沙特阿拉伯多次大幅減少對美國的原油出口，試圖收緊美國市場，美國每周都會報告原油和石油產品庫存數據。

6月初，歐佩克+產油國決定將目前的減產維持到2024年底，但歐佩克最大產油國沙特表示，將在7月份自愿將原油日產量再減產100萬桶至約900萬桶。沙特能源大臣薩勒曼表示，減產可能會延長至7月以后。

7月份原油產量水平將是沙特自2011年以來最低水平，不包括2020年疫情暴發后初步減產，以及2019年9月沙特阿美設施遭遇襲擊后的減產。

據報道，即使在沙特阿拉伯宣布將在今年7月減產之后，全球最大的原油出口商沙特阿拉伯國家石油公司（沙特阿美）仍向至少五家亞洲北部煉油廠保證，他們7月份將獲得合同規定的全部原油數量。

沙特阿美可能會優先向其看重的亞洲市場供應原油，從而減少對美國的出口，從而迫使市場收緊供應，這一點在庫存報告中可以明顯看出。此外，彭博社的Blas指出，沙特阿美還控制著美國產能最大的莫蒂瓦煉油廠，并可能影響具有日加工63萬桶原油能力亞瑟港煉油廠的供應。

李峻 譯自 油價網

原文如下：

Saudi Arabia Could Slash Oil Supply To The U.S.

Saudi Arabia could be looking to slash crude oil shipments to the United States from next month to effect a tightening of the world’s most key oil market.

As the Kingdom prepares to cut unilaterally 1 million barrels per day (bpd) from its crude oil production in July, its crude shipments to the west could be much more affected than exports to its primary market, Asia, Bloomberg Opinion columnist Javier Blas argues.

On several occasions in recent years, Saudi Arabia has significantly lowered crude shipments to the United States in attempts to tighten the U.S. market, which reports oil and products data on a weekly basis.

Early this month, the OPEC+ producers decided to keep the current cuts until the end of 2024, but OPEC’s top producer, Saudi Arabia, said it would voluntarily reduce its production by 1 million bpd in July, to around 9 million bpd. The cut could be extended beyond July, Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman said.  

The production level in July would be Saudi Arabia’s lowest since 2011, excluding the initial cuts after the Covid outbreak in 2020 and the lowered production after the attack on Aramco’s facilities in September 2019.

Even after the production cut Saudi Arabia announced for July 2023, Aramco, the world’s largest crude oil exporter, reportedly assured at least five North Asian refiners they would get the full crude volumes they had asked for in July.

Prioritizing supply to its prized Asian markets, Aramco could lower shipments to the U.S., to force a tightening of the market that would be evident in inventory reports. Moreover, Aramco controls the largest refinery by capacity in the U.S., Motiva, and could influence supply to the 630,000-bpd facility in Port Arthur, too, Bloomberg’s Blas notes.